42 resultados para Holt-Winters
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In der Seezungen-Stellnetzfischerei waren in den zurückliegenden Jahren regelmäßig die beiden ersten Monate der fangsaison die ertragreichsten. Spitzenfänge wurden sogar nur in den ersten drei bis vier Wochen erzielt. Danach gingen die Fangmengen stetig zurück. Deshalb ist eine genaue Beobachtung des Saisonbeginns sowie auch ihres weiteren Verlaufs für eine erfolgreiche Seezungenfischerei außerordentlich wichtig.
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This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.
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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): In the mountainous western United States, winter weather has consequences for the entire year, especially with respect to the use of water. For most of the past 6-8 years, drought has been a persistent feature of the climate.
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The migratory population of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) (>400 mm total length[TL]) spends winter in the Atlantic Ocean off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts of the United States. Information on trophic dynamics for these large adults during winter is limited. Feeding habits and prey were described from stomach contents of 1154 striped bass ranging from 373 to 1250 mm TL, collected from trawls during winters of 1994-96, 2000, and 2002-03, and from the recreational fishery during 2005-07. Nineteen prey species were present in the diet. Overall, Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) and bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli) dominated the diet by boimass (67.9%) and numerically (68.6%). The percent biomass of Atlantic menhaden during 1994-2003 to 87.0% during 2005-07. Demersal fish species such as Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) and spot (Leiostomus xanthurus) represented <15% of the diet biomass, whereas alosines (Alosa spp.) were rarely observed. Invertebrates were least important, contributing <1.0% by biomass and numerically. Striped bass are capable of feeding on a wide range of prey sizes (2% to 43% of their total length). This study outlines the importance of clupeoid fishes to striped bass winter production and also shows that predation may be exerting pressure on one of their dominant prey, the Atlantic menhaden.
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The spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) is considered a key species relative to the implementation of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). One of the goals of the CERP is to increase freshwater flows to Florida Bay. Increased freshwater flows can have potential positive and negative impacts on spotted seatrout populations. At low salinities, the planktonic eggs of spotted seatrout sink to the bottom and are not viable (Alshuth and Gilmore, 1994; Holt and Holt, 2002). On the other hand, increased freshwater flows can alleviate hypersaline conditions that could result in an expansion of the distribution of the early life stages of spotted seatrout (Thayer et al., 1999; Florida Department of Environmental Protection1). Thus it would be useful to develop a monitoring program that can detect changes in seatrout abundance on time scales short enough to be useful to resource managers. The NOAA Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research (NOAA) has made sporadic collections of juvenile seatrout using otter trawls since 1984 (see Powell et al, 2004). The results suggest that it might be useful to sample for seatrout in as many as eight different areas or basins (Figure 1): Bradley Key, Sandy Key, Johnson Key, Palm Key, Snake Bight, Central, Whipray and Crocodile Dragover. Unfortunately, logistical constraints are likely to limit the number of tows to about 40 per month over a period of six months each year. Inasmuch as few seatrout are caught in any given tow and the proportion of tows with zero seatrout is often high, it is important to determine how best to allocate this limited sampling effort among the various basins so that any trends in abundance may be detected with sufficient statistical confidence. (PDF contains 16 pages)
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The health and continued existence of coral reef ecosystems are threatened by an increasing array of environmental and anthropogenic impacts. Coral disease is one of the prominent causes of increased mortality among reefs globally, particularly in the Caribbean. Although over 40 different coral diseases and syndromes have been reported worldwide, only a few etiological agents have been confirmed; most pathogens remain unknown and the dynamics of disease transmission, pathogenicity and mortality are not understood. Causal relationships have been documented for only a few of the coral diseases, while new syndromes continue to emerge. Extensive field observations by coral biologists have provided substantial documentation of a plethora of new pathologies, but our understanding, however, has been limited to descriptions of gross lesions with names reflecting these observations (e.g., black band, white band, dark spot). To determine etiology, we must equip coral diseases scientists with basic biomedical knowledge and specialized training in areas such as histology, cell biology and pathology. Only through combining descriptive science with mechanistic science and employing the synthesis epizootiology provides will we be able to gain insight into causation and become equipped to handle the pending crisis. One of the critical challenges faced by coral disease researchers is to establish a framework to systematically study coral pathologies drawing from the field of diagnostic medicine and pathology and using generally accepted nomenclature. This process began in April 2004, with a workshop titled Coral Disease and Health Workshop: Developing Diagnostic Criteria co-convened by the Coral Disease and Health Consortium (CDHC), a working group organized under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, and the International Registry for Coral Pathology (IRCP). The workshop was hosted by the U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) in Madison, Wisconsin and was focused on gross morphology and disease signs observed in the field. A resounding recommendation from the histopathologists participating in the workshop was the urgent need to develop diagnostic criteria that are suitable to move from gross observations to morphological diagnoses based on evaluation of microscopic anatomy. (PDF contains 92 pages)
