Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Characterization of the neural mechanisms supporting the implementation of cognitive control in human decision making

Humans are particularly adept at modifying their behavior in accordance with changing environmental demands. Through various mechanisms of cognitive control, individuals are able to tailor actions to fit complex short- and long-term goals. The research described in this thesis uses functional magnetic resonance imaging to characterize the neural correlates of cognitive control at two levels of complexity: response inhibition and self-control in intertemporal choice. First, we examined changes in neural response associated with increased experience and skill in response inhibition; successful response inhibition was associated with decreased neural response over time in the right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex, a region widely implicated in cognitive control, providing evidence for increased neural efficiency with learned automaticity. We also examined a more abstract form of cognitive control using intertemporal choice. In two experiments, we identified putative neural substrates for individual differences in temporal discounting, or the tendency to prefer immediate to delayed rewards. Using dynamic causal models, we characterized the neural circuit between ventromedial prefrontal cortex, an area involved in valuation, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a region implicated in self-control in intertemporal and dietary choice, and found that connectivity from dorsolateral prefrontal cortex to ventromedial prefrontal cortex increases at the time of choice, particularly when delayed rewards are chosen. Moreover, estimates of the strength of connectivity predicted out-of-sample individual rates of temporal discounting, suggesting a neurocomputational mechanism for variation in the ability to delay gratification. Next, we interrogated the hypothesis that individual differences in temporal discounting are in part explained by the ability to imagine future reward outcomes. Using a novel paradigm, we imaged neural response during the imagining of primary rewards, and identified negative correlations between activity in regions associated the processing of both real and imagined rewards (lateral orbitofrontal cortex and ventromedial prefrontal cortex, respectively) and the individual temporal discounting parameters estimated in the previous experiment. These data suggest that individuals who are better able to represent reward outcomes neurally are less susceptible to temporal discounting. Together, these findings provide further insight into role of the prefrontal cortex in implementing cognitive control, and propose neurobiological substrates for individual variation.

A colorimetric determination of hydrocyanic acid

The object of this investigation is to devise a rapid, fairly accurate, colorimetric analysis for HCN to be used in field work for determining instantaneous concentrations of the gas under fumigating canvas. A large amount of money is expended yearly by the citrus industry of this state in attempting to control and to eradicate the scale pests. Although fumigation with HCN has been practiced tor many years, the progress made has been anything but satisfactory. The greater portion of the work has always been carried on by contractors, who in a large number of cases have been very unscrupulous. The materials and labor are very expensive and the growers have been satisfied to adhere to beaten paths and hope for the best results on scale kill with the least attendant foliage injury. One familiar with fumigating, either from the grower's or the operator's viewpoint, knows that very widely varying results are obtained, even under what are apparently identical condition. Even after discounting for the dishonesty of some operators and the prejudices of the grower, there is still a large variance between desired or expected results and those actually obtained.

Advancements in jet turbulence and noise modeling: accurate one-way solutions and empirical evaluation of the nonlinear forcing of wavepackets

Jet noise reduction is an important goal within both commercial and military aviation. Although large-scale numerical simulations are now able to simultaneously compute turbulent jets and their radiated sound, lost-cost, physically-motivated models are needed to guide noise-reduction efforts. A particularly promising modeling approach centers around certain large-scale coherent structures, called wavepackets, that are observed in jets and their radiated sound. The typical approach to modeling wavepackets is to approximate them as linear modal solutions of the Euler or Navier-Stokes equations linearized about the long-time mean of the turbulent flow field. The near-field wavepackets obtained from these models show compelling agreement with those educed from experimental and simulation data for both subsonic and supersonic jets, but the acoustic radiation is severely under-predicted in the subsonic case. This thesis contributes to two aspects of these models. First, two new solution methods are developed that can be used to efficiently compute wavepackets and their acoustic radiation, reducing the computational cost of the model by more than an order of magnitude. The new techniques are spatial integration methods and constitute a well-posed, convergent alternative to the frequently used parabolized stability equations. Using concepts related to well-posed boundary conditions, the methods are formulated for general hyperbolic equations and thus have potential applications in many fields of physics and engineering. Second, the nonlinear and stochastic forcing of wavepackets is investigated with the goal of identifying and characterizing the missing dynamics responsible for the under-prediction of acoustic radiation by linear wavepacket models for subsonic jets. Specifically, we use ensembles of large-eddy-simulation flow and force data along with two data decomposition techniques to educe the actual nonlinear forcing experienced by wavepackets in a Mach 0.9 turbulent jet. Modes with high energy are extracted using proper orthogonal decomposition, while high gain modes are identified using a novel technique called empirical resolvent-mode decomposition. In contrast to the flow and acoustic fields, the forcing field is characterized by a lack of energetic coherent structures. Furthermore, the structures that do exist are largely uncorrelated with the acoustic field. Instead, the forces that most efficiently excite an acoustic response appear to take the form of random turbulent fluctuations, implying that direct feedback from nonlinear interactions amongst wavepackets is not an essential noise source mechanism. This suggests that the essential ingredients of sound generation in high Reynolds number jets are contained within the linearized Navier-Stokes operator rather than in the nonlinear forcing terms, a conclusion that has important implications for jet noise modeling.

Essays in revealed preference theory and behavioral economics

Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

On the uniqueness of singular solutions to boundary-initial value problems in linear elastodynamics

This investigation deals with certain generalizations of the classical uniqueness theorem for the second boundary-initial value problem in the linearized dynamical theory of not necessarily homogeneous nor isotropic elastic solids. First, the regularity assumptions underlying the foregoing theorem are relaxed by admitting stress fields with suitably restricted finite jump discontinuities. Such singularities are familiar from known solutions to dynamical elasticity problems involving discontinuous surface tractions or non-matching boundary and initial conditions. The proof of the appropriate uniqueness theorem given here rests on a generalization of the usual energy identity to the class of singular elastodynamic fields under consideration.

Following this extension of the conventional uniqueness theorem, we turn to a further relaxation of the customary smoothness hypotheses and allow the displacement field to be differentiable merely in a generalized sense, thereby admitting stress fields with square-integrable unbounded local singularities, such as those encountered in the presence of focusing of elastic waves. A statement of the traction problem applicable in these pathological circumstances necessitates the introduction of "weak solutions'' to the field equations that are accompanied by correspondingly weakened boundary and initial conditions. A uniqueness theorem pertaining to this weak formulation is then proved through an adaptation of an argument used by O. Ladyzhenskaya in connection with the first boundary-initial value problem for a second-order hyperbolic equation in a single dependent variable. Moreover, the second uniqueness theorem thus obtained contains, as a special case, a slight modification of the previously established uniqueness theorem covering solutions that exhibit only finite stress-discontinuities.