4 resultados para search methods

em CaltechTHESIS


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Many particles proposed by theories, such as GUT monopoles, nuclearites and 1/5 charge superstring particles, can be categorized as Slow-moving, Ionizing, Massive Particles (SIMPs).

Detailed calculations of the signal-to-noise ratios in vanous acoustic and mechanical methods for detecting such SIMPs are presented. It is shown that the previous belief that such methods are intrinsically prohibited by the thermal noise is incorrect, and that ways to solve the thermal noise problem are already within the reach of today's technology. In fact, many running and finished gravitational wave detection ( GWD) experiments are already sensitive to certain SIMPs. As an example, a published GWD result is used to obtain a flux limit for nuclearites.

The result of a search using a scintillator array on Earth's surface is reported. A flux limit of 4.7 x 10^(-12) cm^(-2)sr^(-1)s^(-1) (90% c.l.) is set for any SIMP with 2.7 x 10^(-4) less than β less than 5 x 10^(-3) and ionization greater than 1/3 of minimum ionizing muons. Although this limit is above the limits from underground experiments for typical supermassive particles (10^(16)GeV), it is a new limit in certain β and ionization regions for less massive ones (~10^9 GeV) not able to penetrate deep underground, and implies a stringent limit on the fraction of the dark matter that can be composed of massive electrically and/ or magnetically charged particles.

The prospect of the future SIMP search in the MACRO detector is discussed. The special problem of SIMP trigger is examined and a circuit proposed, which may solve most of the problems of the previous ones proposed or used by others and may even enable MACRO to detect certain SIMP species with β as low as the orbital velocity around the earth.

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In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC2) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC2 criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC2 criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC2 to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

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This thesis presents a novel class of algorithms for the solution of scattering and eigenvalue problems on general two-dimensional domains under a variety of boundary conditions, including non-smooth domains and certain "Zaremba" boundary conditions - for which Dirichlet and Neumann conditions are specified on various portions of the domain boundary. The theoretical basis of the methods for the Zaremba problems on smooth domains concern detailed information, which is put forth for the first time in this thesis, about the singularity structure of solutions of the Laplace operator under boundary conditions of Zaremba type. The new methods, which are based on use of Green functions and integral equations, incorporate a number of algorithmic innovations, including a fast and robust eigenvalue-search algorithm, use of the Fourier Continuation method for regularization of all smooth-domain Zaremba singularities, and newly derived quadrature rules which give rise to high-order convergence even around singular points for the Zaremba problem. The resulting algorithms enjoy high-order convergence, and they can tackle a variety of elliptic problems under general boundary conditions, including, for example, eigenvalue problems, scattering problems, and, in particular, eigenfunction expansion for time-domain problems in non-separable physical domains with mixed boundary conditions.

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This document introduces the planned new search for the neutron Electric Dipole Moment at the Spallation Neutron Source at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. A spin precession measurement is to be carried out using Ultracold neutrons diluted in a superfluid Helium bath at T = 0.5 K, where spin polarized 3He atoms act as detector of the neutron spin polarization. This manuscript describes some of the key aspects of the planned experiment with the contributions from Caltech to the development of the project.

Techniques used in the design of magnet coils for Nuclear Magnetic Resonance were adapted to the geometry of the experiment. Described is an initial design approach using a pair of coils tuned to shield outer conductive elements from resistive heat loads, while inducing an oscillating field in the measurement volume. A small prototype was constructed to test the model of the field at room temperature.

A large scale test of the high voltage system was carried out in a collaborative effort at the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The application and amplification of high voltage to polished steel electrodes immersed in a superfluid Helium bath was studied, as well as the electrical breakdown properties of the electrodes at low temperatures. A suite of Monte Carlo simulation software tools to model the interaction of neutrons, 3He atoms, and their spins with the experimental magnetic and electric fields was developed and implemented to further the study of expected systematic effects of the measurement, with particular focus on the false Electric Dipole Moment induced by a Geometric Phase akin to Berry’s phase.

An analysis framework was developed and implemented using unbinned likelihood to fit the time modulated signal expected from the measurement data. A collaborative Monte Carlo data set was used to test the analysis methods.