Studies of ambient and chamber aerosol composition using the aerosol mass spectrometer

This thesis presents composition measurements for atmospherically relevant inorganic and organic aerosol from laboratory and ambient measurements using the Aerodyne aerosol mass spectrometer. Studies include the oxidation of dodecane in the Caltech environmental chambers, and several aircraft- and ground-based field studies, which include the quantification of wildfire emissions off the coast of California, and Los Angeles urban emissions.

The oxidation of dodecane by OH under low NO conditions and the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) was explored using a gas-phase chemical model, gas-phase CIMS measurements, and high molecular weight ion traces from particle- phase HR-TOF-AMS mass spectra. The combination of these measurements support the hypothesis that particle-phase chemistry leading to peroxyhemiacetal formation is important. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) was applied to the AMS mass spectra which revealed three factors representing a combination of gas-particle partitioning, chemical conversion in the aerosol, and wall deposition.

Airborne measurements of biomass burning emissions from a chaparral fire on the central Californian coast were carried out in November 2009. Physical and chemical changes were reported for smoke ages 0 – 4 h old. CO₂ normalized ammonium, nitrate, and sulfate increased, whereas the normalized OA decreased sharply in the first 1.5 - 2 h, and then slowly increased for the remaining 2 h (net decrease in normalized OA). Comparison to wildfire samples from the Yucatan revealed that factors such as relative humidity, incident UV radiation, age of smoke, and concentration of emissions are important for wildfire evolution.

Ground-based aerosol composition is reported for Pasadena, CA during the summer of 2009. The OA component, which dominated the submicron aerosol mass, was deconvolved into hydrocarbon-like organic aerosol (HOA), semi-volatile oxidized organic aerosol (SVOOA), and low-volatility oxidized organic aerosol (LVOOA). The HOA/OA was only 0.08–0.23, indicating that most of Pasadena OA in the summer months is dominated by oxidized OA resulting from transported emissions that have undergone photochemistry and/or moisture-influenced processing, as apposed to only primary organic aerosol emissions. Airborne measurements and model predictions of aerosol composition are reported for the 2010 CalNex field campaign.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

Design strategies for ultra-high efficiency photovoltaics

While concentrator photovoltaic cells have shown significant improvements in efficiency in the past ten years, once these cells are integrated into concentrating optics, connected to a power conditioning system and deployed in the field, the overall module efficiency drops to only 34 to 36%. This efficiency is impressive compared to conventional flat plate modules, but it is far short of the theoretical limits for solar energy conversion. Designing a system capable of achieving ultra high efficiency of 50% or greater cannot be achieved by refinement and iteration of current design approaches.

This thesis takes a systems approach to designing a photovoltaic system capable of 50% efficient performance using conventional diode-based solar cells. The effort began with an exploration of the limiting efficiency of spectrum splitting ensembles with 2 to 20 sub cells in different electrical configurations. Incorporating realistic non-ideal performance with the computationally simple detailed balance approach resulted in practical limits that are useful to identify specific cell performance requirements. This effort quantified the relative benefit of additional cells and concentration for system efficiency, which will help in designing practical optical systems.

Efforts to improve the quality of the solar cells themselves focused on the development of tunable lattice constant epitaxial templates. Initially intended to enable lattice matched multijunction solar cells, these templates would enable increased flexibility in band gap selection for spectrum splitting ensembles and enhanced radiative quality relative to metamorphic growth. The III-V material family is commonly used for multijunction solar cells both for its high radiative quality and for the ease of integrating multiple band gaps into one monolithic growth. The band gap flexibility is limited by the lattice constant of available growth templates. The virtual substrate consists of a thin III-V film with the desired lattice constant. The film is grown strained on an available wafer substrate, but the thickness is below the dislocation nucleation threshold. By removing the film from the growth substrate, allowing the strain to relax elastically, and bonding it to a supportive handle, a template with the desired lattice constant is formed. Experimental efforts towards this structure and initial proof of concept are presented.

Cells with high radiative quality present the opportunity to recover a large amount of their radiative losses if they are incorporated in an ensemble that couples emission from one cell to another. This effect is well known, but has been explored previously in the context of sub cells that independently operate at their maximum power point. This analysis explicitly accounts for the system interaction and identifies ways to enhance overall performance by operating some cells in an ensemble at voltages that reduce the power converted in the individual cell. Series connected multijunctions, which by their nature facilitate strong optical coupling between sub-cells, are reoptimized with substantial performance benefit.

