Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Single cell proteomics microchip to profile immune function, with applications in stem cell biology, translational disease mechanism study and clinical therapeutics monitoring

In response to infection or tissue dysfunction, immune cells develop into highly heterogeneous repertoires with diverse functions. Capturing the full spectrum of these functions requires analysis of large numbers of effector molecules from single cells. However, currently only 3-5 functional proteins can be measured from single cells. We developed a single cell functional proteomics approach that integrates a microchip platform with multiplex cell purification. This approach can quantitate 20 proteins from >5,000 phenotypically pure single cells simultaneously. With a 1-million fold miniaturization, the system can detect down to ~100 molecules and requires only ~104 cells. Single cell functional proteomic analysis finds broad applications in basic, translational and clinical studies. In the three studies conducted, it yielded critical insights for understanding clinical cancer immunotherapy, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) mechanism and hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) biology.

To study phenotypically defined cell populations, single cell barcode microchips were coupled with upstream multiplex cell purification based on up to 11 parameters. Statistical algorithms were developed to process and model the high dimensional readouts. This analysis evaluates rare cells and is versatile for various cells and proteins. (1) We conducted an immune monitoring study of a phase 2 cancer cellular immunotherapy clinical trial that used T-cell receptor (TCR) transgenic T cells as major therapeutics to treat metastatic melanoma. We evaluated the functional proteome of 4 antigen-specific, phenotypically defined T cell populations from peripheral blood of 3 patients across 8 time points. (2) Natural killer (NK) cells can play a protective role in chronic inflammation and their surface receptor – killer immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIR) – has been identified as a risk factor of IBD. We compared the functional behavior of NK cells that had differential KIR expressions. These NK cells were retrieved from the blood of 12 patients with different genetic backgrounds. (3) HSCs are the progenitors of immune cells and are thought to have no immediate functional capacity against pathogen. However, recent studies identified expression of Toll-like receptors (TLRs) on HSCs. We studied the functional capacity of HSCs upon TLR activation. The comparison of HSCs from wild-type mice against those from genetics knock-out mouse models elucidates the responding signaling pathway.

In all three cases, we observed profound functional heterogeneity within phenotypically defined cells. Polyfunctional cells that conduct multiple functions also produce those proteins in large amounts. They dominate the immune response. In the cancer immunotherapy, the strong cytotoxic and antitumor functions from transgenic TCR T cells contributed to a ~30% tumor reduction immediately after the therapy. However, this infused immune response disappeared within 2-3 weeks. Later on, some patients gained a second antitumor response, consisted of the emergence of endogenous antitumor cytotoxic T cells and their production of multiple antitumor functions. These patients showed more effective long-term tumor control. In the IBD mechanism study, we noticed that, compared with others, NK cells expressing KIR2DL3 receptor secreted a large array of effector proteins, such as TNF-α, CCLs and CXCLs. The functions from these cells regulated disease-contributing cells and protected host tissues. Their existence correlated with IBD disease susceptibility. In the HSC study, the HSCs exhibited functional capacity by producing TNF-α, IL-6 and GM-CSF. TLR stimulation activated the NF-κB signaling in HSCs. Single cell functional proteome contains rich information that is independent from the genome and transcriptome. In all three cases, functional proteomic evaluation uncovered critical biological insights that would not be resolved otherwise. The integrated single cell functional proteomic analysis constructed a detail kinetic picture of the immune response that took place during the clinical cancer immunotherapy. It revealed concrete functional evidence that connected genetics to IBD disease susceptibility. Further, it provided predictors that correlated with clinical responses and pathogenic outcomes.

The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

I. The effect of N,N,N',N' -tetramethylethylenediamine on the Schlenk Equilibrium. II. The nature of the Di-Grignard reagent

I. The influence of N,N,N’,N’-tetramethylethylenediamine on the Schlenk equilibrium

The equilibrium between ethylmagnesium bromide, diethylmagnesium, and magnesium bromide has been studied by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. The interconversion of the species is very fast on the nmr time scale, and only an averaged spectrum is observed for the ethyl species. When N,N,N’,N’-tetramethylethylenediamine is added to solutions of these reagents in tetrahydrofuran, the rate of interconversion is reduced. At temperatures near -50°, two ethylmagnesium species have been observed. These are attributed to the different ethyl groups in ethylmagnesium bromide and diethylmagnesium, two of the species involved in the Schlenk equilibrium of Grignard reagents.

II. The nature of di-Grignard reagents

Di-Grignard reagents have been examined by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in an attempt to prove that dialkylmagnesium reagents are in equilibrium with alkylmagnesium halides. The di-Grignard reagents of compounds such as 1,4-dibromobutane have been investigated. The dialkylmagnesium form of this di-Grignard reagent can exist as an intramolecular cyclic species, tetramethylene-magnesium. This cyclic form would give an nmr spectrum different from that of the classical alkylmagnesium halide di-Grignard reagent. In dimethyl ether-tetrahydrofuran solutions of di-Grignard reagents containing N N,N,N’,N’-Tetramethylethylenediamine, evidence has been found for the existence of an intramolecular dialkylmagnesium species. This species is rapidly equilibrating with other forms, but at low temperatures, the rates of interconversion are reduced. Two species can be seen in the nmr spectrum at -50°. One is the cyclic species; the other is an open form.

