Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

First principles based multiparadigm modeling of electronic structures and dynamics

Electronic structures and dynamics are the key to linking the material composition and structure to functionality and performance.

An essential issue in developing semiconductor devices for photovoltaics is to design materials with optimal band gaps and relative positioning of band levels. Approximate DFT methods have been justified to predict band gaps from KS/GKS eigenvalues, but the accuracy is decisively dependent on the choice of XC functionals. We show here for CuInSe₂ and CuGaSe₂, the parent compounds of the promising CIGS solar cells, conventional LDA and GGA obtain gaps of 0.0-0.01 and 0.02-0.24 eV (versus experimental values of 1.04 and 1.67 eV), while the historically first global hybrid functional, B3PW91, is surprisingly the best, with band gaps of 1.07 and 1.58 eV. Furthermore, we show that for 27 related binary and ternary semiconductors, B3PW91 predicts gaps with a MAD of only 0.09 eV, which is substantially better than all modern hybrid functionals, including B3LYP (MAD of 0.19 eV) and screened hybrid functional HSE06 (MAD of 0.18 eV).

The laboratory performance of CIGS solar cells (> 20% efficiency) makes them promising candidate photovoltaic devices. However, there remains little understanding of how defects at the CIGS/CdS interface affect the band offsets and interfacial energies, and hence the performance of manufactured devices. To determine these relationships, we use the B3PW91 hybrid functional of DFT with the AEP method that we validate to provide very accurate descriptions of both band gaps and band offsets. This confirms the weak dependence of band offsets on surface orientation observed experimentally. We predict that the CBO of perfect CuInSe₂/CdS interface is large, 0.79 eV, which would dramatically degrade performance. Moreover we show that band gap widening induced by Ga adjusts only the VBO, and we find that Cd impurities do not significantly affect the CBO. Thus we show that Cu vacancies at the interface play the key role in enabling the tunability of CBO. We predict that Na further improves the CBO through electrostatically elevating the valence levels to decrease the CBO, explaining the observed essential role of Na for high performance. Moreover we find that K leads to a dramatic decrease in the CBO to 0.05 eV, much better than Na. We suggest that the efficiency of CIGS devices might be improved substantially by tuning the ratio of Na to K, with the improved phase stability of Na balancing phase instability from K. All these defects reduce interfacial stability slightly, but not significantly.

A number of exotic structures have been formed through high pressure chemistry, but applications have been hindered by difficulties in recovering the high pressure phase to ambient conditions (i.e., one atmosphere and room temperature). Here we use dispersion-corrected DFT (PBE-ulg flavor) to predict that above 60 GPa the most stable form of N₂O (the laughing gas in its molecular form) is a 1D polymer with an all-nitrogen backbone analogous to cis-polyacetylene in which alternate N are bonded (ionic covalent) to O. The analogous trans-polymer is only 0.03-0.10 eV/molecular unit less stable. Upon relaxation to ambient conditions both polymers relax below 14 GPa to the same stable non-planar trans-polymer, accompanied by possible electronic structure transitions. The predicted phonon spectrum and dissociation kinetics validate the stability of this trans-poly-NNO at ambient conditions, which has potential applications as a new type of conducting polymer with all-nitrogen chains and as a high-energy oxidizer for rocket propulsion. This work illustrates in silico materials discovery particularly in the realm of extreme conditions.

Modeling non-adiabatic electron dynamics has been a long-standing challenge for computational chemistry and materials science, and the eFF method presents a cost-efficient alternative. However, due to the deficiency of FSG representation, eFF is limited to low-Z elements with electrons of predominant s-character. To overcome this, we introduce a formal set of ECP extensions that enable accurate description of p-block elements. The extensions consist of a model representing the core electrons with the nucleus as a single pseudo particle represented by FSG, interacting with valence electrons through ECPs. We demonstrate and validate the ECP extensions for complex bonding structures, geometries, and energetics of systems with p-block character (C, O, Al, Si) and apply them to study materials under extreme mechanical loading conditions.

Despite its success, the eFF framework has some limitations, originated from both the design of Pauli potentials and the FSG representation. To overcome these, we develop a new framework of two-level hierarchy that is a more rigorous and accurate successor to the eFF method. The fundamental level, GHA-QM, is based on a new set of Pauli potentials that renders exact QM level of accuracy for any FSG represented electron systems. To achieve this, we start with using exactly derived energy expressions for the same spin electron pair, and fitting a simple functional form, inspired by DFT, against open singlet electron pair curves (H₂ systems). Symmetric and asymmetric scaling factors are then introduced at this level to recover the QM total energies of multiple electron pair systems from the sum of local interactions. To complement the imperfect FSG representation, the AMPERE extension is implemented, and aims at embedding the interactions associated with both the cusp condition and explicit nodal structures. The whole GHA-QM+AMPERE framework is tested on H element, and the preliminary results are promising.

Investigation of Fundamental Processes Governing Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Laboratory Chambers

Our understanding of the processes and mechanisms by which secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is formed is derived from laboratory chamber studies. In the atmosphere, SOA formation is primarily driven by progressive photooxidation of SOA precursors, coupled with their gas-particle partitioning. In the chamber environment, SOA-forming vapors undergo multiple chemical and physical processes that involve production and removal via gas-phase reactions; partitioning onto suspended particles vs. particles deposited on the chamber wall; and direct deposition on the chamber wall. The main focus of this dissertation is to characterize the interactions of organic vapors with suspended particles and the chamber wall and explore how these intertwined processes in laboratory chambers govern SOA formation and evolution.

A Functional Group Oxidation Model (FGOM) that represents SOA formation and evolution in terms of the competition between functionalization and fragmentation, the extent of oxygen atom addition, and the change of volatility, is developed. The FGOM contains a set of parameters that are to be determined by fitting of the model to laboratory chamber data. The sensitivity of the model prediction to variation of the adjustable parameters allows one to assess the relative importance of various pathways involved in SOA formation.

A critical aspect of the environmental chamber is the presence of the wall, which can induce deposition of SOA-forming vapors and promote heterogeneous reactions. An experimental protocol and model framework are first developed to constrain the vapor-wall interactions. By optimal fitting the model predictions to the observed wall-induced decay profiles of 25 oxidized organic compounds, the dominant parameter governing the extent of wall deposition of a compound is identified, i.e., wall accommodation coefficient. By correlating this parameter with the molecular properties of a compound via its volatility, the wall-induced deposition rate of an organic compound can be predicted based on its carbon and oxygen numbers in the molecule.

Heterogeneous transformation of δ-hydroxycarbonyl, a major first-generation product from long-chain alkane photochemistry, is observed on the surface of particles and walls. The uniqueness of this reaction scheme is the production of substituted dihydrofuran, which is highly reactive towards ozone, OH, and NO3, thereby opening a reaction pathway that is not usually accessible to alkanes. A spectrum of highly-oxygenated products with carboxylic acid, ester, and ether functional groups is produced from the substituted dihydrofuran chemistry, thereby affecting the average oxidation state of the alkane-derived SOA.

The vapor wall loss correction is applied to several chamber-derived SOA systems generated from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Experimental and modeling approaches are employed to constrain the partitioning behavior of SOA-forming vapors onto suspended particles vs. chamber walls. It is demonstrated that deposition of SOA-forming vapors to the chamber wall during photooxidation experiments can lead to substantial and systematic underestimation of SOA. Therefore, it is likely that a lack of proper accounting for vapor wall losses that suppress chamber-derived SOA yields contribute substantially to the underprediction of ambient SOA concentrations in atmospheric models.