A theoretical and empirical study of addiction

Consumption of addictive substances poses a challenge to economic models of rational, forward-looking agents. This dissertation presents a theoretical and empirical examination of consumption of addictive goods.

The theoretical model draws on evidence from psychology and neurobiology to improve on the standard assumptions used in intertemporal consumption studies. I model agents who may misperceive the severity of the future consequences from consuming addictive substances and allow for an agent's environment to shape her preferences in a systematic way suggested by numerous studies that have found craving to be induced by the presence of environmental cues associated with past substance use. The behavior of agents in this behavioral model of addiction can mimic the pattern of quitting and relapsing that is prevalent among addictive substance users.

Chapter 3 presents an empirical analysis of the Becker and Murphy (1988) model of rational addiction using data on grocery store sales of cigarettes. This essay empirically tests the model's predictions concerning consumption responses to future and past price changes as well as the prediction that the response to an anticipated price change differs from the response to an unanticipated price change. In addition, I consider the consumption effects of three institutional changes that occur during the time period 1996 through 1999.

Finite-Element Simulations of Earthquakes

This thesis discusses simulations of earthquake ground motions using prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure. Introducing sliding degrees of freedom led to an innovative technique for numerical modeling of earthquake sources. This technique allows efficient implementation of both prescribed ruptures and dynamic failure on an arbitrarily oriented fault surface. Off the fault surface the solution of the three-dimensional, dynamic elasticity equation uses well known finite-element techniques. We employ parallel processing to efficiently compute the ground motions in domains containing millions of degrees of freedom.

Using prescribed ruptures we study the sensitivity of long-period near-source ground motions to five earthquake source parameters for hypothetical events on a strike-slip fault (M_w 7.0 to 7.1) and a thrust fault (M_w 6.6 to 7.0). The directivity of the ruptures creates large displacement and velocity pulses in the ground motions in the forward direction. We found a good match between the severity of the shaking and the shape of the near-source factor from the 1997 Uniform Building Code for strike-slip faults and thrust faults with surface rupture. However, for blind thrust faults the peak displacement and velocities occur up-dip from the region with the peak near-source factor. We assert that a simple modification to the formulation of the near-source factor improves the match between the severity of the ground motion and the shape of the near-source factor.

For simulations with dynamic failure on a strike-slip fault or a thrust fault, we examine what constraints must be imposed on the coefficient of friction to produce realistic ruptures under the application of reasonable shear and normal stress distributions with depth. We found that variation of the coefficient of friction with the shear modulus and the depth produces realistic rupture behavior in both homogeneous and layered half-spaces. Furthermore, we observed a dependence of the rupture speed on the direction of propagation and fluctuations in the rupture speed and slip rate as the rupture encountered changes in the stress field. Including such behavior in prescribed ruptures would yield more realistic ground motions.