An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Flight dynamics in Drosophila through a dynamically-scaled robotic approach

Flies are particularly adept at balancing the competing demands of delay tolerance, performance, and robustness during flight, which invites thoughtful examination of their multimodal feedback architecture. This dissertation examines stabilization requirements for inner-loop feedback strategies in the flapping flight of Drosophila, the fruit fly, against the backdrop of sensorimotor transformations present in the animal. Flies have evolved multiple specializations to reduce sensorimotor latency, but sensory delay during flight is still significant on the timescale of body dynamics. I explored the effect of sensor delay on flight stability and performance for yaw turns using a dynamically-scaled robot equipped with a real-time feedback system that performed active turns in response to measured yaw torque. The results show a fundamental tradeoff between sensor delay and permissible feedback gain, and suggest that fast mechanosensory feedback provides a source of active damping that compliments that contributed by passive effects. Presented in the context of these findings, a control architecture whereby a haltere-mediated inner-loop proportional controller provides damping for slower visually-mediated feedback is consistent with tethered-flight measurements, free-flight observations, and engineering design principles. Additionally, I investigated how flies adjust stroke features to regulate and stabilize level forward flight. The results suggest that few changes to hovering kinematics are actually required to meet steady-state lift and thrust requirements at different flight speeds, and the primary driver of equilibrium velocity is the aerodynamic pitch moment. This finding is consistent with prior hypotheses and observations regarding the relationship between body pitch and flight speed in fruit flies. The results also show that the dynamics may be stabilized with additional pitch damping, but the magnitude of required damping increases with flight speed. I posit that differences in stroke deviation between the upstroke and downstroke might play a critical role in this stabilization. Fast mechanosensory feedback of the pitch rate could enable active damping, which would inherently exhibit gain scheduling with flight speed if pitch torque is regulated by adjusting stroke deviation. Such a control scheme would provide an elegant solution for flight stabilization across a wide range of flight speeds.

A multi-scale approach to shaping carbon nanotube structures for hollow microneedles

The concept of a carbon nanotube microneedle array is explored in this thesis from multiple perspectives including microneedle fabrication, physical aspects of transdermal delivery, and in vivo transdermal drug delivery experiments. Starting with standard techniques in carbon nanotube (CNT) fabrication, including catalyst patterning and chemical vapor deposition, vertically-aligned carbon nanotubes are utilized as a scaffold to define the shape of the hollow microneedle. Passive, scalable techniques based on capillary action and unique photolithographic methods are utilized to produce a CNT-polymer composite microneedle. Specific examples of CNT-polyimide and CNT-epoxy microneedles are investigated. Further analysis of the transport properties of polymer resins reveals general requirements for applying arbitrary polymers to the fabrication process.

The bottom-up fabrication approach embodied by vertically-aligned carbon nanotubes allows for more direct construction of complex high-aspect ratio features than standard top-down fabrication approaches, making microneedles an ideal application for CNTs. However, current vertically-aligned CNT fabrication techniques only allow for the production of extruded geometries with a constant cross-sectional area, such as cylinders. To rectify this limitation, isotropic oxygen etching is introduced as a novel fabrication technique to create true 3D CNT geometry. Oxygen etching is utilized to create a conical geometry from a cylindrical CNT structure as well as create complex shape transformations in other CNT geometries.

CNT-polymer composite microneedles are anchored onto a common polymer base less than 50 µm thick, which allows for the microneedles to be incorporated into multiple drug delivery platforms, including modified hypodermic syringes and silicone skin patches. Cylindrical microneedles are fabricated with 100 µm outer diameter and height of 200-250 µm with a central cavity, or lumen, diameter of 30 µm to facilitate liquid drug flow. In vitro delivery experiments in swine skin demonstrate the ability of the microneedles to successfully penetrate the skin and deliver aqueous solutions.

