Essays in behavioral and neuro-economics

This thesis examines foundational questions in behavioral economics—also called psychology and economics—and the neural foundations of varied sources of utility. We have three primary aims: First, to provide the field of behavioral economics with psychological theories of behavior that are derived from neuroscience and to use those theories to identify novel evidence for behavioral biases. Second, we provide neural and micro foundations of behavioral preferences that give rise to well-documented empirical phenomena in behavioral economics. Finally, we show how a deep understanding of the neural foundations of these behavioral preferences can feed back into our theories of social preferences and reference-dependent utility.

The first chapter focuses on classical conditioning and its application in identifying the psychological underpinnings of a pricing phenomenon. We return to classical conditioning again in the third chapter where we use fMRI to identify varied sources of utility—here, reference dependent versus direct utility—and cross-validate our interpretation with a conditioning experiment. The second chapter engages social preferences and, more broadly, causative utility (wherein the decision-maker derives utility from making or avoiding particular choices).

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Cryogenic Silicon Optical Reference Cavities

Thermodynamical fluctuations in temperature and position exist in every physical system, and show up as a fundamental noise limit whenever we choose to measure some quantity in a laboratory environment. Thermodynamical fluctuations in the position of the atoms in the dielectric coatings on the mirrors for optical cavities at the forefront of precision metrology (e.g., LIGO, the cavities which probe atomic transitions to define the second) are a current limiting noise source for these experiments, and anything which involves locking a laser to an optical cavity. These thermodynamic noise sources scale physical geometry of experiment, material properties (such as mechanical loss in our dielectric coatings), and temperature. The temperature scaling provides a natural motivation to move to lower temperatures, with a potential huge benefit for redesigning a room temperature experiment which is limited by thermal noise for cryogenic operation.

We design, build, and characterize a pair of linear Fabry-Perot cavities to explore limitations to ultra low noise laser stabilization experiments at cryogenic temperatures. We use silicon as the primary material for the cavity and mirrors, due to a zero crossing in its linear coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) at 123 K, and other desirable material properties. We use silica tantala coatings, which are currently the best for making high finesse low noise cavities at room temperature. The material properties of these coating materials (which set the thermal noise levels) are relatively unknown at cryogenic temperatures, which motivates us to study them at these temperatures. We were not able to measure any thermal noise source with our experiment due to excess noise. In this work we analyze the design and performance of the cavities, and recommend a design shift from mid length cavities to short cavities in order to facilitate a direct measurement of cryogenic coating noise.

In addition, we measure the cavities (frequency dependent) photo-thermal response. This can help characterize thermooptic noise in the coatings, which is poorly understood at cryogenic temperatures. We also explore the feasibility of using the cavity to do macroscopic quantum optomechanics such as ground state cooling.

Brain type II calcium and calmodulin-dependent protein kinase: characterization of a brain-region specific isozyme and regulation by autophosphorylation

A variety of molecular approaches have been used to investigate the structural and enzymatic properties of rat brain type ll Ca^(2+) and calmodulin-dependent protein kinase (type ll CaM kinase). This thesis describes the isolation and biochemical characterization of a brain-region specific isozyme of the kinase and also the regulation the kinase activity by autophosphorylation.

The cerebellar isozyme of the type ll CaM kinase was purified and its biochemical properties were compared to the forebrain isozyme. The cerebellar isozyme is a large (500-kDa) multimeric enzyme composed of multiple copies of 50-kDa α subunits and 60/58-kDa β/β’ subunits. The holoenzyme contains approximately 2 α subunits and 8 β subunits. This contrasts to the forebrain isozyme, which is also composed of and β/β'subunits, but they are assembled into a holoenzyme of approximately 9 α subunits and 3 β/β ' subunits. The biochemical and enzymatic properties of the two isozymes are similar. The two isozymes differ in their association with subcellular structures. Approximately 85% of the cerebellar isozyme, but only 50% of the forebrain isozyme, remains associated with the particulate fraction after homogenization under standard conditions. Postsynaptic densities purified from forebrain contain the forebrain isozyme, and the kinase subunits make up about 16% of their total protein. Postsynaptic densities purified from cerebellum contain the cerebellar isozyme, but the kinase subunits make up only 1-2% of their total protein.

The enzymatic activity of both isozymes of the type II CaM kinase is regulated by autophosphorylation in a complex manner. The kinase is initially completely dependent on Ca^(2+)/calmodulin for phosphorylation of exogenous substrates as well as for autophosphorylation. Kinase activity becomes partially Ca^(2+) independent after autophosphorylation in the presence of Ca^(2+)/calmodulin. Phosphorylation of only a few subunits in the dodecameric holoenzyme is sufficient to cause this change, suggesting an allosteric interaction between subunits. At the same time, autophosphorylation itself becomes independent of Ca^(2+) These observations suggest that the kinase may be able to exist in at least two stable states, which differ in their requirements for Ca^(2+)/calmodulin.

