Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

A new ground motion intensity measure, peak filtered acceleration (PFA), to estimate collapse vulnerability of buildings in earthquakes

In this thesis, we develop an efficient collapse prediction model, the PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) model, for buildings subjected to different types of ground motions.

For the structural system, the PFA model covers modern steel and reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings (potentially reinforced concrete shear wall buildings). For ground motions, the PFA model covers ramp-pulse-like ground motions, long-period ground motions, and short-period ground motions.

To predict whether a building will collapse in response to a given ground motion, we first extract long-period components from the ground motion using a Butterworth low-pass filter with suggested order and cutoff frequency. The order depends on the type of ground motion, and the cutoff frequency depends on the building’s natural frequency and ductility. We then compare the filtered acceleration time history with the capacity of the building. The capacity of the building is a constant for 2-dimentional buildings and a limit domain for 3-dimentional buildings. If the filtered acceleration exceeds the building’s capacity, the building is predicted to collapse. Otherwise, it is expected to survive the ground motion.

The parameters used in PFA model, which include fundamental period, global ductility and lateral capacity, can be obtained either from numerical analysis or interpolation based on the reference building system proposed in this thesis.

The PFA collapse prediction model greatly reduces computational complexity while archiving good accuracy. It is verified by FEM simulations of 13 frame building models and 150 ground motion records.

Based on the developed collapse prediction model, we propose to use PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) as a new ground motion intensity measure for collapse prediction. We compare PFA with traditional intensity measures PGA, PGV, PGD, and Sa in collapse prediction and find that PFA has the best performance among all the intensity measures.

We also provide a close form in term of a vector intensity measure (PGV, PGD) of the PFA collapse prediction model for practical collapse risk assessment.

On the behavior of pliable plate dynamics in wind : application to vertical axis wind turbines

Numerous studies have shown that flexible materials improve resilience and durability of a structure. Several studies have investigated the behavior of elastic plates under the influence of a free stream, such as studies of the fluttering flag and others of shape reconfiguration, due to a free stream.

The principle engineering contribution of this thesis is the design and development of a vertical axis wind turbine that features pliable blades which undergo various modes of behavior, ultimately leading to rotational propulsion of the turbine. The wind turbine design was tested in a wind tunnel and at the Caltech Laboratory for Optimized Wind Energy. Ultimately, the flexible blade vertical axis wind turbine proved to be an effective way of harnessing the power of the wind.

In addition, this body of work builds on the current knowledge of elastic cantilever plates in a free stream flow by investigating the inverted flag. While previous studies have focused on the fluid structure interaction of a free stream on elastic cantilever plates, none had studied the plate configuration where the trailing edge was clamped, leaving the leading edge free to move. Furthermore, the studies presented in this thesis establish the geometric boundaries of where the large-amplitude flapping occurs.

Magnetic alignment of high-aspect ratio microwires into vertical arrays

Fundamental studies of magnetic alignment of highly anisotropic mesostructures can enable the clean-room-free fabrication of flexible, array-based solar and electronic devices, in which preferential orientation of nano- or microwire-type objects is desired. In this study, ensembles of 100 micron long Si microwires with ferromagnetic Ni and Co coatings are oriented vertically in the presence of magnetic fields. The degree of vertical alignment and threshold field strength depend on geometric factors, such as microwire length and ferromagnetic coating thickness, as well as interfacial interactions, which are modulated by varying solvent and substrate surface chemistry. Microwire ensembles with vertical alignment over 97% within 10 degrees of normal, as measured by X-ray diffraction, are achieved over square cm scale areas and set into flexible polymer films. A force balance model has been developed as a predictive tool for magnetic alignment, incorporating magnetic torque and empirically derived surface adhesion parameters. As supported by these calculations, microwires are shown to detach from the surface and align vertically in the presence of magnetic fields on the order of 100 gauss. Microwires aligned in this manner are set into a polydimethylsiloxane film where they retain their vertical alignment after the field has been removed and can subsequently be used as a flexible solar absorber layer. Finally, these microwires arrays can be protected for use in electrochemical cells by the conformal deposition of a graphene layer.

Acceleration Sensing, Feedback Cooling, and Nonlinear Dynamics with Nanoscale Cavity-Optomechanical Devices

Light has long been used for the precise measurement of moving bodies, but the burgeoning field of optomechanics is concerned with the interaction of light and matter in a regime where the typically weak radiation pressure force of light is able to push back on the moving object. This field began with the realization in the late 1960's that the momentum imparted by a recoiling photon on a mirror would place fundamental limits on the smallest measurable displacement of that mirror. This coupling between the frequency of light and the motion of a mechanical object does much more than simply add noise, however. It has been used to cool objects to their quantum ground state, demonstrate electromagnetically-induced-transparency, and modify the damping and spring constant of the resonator. Amazingly, these radiation pressure effects have now been demonstrated in systems ranging 18 orders of magnitude in mass (kg to fg).

In this work we will focus on three diverse experiments in three different optomechanical devices which span the fields of inertial sensors, closed-loop feedback, and nonlinear dynamics. The mechanical elements presented cover 6 orders of magnitude in mass (ng to fg), but they all employ nano-scale photonic crystals to trap light and resonantly enhance the light-matter interaction. In the first experiment we take advantage of the sub-femtometer displacement resolution of our photonic crystals to demonstrate a sensitive chip-scale optical accelerometer with a kHz-frequency mechanical resonator. This sensor has a noise density of approximately 10 micro-g/rt-Hz over a useable bandwidth of approximately 20 kHz and we demonstrate at least 50 dB of linear dynamic sensor range. We also discuss methods to further improve performance of this device by a factor of 10.