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ENGLISH: One primary duty of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission is to estimate the maximum sustainable catches of yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and to investigate and recommend proposals to maintain the stocks at levels which will permit these catches to be obtained. To do this, there is required some means of predicting yields relative to fishing intensity. . . The age composition of catch, and growth rate of yellowfin tuna for recent years have now been estimated (Hennemuth, 1961). In this paper, relative abundance at age of yellowfin tuna shall be estimated -and used, in turn, to estimate total mortality rate. Yield-per-recruit calculations, based on Beverton and Holt's (1957) simple equation, will be presented to compare present utilization with theoretical maxima under varying levels of fishing mortality and different ages at first capture. SPANISH: Uno de los principales deberes de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical es estimar las pescas máximas sostenibles de los atunes aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) , así como estudiar y recomendar proposiciones para mantener los stocks a niveles que permitan obtener estas pescas. Para lograr este propósito se requieren algunos medios que permitan predecir el rendimiento en relación con la intensidad de la pesca. . La composición de edades de la pesca y la tasa de crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla en años recientes han sido estimadas ahora (Hennemuth, 1961). En este trabajo, la abundancia relativa a una edad dada de esta especie será estimada y usada, a su vez, para estimar la tasa de mortalidad total. Los cálculos del rendimiento por recluta, basados en la ecuación simple de Beverton y Holt (1957), serán presentados para comparar la utilización actual con los máximos teóricos bajo valores variables de mortalidad por la pesca y a diferentes edades a la primera captura.
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ENGLISH: Age composition of catch, and growth rate, of yellowfin tuna have been estimated by Hennemuth (1961a) and Davidoff (1963). The relative abundance and instantaneous total mortality rate of yellowfin tuna during 1954-1959 have been estimated by Hennenmuth (1961b). It is now possible to extend this work, because more data are available; these include data for 1951-1954, which were previously not available, and data for 1960-1962, which were collected subsequent to Hennemuth's (1961b) publication. In that publication, Hennemuth estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate (Z) during the entire time period a year class is present in the fishery following full recruitment. However, this method may lead to biased estimates of abundance, and hence mortality rates, because of both seasonal migrations into or out of specific fishing areas and possible seasonal differences in availability or vulnerability of the fish to the fishing gear. Schaefer, Chatwin and Broadhead (1961) and Joseph etl al. (1964) have indicated that seasonal migrations of yellowfin occur. A method of estimating mortality rates which is not biased by seasonal movements would be of value in computations of population dynamics. The method of analysis outlined and used in the present paper may obviate this bias by comparing the abundance of an individual yellowfin year class, following its period of maximum abundance, in an individual area during a specific quarter of the year with its abundance in the same area one year later. The method was suggested by Gulland (1955) and used by Chapman, Holt and Allen (1963) in assessing Antarctic whale stocks. This method, and the results of its use with data for yellowfin caught in the eastern tropical Pacific from 1951-1962 are described in this paper. SPANISH: La composición de edad de la captura, y la tasa de crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla, han sido estimadas por Hennemuth (1961a) y Davidoff (1963). Hennemuth (1961b), estimó la abundancia relativa y la tasa de mortalidad total instantánea del atún aleta amarilla durante 1954-1959. Se puede ampliar ahora, este trabajo, porque se dispone de más datos; éstos incluyen datos de 1951 1954, de los cuales no se disponía antes, y datos de 1960-1962 que fueron recolectados después de la publicación de Hennemuth (1961b). En esa obra, Hennemuth estimó la tasa de mortalidad total instantánea (Z) durante todo el período de tiempo en el cual una clase anual está presente en la pesquería, consecutiva al reclutamiento total. Sin embargo, este método puede conducir a estimaciones con bias (inclinación viciada) de abundancia, y de aquí las tasas de mortalidad, debidas tanto a migraciones estacionales dentro o fuera de las áreas determinadas de pesca, como a posibles diferencias estacionales en la disponibilidad y vulnerabilidad de los peces al equipo de pesca. Schaefer, Chatwin y Broadhead (1961) y Joseph et al. (1964) han indicado que ocurren migraciones estacionales de atún aleta amarilla. Un método para estimar las tasas de mortalidad el cual no tuviera bias debido a los movimientos estacionales, sería de valor en los cómputos de la dinámica de las poblaciones. El método de análisis delineado y usado en el presente estudio puede evitar este bias al comparar la abundancia de una clase anual individual de atún aleta amarilla, subsecuente a su período de abundancia máxima en un área individual, durante un trimestre específico del año, con su abundancia en la misma área un año más tarde. Este método fue sugerido por Gulland (1955) y empleado por Chapman, Holt y Allen (1963) en la declaración de los stocks de la ballena antártica. Este método y los resultados de su uso, en combinación con los datos del atún aleta amarilla capturado en el Pacífico oriental tropical desde 1951-1962, son descritos en este estudio.