The autophosphorylation sites that are involved in the regulation of kinase activity have been identified within the primary structure of the α and β subunits. We used the method of reverse phase-HPLC tryptic phosphopeptide mapping to isolate individual phosphorylation sites. The phosphopeptides were then sequenced by gas phase microsequencing. Phosphorylation of a single homologous threonine residue in the α and β subunits is correlated with the production of the Ca^(2+) -independent activity state of the kinase. In addition we have identified several sites that are phosphorylated only during autophosphorylation in the absence of Ca^(2+)/ calmodulin.

Three-dimensional models of mantle convection : influence of phase transitions and temperature-dependent viscosity

Two of the most important questions in mantle dynamics are investigated in three separate studies: the influence of phase transitions (studies 1 and 2), and the influence of temperature-dependent viscosity (study 3).

(1) Numerical modeling of mantle convection in a three-dimensional spherical shell incorporating the two major mantle phase transitions reveals an inherently three-dimensional flow pattern characterized by accumulation of cold downwellings above the 670 km discontinuity, and cylindrical 'avalanches' of upper mantle material into the lower mantle. The exothermic phase transition at 400 km depth reduces the degree of layering. A region of strongly-depressed temperature occurs at the base of the mantle. The temperature field is strongly modulated by this partial layering, both locally and in globally-averaged diagnostics. Flow penetration is strongly wavelength-dependent, with easy penetration at long wavelengths but strong inhibition at short wavelengths. The amplitude of the geoid is not significantly affected.

(2) Using a simple criterion for the deflection of an upwelling or downwelling by an endothermic phase transition, the scaling of the critical phase buoyancy parameter with the important lengthscales is obtained. The derived trends match those observed in numerical simulations, i.e., deflection is enhanced by (a) shorter wavelengths, (b) narrower up/downwellings (c) internal heating and (d) narrower phase loops.

(3) A systematic investigation into the effects of temperature-dependent viscosity on mantle convection has been performed in three-dimensional Cartesian geometry, with a factor of 1000-2500 viscosity variation, and Rayleigh numbers of 10^5-10^7. Enormous differences in model behavior are found, depending on the details of rheology, heating mode, compressibility and boundary conditions. Stress-free boundaries, compressibility, and temperature-dependent viscosity all favor long-wavelength flows, even in internally heated cases. However, small cells are obtained with some parameter combinations. Downwelling plumes and upwelling sheets are possible when viscosity is dependent solely on temperature. Viscous dissipation becomes important with temperature-dependent viscosity.

The sensitivity of mantle flow and structure to these various complexities illustrates the importance of performing mantle convection calculations with rheological and thermodynamic properties matching as closely as possible those of the Earth.

State-dependent modulation of neuronal circuits in C. elegans sleep

C. elegans is a compact system of 302 neurons with identifiable and mapped connections that makes it ideal for systems analysis. This work is a demonstration of what I have been able to learn about the nature of state-specific modulation and reversibility during a state called lethargus, a sleep-like state in the worm. I begin with description about the nervous system of the worm, the nature of sleep in the worm, the questions about behavior and its apparent circuit properties, the tools available and used to manipulate the nervous system, and what I have been able to learn from these studies. I end with clues that the physiology helps to teach us about the dynamics of state specific modulation, what makes sleep so different from other states, and how we can use these measurements to understand which modulators, neurotransmitters, and channels can be used to create different dynamics in a simple model system.