Inversion of the carbon at the carbon-magnesium bond in di-Grignard reagents has also been studied. This process is much faster than in corresponding monofunctional Grignard reagents.

Imaging the earth with ambient noise and earthquakes

In this thesis, I develop the velocity and structure models for the Los Angeles Basin and Southern Peru. The ultimate goal is to better understand the geological processes involved in the basin and subduction zone dynamics. The results are obtained from seismic interferometry using ambient noise and receiver functions using earthquake- generated waves. Some unusual signals specific to the local structures are also studied. The main findings are summarized as follows:

(1) Los Angeles Basin

The shear wave velocities range from 0.5 to 3.0 km/s in the sediments, with lateral gradients at the Newport-Inglewood, Compton-Los Alamitos, and Whittier Faults. The basin is a maximum of 8 km deep along the profile, and the Moho rises to a depth of 17 km under the basin. The basin has a stretch factor of 2.6 in the center decreasing to 1.3 at the edges, and is in approximate isostatic equilibrium. This "high-density" (~1 km spacing) "short-duration" (~1.5 month) experiment may serve as a prototype experiment that will allow basins to be covered by this type of low-cost survey.

(2) Peruvian subduction zone

Two prominent mid-crust structures are revealed in the 70 km thick crust under the Central Andes: a low-velocity zone interpreted as partially molten rocks beneath the Western Cordillera – Altiplano Plateau, and the underthrusting Brazilian Shield beneath the Eastern Cordillera. The low-velocity zone is oblique to the present trench, and possibly indicates the location of the volcanic arcs formed during the steepening of the Oligocene flat slab beneath the Altiplano Plateau.

The Nazca slab changes from normal dipping (~25 degrees) subduction in the southeast to flat subduction in the northwest of the study area. In the flat subduction regime, the slab subducts to ~100 km depth and then remains flat for ~300 km distance before it resumes a normal dipping geometry. The flat part closely follows the topography of the continental Moho above, indicating a strong suction force between the slab and the overriding plate. A high-velocity mantle wedge exists above the western half of the flat slab, which indicates the lack of melting and thus explains the cessation of the volcanism above. The velocity turns to normal values before the slab steepens again, indicating possible resumption of dehydration and ecologitization.

(3) Some unusual signals

Strong higher-mode Rayleigh waves due to the basin structure are observed in the periods less than 5 s. The particle motions provide a good test for distinguishing between the fundamental and higher mode. The precursor and coda waves relative to the interstation Rayleigh waves are observed, and modeled with a strong scatterer located in the active volcanic area in Southern Peru. In contrast with the usual receiver function analysis, multiples are extensively involved in this thesis. In the LA Basin, a good image is only from PpPs multiples, while in Peru, PpPp multiples contribute significantly to the final results.

I. The structure and properties of closed circular duplex DNA. II. Chemically interacting systems at equilibrium in a buoyant density gradient

I. The binding of the intercalating dye ethidium bromide to closed circular SV 40 DNA causes an unwinding of the duplex structure and a simultaneous and quantitatively equivalent unwinding of the superhelices. The buoyant densities and sedimentation velocities of both intact (I) and singly nicked (II) SV 40 DNAs were measured as a function of free dye concentration. The buoyant density data were used to determine the binding isotherms over a dye concentration range extending from 0 to 600 µg/m1 in 5.8 M CsCl. At high dye concentrations all of the binding sites in II, but not in I, are saturated. At free dye concentrations less than 5.4 µg/ml, I has a greater affinity for dye than II. At a critical amount of dye bound I and II have equal affinities, and at higher dye concentration I has a lower affinity than II. The number of superhelical turns, τ, present in I is calculated at each dye concentration using Fuller and Waring's (1964) estimate of the angle of duplex unwinding per intercalation. The results reveal that SV 40 DNA I contains about -13 superhelical turns in concentrated salt solutions.

The free energy of superhelix formation is calculated as a function of τ from a consideration of the effect of the superhelical turns upon the binding isotherm of ethidium bromide to SV 40 DNA I. The value of the free energy is about 100 kcal/mole DNA in the native molecule. The free energy estimates are used to calculate the pitch and radius of the superhelix as a function of the number of superhelical turns. The pitch and radius of the native I superhelix are 430 Å and 135 Å, respectively.

A buoyant density method for the isolation and detection of closed circular DNA is described. The method is based upon the reduced binding of the intercalating dye, ethidium bromide, by closed circular DNA. In an application of this method it is found that HeLa cells contain in addition to closed circular mitochondrial DNA of mean length 4.81 microns, a heterogeneous group of smaller DNA molecules which vary in size from 0.2 to 3.5 microns and a paucidisperse group of multiples of the mitochondrial length.

II. The general theory is presented for the sedimentation equilibrium of a macromolecule in a concentrated binary solvent in the presence of an additional reacting small molecule. Equations are derived for the calculation of the buoyant density of the complex and for the determination of the binding isotherm of the reagent to the macrospecies. The standard buoyant density, a thermodynamic function, is defined and the density gradients which characterize the four component system are derived. The theory is applied to the specific cases of the binding of ethidium bromide to SV 40 DNA and of the binding of mercury and silver to DNA.