Photovoltaic efficiency is usually measured relative to a standard incident spectrum to allow comparison between systems. Deployed in the field systems may differ in energy production due to sensitivity to changes in the spectrum. The series connection constraint in particular causes system efficiency to decrease as the incident spectrum deviates from the standard spectral composition. This thesis performs a case study comparing performance of systems over a year at a particular location to identify the energy production penalty caused by series connection relative to independent electrical connection.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Secondary Organic Aerosol Composition Studies Using Mass Spectrometry

Trace volatile organic compounds emitted by biogenic and anthropogenic sources into the atmosphere can undergo extensive photooxidation to form species with lower volatility. By equilibrium partitioning or reactive uptake, these compounds can nucleate into new aerosol particles or deposit onto already-existing particles to form secondary organic aerosol (SOA). SOA and other atmospheric particulate matter have measurable effects on global climate and public health, making understanding SOA formation a needed field of scientific inquiry. SOA formation can be done in a laboratory setting, using an environmental chamber; under these controlled conditions it is possible to generate SOA from a single parent compound and study the chemical composition of the gas and particle phases. By studying the SOA composition, it is possible to gain understanding of the chemical reactions that occur in the gas phase and particle phase, and identify potential heterogeneous processes that occur at the surface of SOA particles. In this thesis, mass spectrometric methods are used to identify qualitatively and qualitatively the chemical components of SOA derived from the photooxidation of important anthropogenic volatile organic compounds that are associated with gasoline and diesel fuels and industrial activity (C12 alkanes, toluene, and o-, m-, and p-cresols). The conditions under which SOA was generated in each system were varied to explore the effect of NO_x and inorganic seed composition on SOA chemical composition. The structure of the parent alkane was varied to investigate the effect on the functionalization and fragmentation of the resulting oxidation products. Relative humidity was varied in the alkane system as well to measure the effect of increased particle-phase water on condensed-phase reactions. In all systems, oligomeric species, resulting potentially from particle-phase and heterogeneous processes, were identified. Imines produced by reactions between (NH₄)₂SO₄ seed and carbonyl compounds were identified in all systems. Multigenerational photochemistry producing low- and extremely low-volatility organic compounds (LVOC and ELVOC) was reflected strongly in the particle-phase composition as well.

Investigation of Fundamental Processes Governing Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Laboratory Chambers

Our understanding of the processes and mechanisms by which secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is formed is derived from laboratory chamber studies. In the atmosphere, SOA formation is primarily driven by progressive photooxidation of SOA precursors, coupled with their gas-particle partitioning. In the chamber environment, SOA-forming vapors undergo multiple chemical and physical processes that involve production and removal via gas-phase reactions; partitioning onto suspended particles vs. particles deposited on the chamber wall; and direct deposition on the chamber wall. The main focus of this dissertation is to characterize the interactions of organic vapors with suspended particles and the chamber wall and explore how these intertwined processes in laboratory chambers govern SOA formation and evolution.

A Functional Group Oxidation Model (FGOM) that represents SOA formation and evolution in terms of the competition between functionalization and fragmentation, the extent of oxygen atom addition, and the change of volatility, is developed. The FGOM contains a set of parameters that are to be determined by fitting of the model to laboratory chamber data. The sensitivity of the model prediction to variation of the adjustable parameters allows one to assess the relative importance of various pathways involved in SOA formation.

A critical aspect of the environmental chamber is the presence of the wall, which can induce deposition of SOA-forming vapors and promote heterogeneous reactions. An experimental protocol and model framework are first developed to constrain the vapor-wall interactions. By optimal fitting the model predictions to the observed wall-induced decay profiles of 25 oxidized organic compounds, the dominant parameter governing the extent of wall deposition of a compound is identified, i.e., wall accommodation coefficient. By correlating this parameter with the molecular properties of a compound via its volatility, the wall-induced deposition rate of an organic compound can be predicted based on its carbon and oxygen numbers in the molecule.

Heterogeneous transformation of δ-hydroxycarbonyl, a major first-generation product from long-chain alkane photochemistry, is observed on the surface of particles and walls. The uniqueness of this reaction scheme is the production of substituted dihydrofuran, which is highly reactive towards ozone, OH, and NO3, thereby opening a reaction pathway that is not usually accessible to alkanes. A spectrum of highly-oxygenated products with carboxylic acid, ester, and ether functional groups is produced from the substituted dihydrofuran chemistry, thereby affecting the average oxidation state of the alkane-derived SOA.

