The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

An examination of strategic opportunities provided by the conference committee procedure in the U.S. Congress

Deference to committees in Congress has been a much studied phenomena for close to 100 years. This deference can be characterized as the unwillingness of a potentially winning coalition on the House floor to impose its will on a small minority, a standing committee. The congressional scholar is then faced with two problems: observing such deference to committees, and explaining it. Shepsle and Weingast have proposed the existence of an ex-post veto for standing committees as an explanation of committee deference. They claim that as conference reports in the House and Senate are considered under a rule that does not allow amendments, the conferees enjoy agenda-setting power. In this paper I describe a test of such a hypothesis (along with competing hypotheses regarding the effects of the conference procedure). A random-utility model is utilized to estimate legislators' ideal points on appropriations bills from 1973 through 1980. I prove two things: 1) that committee deference can not be said to be a result of the conference procedure; and moreover 2) that committee deference does not appear to exist at all.

Magnetic alignment of high-aspect ratio microwires into vertical arrays

Fundamental studies of magnetic alignment of highly anisotropic mesostructures can enable the clean-room-free fabrication of flexible, array-based solar and electronic devices, in which preferential orientation of nano- or microwire-type objects is desired. In this study, ensembles of 100 micron long Si microwires with ferromagnetic Ni and Co coatings are oriented vertically in the presence of magnetic fields. The degree of vertical alignment and threshold field strength depend on geometric factors, such as microwire length and ferromagnetic coating thickness, as well as interfacial interactions, which are modulated by varying solvent and substrate surface chemistry. Microwire ensembles with vertical alignment over 97% within 10 degrees of normal, as measured by X-ray diffraction, are achieved over square cm scale areas and set into flexible polymer films. A force balance model has been developed as a predictive tool for magnetic alignment, incorporating magnetic torque and empirically derived surface adhesion parameters. As supported by these calculations, microwires are shown to detach from the surface and align vertically in the presence of magnetic fields on the order of 100 gauss. Microwires aligned in this manner are set into a polydimethylsiloxane film where they retain their vertical alignment after the field has been removed and can subsequently be used as a flexible solar absorber layer. Finally, these microwires arrays can be protected for use in electrochemical cells by the conformal deposition of a graphene layer.