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From 1974 through 1983, we conducted monitoring to provide the first long-term, year-round record of sea water temperatures south of New England from surface to bottom, and from nearshore to the continental slope. Expendable bathythermograph transects were made approximately monthly during the ten years by scientists and technicians from numerous institutions, working on research vessels that traversed the continental shelf off southern New England. Ten-year (1974-83) means and variability are presented for coastal and bottom water temperatures, for mid-shelf water column temperatures, and for some atmospheric and oceanographic conditions that may influence shelf and upper-slope water temperatures. Possible applications of ocean temperature monitoring to fishery ecology are noted. Some large departures from mean conditions are discussed; particularly notable during the decade were the response of water temperatures to the passage of Gulf Stream warm-core rings, and the magnitude and persistence of shelf-water cooling associated with air temperatures in three successive very cold winters (1976-77, 1977-78, and 1978-79). (PDF file contains 51 pages.)
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Four groups of fin clipped brown trout (Salmo trutta) fingerlings were planted in Hot Creek over a six year period. Survival and growth were estimated by fall and/or spring mark-and-recapture surveys. Yield to the angler for two of the tour groups stocked was estimated by stratified random creel surveys. Fingerling survival from the midsummer stocking period to fall averaged 51 %. Overwinter survival from young-of-the-year to yearling fish averaged 49%. Angler harvest of two groups of fingerlings stocked at densities of 16,082 fish/mile averaged 1,704 trout/mile (10.6%) and 194 lbs/acre. Abundant cover and microhabitat suitable tor young trout, ice-free winters, and rapid growth were factors viewed as contributing to high yields. Results do not suggest a change is needed in the general policy of not stocking brown trout fingerlings in California streams. Results do show that fingerlings stocked in Hot Creek, and presumably other productive streams with abundant cover, can effectively fill a void created by limited recruitment. (PDF contains 24 pages.)