The vapor wall loss correction is applied to several chamber-derived SOA systems generated from both anthropogenic and biogenic sources. Experimental and modeling approaches are employed to constrain the partitioning behavior of SOA-forming vapors onto suspended particles vs. chamber walls. It is demonstrated that deposition of SOA-forming vapors to the chamber wall during photooxidation experiments can lead to substantial and systematic underestimation of SOA. Therefore, it is likely that a lack of proper accounting for vapor wall losses that suppress chamber-derived SOA yields contribute substantially to the underprediction of ambient SOA concentrations in atmospheric models.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

Efficiency and inefficiency in the operation of the Bureau of Power and Light of Los Angeles, California

In work of this nature it is advisable to state definitely the problem attempted in order that the reader may have a clear understanding of the object of the work undertaken. The problem involved is to determine the efficiency and inefficiency in the operation of the Bureau of Power and Light of Los Angeles, California, as it exists at the present time. This will be more on the order of a government investigation than a purely engineering thesis. An engineering thesis consists or reports based on experiments and tests, etc., while the present undertaking will consist of investigation of the facts concerning the organization, operation and conduct of the business of the Bureau of Power and Light. The facts presented were obtained from several sources: (1) the writer's knowledge of the business; (2) books written on municipal ownership; (3) reports published by the Bureau, and (4) personal interviews with men connected with the organization. I have endeavored to draw conclusions from the facts thus obtained, as to the present status of the Bureau of Power and Light.

Photonic and Device Design Principles for Ultrahigh-Efficiency (>50%), Spectrum-Splitting Photovoltaics

The sun has the potential to power the Earth's total energy needs, but electricity from solar power still constitutes an extremely small fraction of our power generation because of its high cost relative to traditional energy sources. Therefore, the cost of solar must be reduced to realize a more sustainable future. This can be achieved by significantly increasing the efficiency of modules that convert solar radiation to electricity. In this thesis, we consider several strategies to improve the device and photonic design of solar modules to achieve record, ultrahigh (> 50%) solar module efficiencies. First, we investigate the potential of a new passivation treatment, trioctylphosphine sulfide, to increase the performance of small GaAs solar cells for cheaper and more durable modules. We show that small cells (mm2), which currently have a significant efficiency decrease (~ 5%) compared to larger cells (cm2) because small cells have a higher fraction of recombination-active surface from the sidewalls, can achieve significantly higher efficiencies with effective passivation of the sidewalls. We experimentally validate the passivation qualities of treatment by trioctylphosphine sulfide (TOP:S) through four independent studies and show that this facile treatment can enable efficient small devices. Then, we discuss our efforts toward the design and prototyping of a spectrum-splitting module that employs optical elements to divide the incident spectrum into different color bands, which allows for higher efficiencies than traditional methods. We present a design, the polyhedral specular reflector, that has the potential for > 50% module efficiencies even with realistic losses from combined optics, cell, and electrical models. Prototyping efforts of one of these designs using glass concentrators yields an optical module whose combined spectrum-splitting and concentration should correspond to a record module efficiency of 42%. Finally, we consider how the manipulation of radiatively emitted photons from subcells in multijunction architectures can be used to achieve even higher efficiencies than previously thought, inspiring both optimization of incident and radiatively emitted photons for future high efficiency designs. In this thesis work, we explore novel device and photonic designs that represent a significant departure from current solar cell manufacturing techniques and ultimately show the potential for much higher solar cell efficiencies.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

Paths Towards High Efficiency Silicon Photovoltaics

While photovoltaics hold much promise as a sustainable electricity source, continued cost reduction is necessary to continue the current growth in deployment. A promising path to continuing to reduce total system cost is by increasing device efficiency. This thesis explores several silicon-based photovoltaic technologies with the potential to reach high power conversion efficiencies. Silicon microwire arrays, formed by joining millions of micron diameter wires together, were developed as a low cost, low efficiency solar technology. The feasibility of transitioning this to a high efficiency technology was explored. In order to achieve high efficiency, high quality silicon material must be used. Lifetimes and diffusion lengths in these wires were measured and the action of various surface passivation treatments studied. While long lifetimes were not achieved, strong inversion at the silicon / hydrofluoric acid interface was measured, which is important for understanding a common measurement used in solar materials characterization.

Cryogenic deep reactive ion etching was then explored as a method for fabricating high quality wires and improved lifetimes were measured. As another way to reach high efficiency, growth of silicon-germanium alloy wires was explored as a substrate for a III-V on Si tandem device. Patterned arrays of wires with up to 12% germanium incorporation were grown. This alloy is more closely lattice matched to GaP than silicon and allows for improvements in III-V integration on silicon.

Heterojunctions of silicon are another promising path towards achieving high efficiency devices. The GaP/Si heterointerface and properties of GaP grown on silicon were studied. Additionally, a substrate removal process was developed which allows the formation of high quality free standing GaP films and has wide applications in the field of optics.

Finally, the effect of defects at the interface of the amorphous silicon heterojuction cell was studied. Excellent voltages, and thus efficiencies, are achievable with this system, but the voltage is very sensitive to growth conditions. We directly measured lateral transport lengths at the heterointerface on the order of tens to hundreds of microns, which allows carriers to travel towards any defects that are present and recombine. This measurement adds to the understanding of these types of high efficiency devices and may aid in future device design.