In the second experiment, we used a closed-loop measurement and feedback system to damp and cool a room-temperature MHz-frequency mechanical oscillator from a phonon occupation of 6.5 million down to just 66. At the time of the experiment, this represented a world-record result for the laser cooling of a macroscopic mechanical element without the aid of cryogenic pre-cooling. Furthermore, this closed-loop damping yields a high-resolution force sensor with a practical bandwidth of 200 kHZ and the method has applications to other optomechanical sensors.

The final experiment contains results from a GHz-frequency mechanical resonator in a regime where the nonlinearity of the radiation-pressure interaction dominates the system dynamics. In this device we show self-oscillations of the mechanical element that are driven by multi-photon-phonon scattering. Control of the system allows us to initialize the mechanical oscillator into a stable high-amplitude attractor which would otherwise be inaccessible. To provide context, we begin this work by first presenting an intuitive overview of optomechanical systems and then providing an extended discussion of the principles underlying the design and fabrication of our optomechanical devices.

Dynamic Stall on Vertical Axis Wind Turbines

In this study the dynamics of flow over the blades of vertical axis wind turbines was investigated using a simplified periodic motion to uncover the fundamental flow physics and provide insight into the design of more efficient turbines. Time-resolved, two-dimensional velocity measurements were made with particle image velocimetry on a wing undergoing pitching and surging motion to mimic the flow on a turbine blade in a non-rotating frame. Dynamic stall prior to maximum angle of attack and a leading edge vortex development were identified in the phase-averaged flow field and captured by a simple model with five modes, including the first two harmonics of the pitch/surge frequency identified using the dynamic mode decomposition. Analysis of these modes identified vortical structures corresponding to both frequencies that led the separation and reattachment processes, while their phase relationship determined the evolution of the flow.

Detailed analysis of the leading edge vortex found multiple regimes of vortex development coupled to the time-varying flow field on the airfoil. The vortex was shown to grow on the airfoil for four convection times, before shedding and causing dynamic stall in agreement with 'optimal' vortex formation theory. Vortex shedding from the trailing edge was identified from instantaneous velocity fields prior to separation. This shedding was found to be in agreement with classical Strouhal frequency scaling and was removed by phase averaging, which indicates that it is not exactly coupled to the phase of the airfoil motion.

The flow field over an airfoil undergoing solely pitch motion was shown to develop similarly to the pitch/surge motion; however, flow separation took place earlier, corresponding to the earlier formation of the leading edge vortex. A similar reduced-order model to the pitch/surge case was developed, with similar vortical structures leading separation and reattachment; however, the relative phase lead of the separation mode, corresponding to earlier separation, necessitated that a third frequency to be incorporated into the reattachment mode to provide a relative lag in reattachment.

Finally, the results are returned to the rotating frame and the effects of each flow phenomena on the turbine are estimated, suggesting kinematic criteria for the design of improved turbines.

Aerodynamics of vertical-axis wind turbines in full-scale and laboratory-scale experiments

Within a wind farm, multiple turbine wakes can interact and have a substantial effect on the overall power production. This makes an understanding of the wake recovery process critically important to optimizing wind farm efficiency. Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) exhibit features that are amenable to dramatically improving this efficiency. However, the physics of the flow around VAWTs is not well understood, especially as it pertains to wake interactions, and it is the goal of this thesis to partially fill this void. This objective is approached from two broadly different perspectives: a low-order view of wind farm aerodynamics, and a detailed experimental analysis of the VAWT wake.

One of the contributions of this thesis is the development of a semi-empirical model of wind farm aerodynamics, known as the LRB model, that is able to predict turbine array configurations to leading order accuracy. Another contribution is the characterization of the VAWT wake as a function of turbine solidity. It was found that three distinct regions of flow exist in the VAWT wake: (1) the near wake, where periodic blade shedding of vorticity dominates; (2) a transition region, where growth of a shear-layer instability occurs; (3) the far wake, where bluff-body oscillations dominate. The wake transition can be predicted using a new parameter, the dynamic solidity, which establishes a quantitative connection between the wake of a VAWT and that of a circular cylinder. The results provide insight into the mechanism of the VAWT wake recovery and the potential means to control it.

Formation of jets by implusive acceleration of a curved free surface

The sudden axial acceleration of a column of liquid bounded at one end by a concave free surface has been found, experimentally, to produce a jet which issues from the free surface with a speed several times that imparted to the column.

Theoretical approximations to such flows, valid for small time, are formulated subject to the assumption that the fluid is inviscid and incompressible. In a special two-dimensional case, it is found that, for vanishingly small time, the velocity at the point on the free surface from which the jet emanates is π/2 times the velocity imparted to the column. The solutions to several problems in two and three dimensions assuming that the initial curvature of the free surface is small, lead to values for this ratio dependent upon the curvature—the initial velocity in the case of axial symmetry exceeding that of the analogous two-dimensional problem by approximately 25%.

Experiments conducted upon the phenomenon give values systematically in excess of those predicted by the theory, although theory and experiment are in qualitative agreement with respect to the displacement of the free surface. It is suggested that the discrepancy is attributable to effects of finite curvature having been imperfectly accounted for in the axially-symmetric analysis.

Photographic materials on pp. 115, 120, and 121 are essential and will not reproduce clearly on Xerox copies. Photographic copies should be ordered.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.