Negative regulation of transcription factors by Srb10 cyclin-dependent kinase

The ubiquitin-dependent proteolytic pathway plays an important role in a broad array of cellular processes, inducting cell cycle control and transcription. Biochemical analysis of the ubiquitination of Sic1, the B-type cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitor in budding yeast helped to define a ubiquitin ligase complex named SCF^cdc4 (for Skp1, Cdc53/cullin, F-box protein). We found that besides Sic1, the CDK inhibitor Far1 and the replication initiation protein Cdc6 are also substrates of SCF^cdc4 in vitro. A common feature in the ubiquitination of the cell cycle SCF^cdc4 substrates is that they must be phosphorylated by the major cell cycle CDK, Cdc28. Gcn4, a transcription activator involved in the general control of amino acid biosynthesis, is rapidly degraded in an SCF^cdc4-dependent manner in vivo. We have focused on this substrate to investigate the generality of the SCF^cdc4 pathway. Through biochemical fractionations, we found that the Srb10 CDK phosphorylates Gcn4 and thereby marks it for recognition by SCF^cdc4 ubiquitin ligase. Srb10 is a physiological regulator of Gcn4 stability because both phosphorylation and turnover of Gcn4 are diminished in srb10 mutants. Furthermore, we found that at least two different CDKs, Pho85 and Srb10, conspire to promote the rapid degradation of Gcn4 in vivo. The multistress response transcriptional regulator Msn2 is also a substrate for Srb10 and is hyperphosphorylated in an Srb10-dependent manner upon heat stress-induced translocation into the nucleus. Whereas Msn2 is cytoplasmic in resting wild type cells, its nuclear exclusion is partially compromised in srb10 mutant cells. Srb10 has been shown to repress a subset of genes in vivo, and has been proposed to inhibit transcription via phosphorylation of the C-terminal domain of RNA polymerase II. Our results suggest a general theme that Srb10 represses the transcription of specific genes by directly antagonizing the transcriptional activators.

Cavity-enhanced spectroscopies for applications of remote sensing, chemical kinetics and detection of radical species

This thesis describes applications of cavity enhanced spectroscopy towards applications of remote sensing, chemical kinetics and detection of transient radical molecular species. Both direct absorption spectroscopy and cavity ring-down spectroscopy are used in this work. Frequency-stabilized cavity ring-down spectroscopy (FS-CRDS) was utilized for measurements of spectral lineshapes of O₂ and CO₂ for obtaining laboratory reference data in support of NASA’s OCO-2 mission. FS-CRDS is highly sensitive (> 10 km absorption path length) and precise (> 10000:1 SNR), making it ideal to study subtle non-Voigt lineshape effects. In addition, these advantages of FS-CRDS were further extended for measuring kinetic isotope effects: A dual-wavelength variation of FS-CRDS was used for measuring precise D/H and ¹³C/¹²C methane isotope ratios (sigma>0.026%) for the purpose of measuring the temperature dependent kinetic isotope effects of methane oxidation with O(¹D) and OH radicals. Finally, direct absorption spectroscopic detection of the trans-DOCO radical via a frequency combs spectrometer was conducted in collaboration with professor Jun Ye at JILA/University of Colorado.

The instability of fluids with time dependent heating

The stability of a fluid having a non-uniform temperature stratification is examined analytically for the response of infinitesimal disturbances. The growth rates of disturbances have been established for a semi-infinite fluid for Rayleigh numbers of 10³, 10⁴, and 10⁵ and for Prandtl numbers of 7.0 and 0.7.

The critical Rayleigh number for a semi-infinite fluid, based on the effective fluid depth, is found to be 32, while it is shown that for a finite fluid layer the critical Rayleigh number depends on the rate of heating. The minimum critical Rayleigh number, based on the depth of a fluid layer, is found to be 1340.

The stability of a finite fluid layer is examined for two special forms of heating. The first is constant flux heating, while in the second, the temperature of the lower surface is increased uniformly in time. In both cases, it is shown that for moderate rates of heating the critical Rayleigh number is reduced, over the value for very slow heating, while for very rapid heating the critical Rayleigh number is greatly increased. These results agree with published experimental observations.

The question of steady, non-cellular convection is given qualitative consideration. It is concluded that, although the motion may originate from infinitesimal disturbances during non-uniform heating, the final flow field is intrinsically non-linear.

Time-dependent monoenergetic neutron transport in two adjacent semi-infinite media

An exact solution to the monoenergetic Boltzmann equation is obtained for the case of a plane isotropic burst of neutrons introduced at the interface separating two adjacent, dissimilar, semi-infinite media. The method of solution used is to remove the time dependence by a Laplace transformation, solve the transformed equation by the normal mode expansion method, and then invert to recover the time dependence.

The general result is expressed as a sum of definite, multiple integrals, one of which contains the uncollided wave of neutrons originating at the source plane. It is possible to obtain a simplified form for the solution at the interface, and certain numerical calculations are made there.

The interface flux in two adjacent moderators is calculated and plotted as a function of time for several moderator materials. For each case it is found that the flux decay curve has an asymptotic slope given accurately by diffusion theory. Furthermore, the interface current is observed to change directions when the scattering and absorption cross sections of the two moderator materials are related in a certain manner. More specifically, the reflection process in two adjacent moderators appears to depend initially on the scattering properties and for long times on the absorption properties of the media.

This analysis contains both the single infinite and semi-infinite medium problems as special cases. The results in these two special cases provide a check on the accuracy of the general solution since they agree with solutions of these problems obtained by separate analyses.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.