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ENGLISH: From morphometric data, tagging results and reaction of the stock to fishing, it is inferred that the yellowfin tuna of the Eastern Pacific form a distinct population which intermingles little, if at all, with populations to the westward. Excellent statistics of catch and effort, and records of total catch, available since 1934, during rapid growth of the fishery, have made possible application of a generalized mathematical predator-prey model to estimate the effect of fishing on the population, and the average abundance and yield corresponding to different amounts of fishing effort, and also to estimate the rate of fishing mortality per unit of effort. From serial samples of size composition of catches, and from tagging experiments, it has been possible to determine rates of growth and of total mortality. These kinds of information permit application of the catch-per-recruit model of Beverton and Holt. Combination of the results of application of the Beverton and Holt model and of the generalized predator-prey model, leads to inference of the relationship between stock size and recruitment. The form of the relationship is remarkably similar to the theoretical model developed by W. E. Ricker. These studies, based on the data of the near-surface fishery by baitboats and purse seiners, indicate clearly that the increased intensity of fishing has caused diminution of the stocks to the point where they are somewhat "overfished"-that is, incapable of supporting the maximum sustainable average harvest. SPANISH: De los datos morfométricos, de los resultados de las marcaciones y de la reacción del stock a la pesca, se infiere que el atún aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental forma una población diferente que se mezcla poco, si es que llega a mezclarse, con las poblaciones del oeste. Las excelentes estadísticas de la captura y el esfuerzo y los registros de la pesca global disponibles desde 1934, durante el rápido crecimiento de la pesquería, han hecho posible la aplicación de un modelo matemático generalizado depredador-presa para estimar el efecto de la pesca en la población y el promedio de la abundancia y del rendimiento correspondientes a los diferentes valores del esfuerzo de pesca, y también para estimar la tasa de la mortalidad de pesca por unidad de esfuerzo. Gracias a las muestras en serie de la composición de tamaños de las capturas y a los experimentos de marcación, ha sido posible determinar las tasas del crecimiento y de la mortalidad total. Estos tipos de información permiten la aplicación del modelo de la captura-porrecluta de Beverton y Holt. La combinación de los resultados de la aplicación del modelo de Beverton y Holt y del modelo generalizado depredador-presa, conduce a la inferencia de la relación entre el tamaño del stock y el reclutamiento. La forma de la relación es notoriamente similar al modelo teórico desarrollado por W. E. Ricker. Estos estudios, basados en los datos de la pesquería cerca de la superficie efectuada por barcos de carnada y rederos, indican claramente que el aumento de la intensidad de la pesca ha causado la disminución de los stocks hasta el punto de dejarlos algo "superexplotados", o sea, incapacitados para mantener una producción máxima promedio. (PDF contains 50 pages.)
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Profit maximization in fishery protects cod of western Baltic Sea against overfishing – Only a theoretical approach? The frame for the management of fish stocks politically given contains – apart from ecological and social goals – also an economic goal, which is considered here in particular. From the point of view of fishery enterprises the main management goal for the exploitation of fish stocks is the maximization of profit. There are models for the yield optimization since long time. They are mainly used so far to optimize fishing mortality. Here the Beverton and Holt yield model was used. Apart from the optimization of fishing effort the model was used to optimize age of first capture and thus mesh opening. Starting point of the considerations is a given age group of a fish stock. If this age group is completely fished the yield obtained from this age group is maximized. The investigations show that the term overfishing is not exclusively linked as frequently assumed with a too large fishing mortality, but likewise with a mismatch of the mesh opening. For the calculated example Baltic cod data are used. At present the cod is caught far from reaching its mass optimum. Therefore, the profit of fishery enterprises can in the long term be considerably increased by the optimization of the mesh opening. During the conversion from the state of the art to fishing with optimised mesh sizes, however, a loss of profit has to be expected. The title of the paper sounds provocative. However, the stock of the Baltic Sea cod is better protected by a long-term maximum-profit oriented exploitation than by the precautionary approach applied now.
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This profile covers life history and environmental requirements of both alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and blueback herring (Alosa aestivalis), since their distribution is overlapping and their morphology, ecological role, and environmental requirements are similar. The alewife is an anadromous species found in riverine, estuarine, and Atlantic coastal habitats, depending on life cycle stage, from Newfoundland (Winters et al. 1973) to Soutn Carolina (Berry 1964). Landlocked populations are i n the Great Lakes, Finger Lakes, and many other freshwater lakes (Bigelow and Sch roeder 1953; Scott and Crossman 1973). The blueback herring is an anadromous species found in riverine, estuarine, and Atlantic coastal habitats, depending on life stage cycle, from Nova Scotia to the St. Johns River, Florida (Hildebrand 1963)
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The sandy and muddy bottom of tbe German Waddensea offers a great diversity of secondary substrates to mussel larvae ready to settle. But every substrate with the exception of dead shell material may result in very small mussel colonies only. Large mussel beds of a size up to many hectares depend on aggregations of molluscan shells covering comparably areas of ground. Such shell aggregations are created by extremely cold winters and during years with extended stormy periods.
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Due to the greenhouse effect,a long term warming of the atmosphere is expected. For most people the last relative mild winters and the previous two hot summers are clear signals for such a climatic change. Changes in species compositions and the sudden arrival of southern species in the North Sea are explained as consequences of the greenhouse effect. Comparing the situation in the last decades an attempt is made in this article to show the natural variability in the occurrence and to give an answer to the above question.