Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

On Ultrafast Time-Domain TeraHertz Spectroscopy in the Condensed Phase: Linear Spectroscopic Measurements of Hydrogen-Bond Dynamics of Astrochemical Ice Analogs and Nonlinear TeraHertz Kerr Effect Measurements of Vibrational Quantum Beats

Much of the chemistry that affects life on planet Earth occurs in the condensed phase. The TeraHertz (THz) or far-infrared (far-IR) region of the electromagnetic spectrum (from 0.1 THz to 10 THz, 3 cm^-1 to 300 cm^-1, or 3000 μm to 30 μm) has been shown to provide unique possibilities in the study of condensed-phase processes. The goal of this work is to expand the possibilities available in the THz region and undertake new investigations of fundamental interest to chemistry. Since we are fundamentally interested in condensed-phase processes, this thesis focuses on two areas where THz spectroscopy can provide new understanding: astrochemistry and solvation science. To advance these fields, we had to develop new instrumentation that would enable the experiments necessary to answer new questions in either astrochemistry or solvation science. We first developed a new experimental setup capable of studying astrochemical ice analogs in both the TeraHertz (THz), or far-Infrared (far-IR), region (0.3 - 7.5 THz; 10 - 250 cm^-1) and the mid-IR (400 - 4000 cm^-1). The importance of astrochemical ices lies in their key role in the formation of complex organic molecules, such as amino acids and sugars in space. Thus, the instruments are capable of performing variety of spectroscopic studies that can provide especially relevant laboratory data to support astronomical observations from telescopes such as the Herschel Space Telescope, the Stratospheric Observatory for Infrared Astronomy (SOFIA), and the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA). The experimental apparatus uses a THz time-domain spectrometer, with a 1750/875 nm plasma source and a GaP detector crystal, to cover the bandwidth mentioned above with ~10 GHz (~0.3 cm^-1) resolution.

Using the above instrumentation, experimental spectra of astrochemical ice analogs of water and carbon dioxide in pure, mixed, and layered ices were collected at different temperatures under high vacuum conditions with the goal of investigating the structure of the ice. We tentatively observe a new feature in both amorphous solid water and crystalline water at 33 cm^-1 (1 THz). In addition, our studies of mixed and layered ices show how it is possible to identify the location of carbon dioxide as it segregates within the ice by observing its effect on the THz spectrum of water ice. The THz spectra of mixed and layered ices are further analyzed by fitting their spectra features to those of pure amorphous solid water and crystalline water ice to quantify the effects of temperature changes on structure. From the results of this work, it appears that THz spectroscopy is potentially well suited to study thermal transformations within the ice.

To advance the study of liquids with THz spectroscopy, we developed a new ultrafast nonlinear THz spectroscopic technique: heterodyne-detected, ultrafast THz Kerr effect (TKE) spectroscopy. We implemented a heterodyne-detection scheme into a TKE spectrometer that uses a stilbazoiumbased THz emitter, 4-N,N-dimethylamino-4-N-methyl-stilbazolium 2,4,6-trimethylbenzenesulfonate (DSTMS), and high numerical aperture optics which generates THz electric field in excess of 300 kV/cm, in the sample. This allows us to report the first measurement of quantum beats at terahertz (THz) frequencies that result from vibrational coherences initiated by the nonlinear, dipolar interaction of a broadband, high-energy, (sub)picosecond THz pulse with the sample. Our instrument improves on both the frequency coverage, and sensitivity previously reported; it also ensures a backgroundless measurement of the THz Kerr effect in pure liquids. For liquid diiodomethane, we observe a quantum beat at 3.66 THz (122 cm^-1), in exact agreement with the fundamental transition frequency of the υ4 vibration of the molecule. This result provides new insight into dipolar vs. Raman selection rules at terahertz frequencies.

To conclude we discuss future directions for the nonlinear THz spectroscopy in the Blake lab. We report the first results from an experiment using a plasma-based THz source for nonlinear spectroscopy that has the potential to enable nonlinear THz spectra with a sub-100 fs temporal resolution, and how the optics involved in the plasma mechanism can enable THz pulse shaping. Finally, we discuss how a single-shot THz detection scheme could improve the acquisition of THz data and how such a scheme could be implemented in the Blake lab. The instruments developed herein will hopefully remain a part of the groups core competencies and serve as building blocks for the next generation of THz instrumentation that pushes the frontiers of both chemistry and the scientific enterprise as a whole.

Mean-speed measurements in two-dimensional, incompressible, fully-developed turbulent channel flow

Mean velocity profiles were measured in the 5” x 60” wind channel of the turbulence laboratory at the GALCIT, by the use of a hot-wire anemometer. The repeatability of results was established, and the accuracy of the instrumentation estimated. Scatter of experimental results is a little, if any, beyond this limit, although some effects might be expected to arise from variations in atmospheric humidity, no account of this factor having been taken in the present work. Also, slight unsteadiness in flow conditions will be responsible for some scatter.

Irregularities of a hot-wire in close proximity to a solid boundary at low speeds were observed, as have already been found by others.

That Kármán’s logarithmic law holds reasonably well over the main part of a fully developed turbulent flow was checked, the equation u/u_t = 6.0 + 6.25 log₁₀ y^ut/v being obtained, and, as has been previously the case, the experimental points do not quite form one straight line in the region where viscosity effects are small. The values of the constants for this law for the best over-all agreement were determined and compared with those obtained by others.

The range of Reynolds numbers used (based on half-width of channel) was from 20,000 to 60,000.

