Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

An economic air pollution control model-application : photochemical smog in Los Angeles County in 1975

An economic air pollution control model, which determines the least cost of reaching various air quality levels, is formulated. The model takes the form of a general, nonlinear, mathematical programming problem. Primary contaminant emission levels are the independent variables. The objective function is the cost of attaining various emission levels and is to be minimized subject to constraints that given air quality levels be attained.

The model is applied to a simplified statement of the photochemical smog problem in Los Angeles County in 1975 with emissions specified by a two-dimensional vector, total reactive hydrocarbon, (RHC), and nitrogen oxide, (NO_x), emissions. Air quality, also two-dimensional, is measured by the expected number of days per year that nitrogen dioxide, (NO₂), and mid-day ozone, (O₃), exceed standards in Central Los Angeles.

The minimum cost of reaching various emission levels is found by a linear programming model. The base or "uncontrolled" emission levels are those that will exist in 1975 with the present new car control program and with the degree of stationary source control existing in 1971. Controls, basically "add-on devices", are considered here for used cars, aircraft, and existing stationary sources. It is found that with these added controls, Los Angeles County emission levels [(1300 tons/day RHC, 1000 tons /day NO_x) in 1969] and [(670 tons/day RHC, 790 tons/day NO_x) at the base 1975 level], can be reduced to 260 tons/day RHC (minimum RHC program) and 460 tons/day NO_x (minimum NO_x program).

"Phenomenological" or statistical air quality models provide the relationship between air quality and emissions. These models estimate the relationship by using atmospheric monitoring data taken at one (yearly) emission level and by using certain simple physical assumptions, (e. g., that emissions are reduced proportionately at all points in space and time). For NO₂, (concentrations assumed proportional to NO_x emissions), it is found that standard violations in Central Los Angeles, (55 in 1969), can be reduced to 25, 5, and 0 days per year by controlling emissions to 800, 550, and 300 tons /day, respectively. A probabilistic model reveals that RHC control is much more effective than NO_x control in reducing Central Los Angeles ozone. The 150 days per year ozone violations in 1969 can be reduced to 75, 30, 10, and 0 days per year by abating RHC emissions to 700, 450, 300, and 150 tons/day, respectively, (at the 1969 NO_x emission level).

The control cost-emission level and air quality-emission level relationships are combined in a graphical solution of the complete model to find the cost of various air quality levels. Best possible air quality levels with the controls considered here are 8 O₃ and 10 NO₂ violations per year (minimum ozone program) or 25 O₃ and 3 NO₂ violations per year (minimum NO₂ program) with an annualized cost of $230,000,000 (above the estimated $150,000,000 per year for the new car control program for Los Angeles County motor vehicles in 1975).

Applications of plasticity theory to selected problems in soil mechanics

Two topics in plane strain perfect plasticity are studied using the method of characteristics. The first is the steady-state indentation of an infinite medium by either a rigid wedge having a triangular cross section or a smooth plate inclined to the direction of motion. Solutions are exact and results include deformation patterns and forces of resistance; the latter are also applicable for the case of incipient failure. Experiments on sharp wedges in clay, where forces and deformations are recorded, showed a good agreement with the mechanism of cutting assumed by the theory; on the other hand the indentation process for blunt wedges transforms into that of compression with a rigid part of clay moving with the wedge. Finite element solutions, for a bilinear material model, were obtained to establish a correspondence between the response of the plane strain wedge and its axi-symmetric counterpart, the cone. Results of the study afford a better understanding of the process of indentation of soils by penetrometers and piles as well as the mechanism of failure of deep foundations (piles and anchor plates).

The second topic concerns the plane strain steady-state free rolling of a rigid roller on clays. The problem is solved approximately for small loads by getting the exact solution of two problems that encompass the one of interest; the first is a steady-state with a geometry that approximates the one of the roller and the second is an instantaneous solution of the rolling process but is not a steady-state. Deformations and rolling resistance are derived. When compared with existing empirical formulae the latter was found to agree closely.

Understanding Micro- and Macro-Mechanics of Soil Liquefaction: A Necessary Step for Field-Scale Assessment

Liquefaction is a devastating instability associated with saturated, loose, and cohesionless soils. It poses a significant risk to distributed infrastructure systems that are vital for the security, economy, safety, health, and welfare of societies. In order to make our cities resilient to the effects of liquefaction, it is important to be able to identify areas that are most susceptible. Some of the prevalent methodologies employed to identify susceptible areas include conventional slope stability analysis and the use of so-called liquefaction charts. However, these methodologies have some limitations, which motivate our research objectives. In this dissertation, we investigate the mechanics of origin of liquefaction in a laboratory test using grain-scale simulations, which helps (i) understand why certain soils liquefy under certain conditions, and (ii) identify a necessary precursor for onset of flow liquefaction. Furthermore, we investigate the mechanics of liquefaction charts using a continuum plasticity model; this can help in modeling the surface hazards of liquefaction following an earthquake. Finally, we also investigate the microscopic definition of soil shear wave velocity, a soil property that is used as an index to quantify liquefaction resistance of soil. We show that anisotropy in fabric, or grain arrangement can be correlated with anisotropy in shear wave velocity. This has the potential to quantify the effects of sample disturbance when a soil specimen is extracted from the field. In conclusion, by developing a more fundamental understanding of soil liquefaction, this dissertation takes necessary steps for a more physical assessment of liquefaction susceptibility at the field-scale.