Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Time-Domain TeraHertz Spectroscopy and Observational Probes of Prebiotic Interstellar Gas and Ice Chemistry

Understanding the origin of life on Earth has long fascinated the minds of the global community, and has been a driving factor in interdisciplinary research for centuries. Beyond the pioneering work of Darwin, perhaps the most widely known study in the last century is that of Miller and Urey, who examined the possibility of the formation of prebiotic chemical precursors on the primordial Earth [1]. More recent studies have shown that amino acids, the chemical building blocks of the biopolymers that comprise life as we know it on Earth, are present in meteoritic samples, and that the molecules extracted from the meteorites display isotopic signatures indicative of an extraterrestrial origin [2]. The most recent major discovery in this area has been the detection of glycine (NH₂CH₂COOH), the simplest amino acid, in pristine cometary samples returned by the NASA STARDUST mission [3]. Indeed, the open questions left by these discoveries, both in the public and scientific communities, hold such fascination that NASA has designated the understanding of our "Cosmic Origins" as a key mission priority.

Despite these exciting discoveries, our understanding of the chemical and physical pathways to the formation of prebiotic molecules is woefully incomplete. This is largely because we do not yet fully understand how the interplay between grain-surface and sub-surface ice reactions and the gas-phase affects astrophysical chemical evolution, and our knowledge of chemical inventories in these regions is incomplete. The research presented here aims to directly address both these issues, so that future work to understand the formation of prebiotic molecules has a solid foundation from which to work.

From an observational standpoint, a dedicated campaign to identify hydroxylamine (NH₂OH), potentially a direct precursor to glycine, in the gas-phase was undertaken. No trace of NH₂OH was found. These observations motivated a refinement of the chemical models of glycine formation, and have largely ruled out a gas-phase route to the synthesis of the simplest amino acid in the ISM. A molecular mystery in the case of the carrier of a series of transitions was resolved using observational data toward a large number of sources, confirming the identity of this important carbon-chemistry intermediate B11244 as l-C₃H⁺ and identifying it in at least two new environments. Finally, the doubly-nitrogenated molecule carbodiimide HNCNH was identified in the ISM for the first time through maser emission features in the centimeter-wavelength regime.

In the laboratory, a TeraHertz Time-Domain Spectrometer was constructed to obtain the experimental spectra necessary to search for solid-phase species in the ISM in the THz region of the spectrum. These investigations have shown a striking dependence on large-scale, long-range (i.e. lattice) structure of the ices on the spectra they present in the THz. A database of molecular spectra has been started, and both the simplest and most abundant ice species, which have already been identified, as well as a number of more complex species, have been studied. The exquisite sensitivity of the THz spectra to both the structure and thermal history of these ices may lead to better probes of complex chemical and dynamical evolution in interstellar environments.

Effects of density differences on lateral mixing in open-channel flows

This study investigates lateral mixing of tracer fluids in turbulent open-channel flows when the tracer and ambient fluids have different densities. Longitudinal dispersion in flows with longitudinal density gradients is investigated also.

Lateral mixing was studied in a laboratory flume by introducing fluid tracers at the ambient flow velocity continuously and uniformly across a fraction of the flume width and over the entire depth of the ambient flow. Fluid samples were taken to obtain concentration distributions in cross-sections at various distances, x, downstream from the tracer source. The data were used to calculate variances of the lateral distributions of the depth-averaged concentration. When there was a difference in density between the tracer and the ambient fluids, lateral mixing close to the source was enhanced by density-induced secondary flows; however, far downstream where the density gradients were small, lateral mixing rates were independent of the initial density difference. A dimensional analysis of the problem and the data show that the normalized variance is a function of only three dimensionless numbers, which represent: (1) the x-coordinate, (2) the source width, and (3) the buoyancy flux from the source.

A simplified set of equations of motion for a fluid with a horizontal density gradient was integrated to give an expression for the density-induced velocity distribution. The dispersion coefficient due to this velocity distribution was also obtained. Using this dispersion coefficient in an analysis for predicting lateral mixing rates in the experiments of this investigation gave only qualitative agreement with the data. However, predicted longitudinal salinity distributions in an idealized laboratory estuary agree well with published data.

Development of roll waves in open channels

This study is concerned with some of the properties of roll waves that develop naturally from a turbulent uniform flow in a wide rectangular channel on a constant steep slope . The wave properties considered were depth at the wave crest, depth at the wave trough, wave period, and wave velocity . The primary focus was on the mean values and standard deviations of the crest depths and wave periods at a given station and how these quantities varied with distance along the channel.

The wave properties were measured in a laboratory channel in which roll waves developed naturally from a uniform flow . The Froude number F (F = u_n/√gh_n, u_n = normal velocity , h_n = normal depth, g =acceleration of gravity) ranged from 3. 4 to 6. 0 for channel slopes S_o of . 05 and . 12 respectively . In the initial phase of their development the roll waves appeared as small amplitude waves with a continuous water surface profile . These small amplitude waves subsequently developed into large amplitude shock waves. Shock waves were found to overtake and combine with other shock waves with the result that the crest depth of the combined wave was larger than the crest depths before the overtake. Once roll waves began to develop, the mean value of the crest depths h_nmax increased with distance . Once the shock waves began to overtake, the mean wave period T_av increased approximately linearly with distance.

For a given Froude number and channel slope the observed quantities h^-_max/h_n , T' (T' = S_o T_av √g/h_n), and the standard deviations of h^-_max/h_n and T', could be expressed as unique functions of l/h_n (l = distance from beginning of channel) for the two-fold change in h_n occurring in the observed flows . A given value of h^-_max/h_n occurred at smaller values of l/h_n as the Froude number was increased. For a given value of h /hh^-_max/h_n the growth rate of δh^-_max/h^-_maxδl of the shock waves increased as the Froude number was increased.

A laboratory channel was also used to measure the wave properties of periodic permanent roll waves. For a given Froude number and channel slope the h^-_max/h_n vs. T' relation did not agree with a theory in which the weight of the shock front was neglected. After the theory was modified to include this weight, the observed values of h^-_max/h_n were within an average of 6.5 percent of the predicted values, and the maximum discrepancy was 13.5 percent.

For h^-_max/h_n sufficiently large (h^-_max/h_n > approximately 1.5) it was found that the h^-_max/h_n vs. T' relation for natural roll waves was practically identical to the h^-_max/h_n vs. T' relation for periodic permanent roll waves at the same Froude number and slope. As a result of this correspondence between periodic and natural roll waves, the growth rate δh^-_max/h^-_maxδl of shock waves was predicted to depend on the channel slope, and this slope dependence was observed in the experiments.