Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

A measurement of inclusive quasi-elastic electron scattering cross sections at high momentum transfer

We have measured inclusive electron-scattering cross sections for targets of ^(4)He, C, Al, Fe, and Au, for kinematics spanning the quasi-elastic peak, with squared, four­ momentum transfers (q^2) between 0.23 and 2.89 (GeV/c)^2. Additional data were measured for Fe with q^2's up to 3.69 (GeV/c)^2 These cross sections were analyzed for the y-scaling behavior expected from a simple, impulse-approximation model, and are found to approach a scaling limit at the highest q^2's. The q^2 approach to scaling is compared with a calculation for infinite nuclear matter, and relationships between the scaling function and nucleon momentum distributions are discussed. Deviations from perfect scaling are used to set limits on possible changes in the size of nucleons inside the nucleus.

An integrated design approach to power systems : from power flows to electricity markets

Power system is at the brink of change. Engineering needs, economic forces and environmental factors are the main drivers of this change. The vision is to build a smart electrical grid and a smarter market mechanism around it to fulfill mandates on clean energy. Looking at engineering and economic issues in isolation is no longer an option today; it needs an integrated design approach. In this thesis, I shall revisit some of the classical questions on the engineering operation of power systems that deals with the nonconvexity of power flow equations. Then I shall explore some issues of the interaction of these power flow equations on the electricity markets to address the fundamental issue of market power in a deregulated market environment. Finally, motivated by the emergence of new storage technologies, I present an interesting result on the investment decision problem of placing storage over a power network. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that modern optimization and game theory can provide unique insights into this complex system. Some of the ideas carry over to applications beyond power systems.

I. Baryon-antibaryon phase transition at high temperature. II. Inclusive virtual photon-hadron reactions in the parton model

Part I

Present experimental data on nucleon-antinucleon scattering allow a study of the possibility of a phase transition in a nucleon-antinucleon gas at high temperature. Estimates can be made of the general behavior of the elastic phase shifts without resorting to theoretical derivation. A phase transition which separates nucleons from antinucleons is found at about 280 MeV in the approximation of the second virial coefficient to the free energy of the gas.

Part II

The parton model is used to derive scaling laws for the hadrons observed in deep inelastic electron-nucleon scattering which lie in the fragmentation region of the virtual photon. Scaling relations are obtained in the Bjorken and Regge regions. It is proposed that the distribution functions become independent of both q² and ν where the Bjorken and Regge regions overlap. The quark density functions are discussed in the limit x→1 for the nucleon octet and the pseudoscalar mesons. Under certain plausible assumptions it is found that only one or two quarks of the six types of quarks and antiquarks have an appreciable density function in the limit x→1. This has implications for the quark fragmentation functions near the large momentum boundary of their fragmentation region. These results are used to propose a method of measuring the proton and neutron quark density functions for all x by making measurements on inclusively produced hadrons in electroproduction only. Implications are also discussed for the hadrons produced in electron-positron annihilation.