An in vivo study was performed to assess the ability of the CNT-polymer microneedles to deliver drugs transdermally. CNT-polymer microneedles are attached to a hand actuated silicone skin patch that holds a liquid reservoir of drugs. Fentanyl, a potent analgesic, was administered to New Zealand White Rabbits through 3 routes of delivery: topical patch, CNT-polymer microneedles, and subcutaneous hypodermic injection. Results demonstrate that the CNT-polymer microneedles have a similar onset of action as the topical patch. CNT-polymer microneedles were also vetted as a painless delivery approach compared to hypodermic injection. Comparative analysis with contemporary microneedle designs demonstrates that the delivery achieved through CNT-polymer microneedles is akin to current hollow microneedle architectures. The inherent advantage of applying a bottom-up fabrication approach alongside similar delivery performance to contemporary microneedle designs demonstrates that the CNT-polymer composite microneedle is a viable architecture in the emerging field of painless transdermal delivery.

The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

A multiple scattering problem

The present work deals with the problem of the interaction of the electromagnetic radiation with a statistical distribution of nonmagnetic dielectric particles immersed in an infinite homogeneous isotropic, non-magnetic medium. The wavelength of the incident radiation can be less, equal or greater than the linear dimension of a particle. The distance between any two particles is several wavelengths. A single particle in the absence of the others is assumed to scatter like a Rayleigh-Gans particle, i.e. interaction between the volume elements (self-interaction) is neglected. The interaction of the particles is taken into account (multiple scattering) and conditions are set up for the case of a lossless medium which guarantee that the multiple scattering contribution is more important than the self-interaction one. These conditions relate the wavelength λ and the linear dimensions of a particle a and of the region occupied by the particles D. It is found that for constant λ/a, D is proportional to λ and that |Δχ|, where Δχ is the difference in the dielectric susceptibilities between particle and medium, has to lie within a certain range.

The total scattering field is obtained as a series the several terms of which represent the corresponding multiple scattering orders. The first term is a single scattering term. The ensemble average of the total scattering intensity is then obtained as a series which does not involve terms due to products between terms of different orders. Thus the waves corresponding to different orders are independent and their Stokes parameters add.

The second and third order intensity terms are explicitly computed. The method used suggests a general approach for computing any order. It is found that in general the first order scattering intensity pattern (or phase function) peaks in the forward direction Θ = 0. The second order tends to smooth out the pattern giving a maximum in the Θ = π/2 direction and minima in the Θ = 0 , Θ = π directions. This ceases to be true if ka (where k = 2π/λ) becomes large (> 20). For large ka the forward direction is further enhanced. Similar features are expected from the higher orders even though the critical value of ka may increase with the order.

The first order polarization of the scattered wave is determined. The ensemble average of the Stokes parameters of the scattered wave is explicitly computed for the second order. A similar method can be applied for any order. It is found that the polarization of the scattered wave depends on the polarization of the incident wave. If the latter is elliptically polarized then the first order scattered wave is elliptically polarized, but in the Θ = π/2 direction is linearly polarized. If the incident wave is circularly polarized the first order scattered wave is elliptically polarized except for the directions Θ = π/2 (linearly polarized) and Θ = 0, π (circularly polarized). The handedness of the Θ = 0 wave is the same as that of the incident whereas the handedness of the Θ = π wave is opposite. If the incident wave is linearly polarized the first order scattered wave is also linearly polarized. The second order makes the total scattered wave to be elliptically polarized for any Θ no matter what the incident wave is. However, the handedness of the total scattered wave is not altered by the second order. Higher orders have similar effects as the second order.

If the medium is lossy the general approach employed for the lossless case is still valid. Only the algebra increases in complexity. It is found that the results of the lossless case are insensitive in the first order of k_imD where k_im = imaginary part of the wave vector k and D a linear characteristic dimension of the region occupied by the particles. Thus moderately extended regions and small losses make (k_imD)² ≪ 1 and the lossy character of the medium does not alter the results of the lossless case. In general the presence of the losses tends to reduce the forward scattering.

Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.