Field and Laboratory Studies of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol

This thesis is the culmination of field and laboratory studies aimed at assessing processes that affect the composition and distribution of atmospheric organic aerosol. An emphasis is placed on measurements conducted using compact and high-resolution Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS). The first three chapters summarize results from aircraft campaigns designed to evaluate anthropogenic and biogenic impacts on marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of California. Subsequent chapters describe laboratory studies intended to evaluate gas and particle-phase mechanisms of organic aerosol oxidation.

The 2013 Nucleation in California Experiment (NiCE) was a campaign designed to study environments impacted by nucleated and/or freshly formed aerosol particles. Terrestrial biogenic aerosol with > 85% organic mass was observed to reside in the free troposphere above marine stratocumulus. This biogenic organic aerosol (BOA) originated from the Northwestern United States and was transported to the marine atmosphere during periodic cloud-clearing events. Spectra recorded by a cloud condensation nuclei counter demonstrated that BOA is CCN active. BOA enhancements at latitudes north of San Francisco, CA coincided with enhanced cloud water concentrations of organic species such as acetate and formate.

Airborne measurements conducted during the 2011 Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) were aimed at evaluating the contribution of ship emissions to the properties of marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of central California. In one study, analysis of organic aerosol mass spectra during periods of enhanced shipping activity yielded unique tracers indicative of cloud-processed ship emissions (m/z 42 and 99). The variation of their organic fraction (f₄₂ and f₉₉) was found to coincide with periods of heavy (f₄₂ > 0.15; f₉₉ > 0.04), moderate (0.05 < f₄₂ < 0.15; 0.01 < f₉₉ < 0.04), and negligible (f₄₂ < 0.05; f₉₉ < 0.01) ship influence. Application of these conditions to all measurements conducted during E-PEACE demonstrated that a large fraction of cloud droplet (72%) and dry aerosol mass (12%) sampled in the California coastal study region was heavily or moderately influenced by ship emissions. Another study investigated the chemical and physical evolution of a controlled organic plume emitted from the R/V Point Sur. Under sunny conditions, nucleated particles composed of oxidized organic compounds contributed nearly an order of magnitude more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) than less oxidized particles formed under cloudy conditions. The processing time necessary for particles to become CCN active was short ( < 1 hr) compared to the time needed for particles to become hygroscopic at sub-saturated humidity ( > 4 hr).

Laboratory chamber experiments were also conducted to evaluate particle-phase processes influencing aerosol phase and composition. In one study, ammonium sulfate seed was coated with a layer of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from toluene oxidation followed by a layer of SOA from α-pinene oxidation. The system exhibited different evaporative properties than ammonium sulfate seed initially coated with α-pinene SOA followed by a layer of toluene SOA. This behavior is consistent with a shell-and-core model and suggests limited mixing among different SOA types. Another study investigated the reactive uptake of isoprene epoxy diols (IEPOX) onto non-acidified aerosol. It was demonstrated that particle acidity has limited influence on organic aerosol formation onto ammonium sulfate seed, and that the chemical system is limited by the availability of nucleophiles such as sulfate.

Flow tube experiments were conducted to examine the role of iron in the reactive uptake and chemical oxidation of glycolaldehyde. Aerosol particles doped with iron and hydrogen peroxide were mixed with gas-phase glycolaldehyde and photochemically aged in a custom-built flow reactor. Compared to particles free of iron, iron-doped aerosols significantly enhanced the oxygen to carbon (O/C) ratio of accumulated organic mass. The primary oxidation mechanism is suggested to be a combination of Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions which enhance particle-phase OH radical concentrations.

Longitudinal dispersion in laboratory and natural streams

This study concerns the longitudinal dispersion of fluid particles which are initially distributed uninformly over one cross section of a uniform, steady, turbulent open channel flow. The primary focus is on developing a method to predict the rate of dispersion in a natural stream.

Taylor's method of determining a dispersion coefficient, previously applied to flow in pipes and two-dimensional open channels, is extended to a class of three-dimensional flows which have large width-to-depth ratios, and in which the velocity varies continuously with lateral cross-sectional position. Most natural streams are included. The dispersion coefficient for a natural stream may be predicted from measurements of the channel cross-sectional geometry, the cross-sectional distribution of velocity, and the overall channel shear velocity. Tracer experiments are not required.

Large values of the dimensionless dispersion coefficient D/rU* are explained by lateral variations in downstream velocity. In effect, the characteristic length of the cross section is shown to be proportional to the width, rather than the hydraulic radius. The dimensionless dispersion coefficient depends approximately on the square of the width to depth ratio.

A numerical program is given which is capable of generating the entire dispersion pattern downstream from an instantaneous point or plane source of pollutant. The program is verified by the theory for two-dimensional flow, and gives results in good agreement with laboratory and field experiments.

Both laboratory and field experiments are described. Twenty-one laboratory experiments were conducted: thirteen in two-dimensional flows, over both smooth and roughened bottoms; and eight in three-dimensional flows, formed by adding extreme side roughness to produce lateral velocity variations. Four field experiments were conducted in the Green-Duwamish River, Washington.

Both laboratory and flume experiments prove that in three-dimensional flow the dominant mechanism for dispersion is lateral velocity variation. For instance, in one laboratory experiment the dimensionless dispersion coefficient D/rU* (where r is the hydraulic radius and U* the shear velocity) was increased by a factory of ten by roughening the channel banks. In three-dimensional laboratory flow, D/rU* varied from 190 to 640, a typical range for natural streams. For each experiment, the measured dispersion coefficient agreed with that predicted by the extension of Taylor's analysis within a maximum error of 15%. For the Green-Duwamish River, the average experimentally measured dispersion coefficient was within 5% of the prediction.