Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Numerical methods for ill-posed, linear problems

A means of assessing the effectiveness of methods used in the numerical solution of various linear ill-posed problems is outlined. Two methods: Tikhonov' s method of regularization and the quasireversibility method of Lattès and Lions are appraised from this point of view.

In the former method, Tikhonov provides a useful means for incorporating a constraint into numerical algorithms. The analysis suggests that the approach can be generalized to embody constraints other than those employed by Tikhonov. This is effected and the general "T-method" is the result.

A T-method is used on an extended version of the backwards heat equation with spatially variable coefficients. Numerical computations based upon it are performed.

The statistical method developed by Franklin is shown to have an interpretation as a T-method. This interpretation, although somewhat loose, does explain some empirical convergence properties which are difficult to pin down via a purely statistical argument.

Four essays on the empirical analysis of political ideology

This thesis examines four distinct facets and methods for understanding political ideology, and so it includes four distinct chapters with only moderate connections between them. Chapter 2 examines how reactions to emotional stimuli vary with political opinion, and how the stimuli can produce changes in an individuals political preferences. Chapter 3 examines the connection between self-reported fear and item nonresponse on surveys. Chapter 4 examines the connection between political and moral consistency with low-dimensional ideology, and Chapter 5 develops a technique for estimating ideal points and salience in a low-dimensional ideological space.

Methods for melting temperature calculation

Melting temperature calculation has important applications in the theoretical study of phase diagrams and computational materials screenings. In this thesis, we present two new methods, i.e., the improved Widom's particle insertion method and the small-cell coexistence method, which we developed in order to capture melting temperatures both accurately and quickly.

We propose a scheme that drastically improves the efficiency of Widom's particle insertion method by efficiently sampling cavities while calculating the integrals providing the chemical potentials of a physical system. This idea enables us to calculate chemical potentials of liquids directly from first-principles without the help of any reference system, which is necessary in the commonly used thermodynamic integration method. As an example, we apply our scheme, combined with the density functional formalism, to the calculation of the chemical potential of liquid copper. The calculated chemical potential is further used to locate the melting temperature. The calculated results closely agree with experiments.

We propose the small-cell coexistence method based on the statistical analysis of small-size coexistence MD simulations. It eliminates the risk of a metastable superheated solid in the fast-heating method, while also significantly reducing the computer cost relative to the traditional large-scale coexistence method. Using empirical potentials, we validate the method and systematically study the finite-size effect on the calculated melting points. The method converges to the exact result in the limit of a large system size. An accuracy within 100 K in melting temperature is usually achieved when the simulation contains more than 100 atoms. DFT examples of Tantalum, high-pressure Sodium, and ionic material NaCl are shown to demonstrate the accuracy and flexibility of the method in its practical applications. The method serves as a promising approach for large-scale automated material screening in which the melting temperature is a design criterion.

We present in detail two examples of refractory materials. First, we demonstrate how key material properties that provide guidance in the design of refractory materials can be accurately determined via ab initio thermodynamic calculations in conjunction with experimental techniques based on synchrotron X-ray diffraction and thermal analysis under laser-heated aerodynamic levitation. The properties considered include melting point, heat of fusion, heat capacity, thermal expansion coefficients, thermal stability, and sublattice disordering, as illustrated in a motivating example of lanthanum zirconate (La₂Zr₂O₇). The close agreement with experiment in the known but structurally complex compound La₂Zr₂O₇ provides good indication that the computation methods described can be used within a computational screening framework to identify novel refractory materials. Second, we report an extensive investigation into the melting temperatures of the Hf-C and Hf-Ta-C systems using ab initio calculations. With melting points above 4000 K, hafnium carbide (HfC) and tantalum carbide (TaC) are among the most refractory binary compounds known to date. Their mixture, with a general formula Ta_xHf_1-xC_y, is known to have a melting point of 4215 K at the composition Ta₄HfC₅, which has long been considered as the highest melting temperature for any solid. Very few measurements of melting point in tantalum and hafnium carbides have been documented, because of the obvious experimental difficulties at extreme temperatures. The investigation lets us identify three major chemical factors that contribute to the high melting temperatures. Based on these three factors, we propose and explore a new class of materials, which, according to our ab initio calculations, may possess even higher melting temperatures than Ta-Hf-C. This example also demonstrates the feasibility of materials screening and discovery via ab initio calculations for the optimization of "higher-level" properties whose determination requires extensive sampling of atomic configuration space.

Formal methods in the foundations of science

The intent of this study is to provide formal apparatus which facilitates the investigation of problems in the methodology of science. The introduction contains several examples of such problems and motivates the subsequent formalism.

A general definition of a formal language is presented, and this definition is used to characterize an individual’s view of the world around him. A notion of empirical observation is developed which is independent of language. The interplay of formal language and observation is taken as the central theme. The process of science is conceived as the finding of that formal language that best expresses the available experimental evidence.

To characterize the manner in which a formal language imposes structure on its universe of discourse, the fundamental concepts of elements and states of a formal language are introduced. Using these, the notion of a basis for a formal language is developed as a collection of minimal states distinguishable within the language. The relation of these concepts to those of model theory is discussed.

An a priori probability defined on sets of observations is postulated as a reflection of an individual’s ontology. This probability, in conjunction with a formal language and a basis for that language, induces a subjective probability describing an individual’s conceptual view of admissible configurations of the universe. As a function of this subjective probability, and consequently of language, a measure of the informativeness of empirical observations is introduced and is shown to be intuitively plausible – particularly in the case of scientific experimentation.

The developed formalism is then systematically applied to the general problems presented in the introduction. The relationship of scientific theories to empirical observations is discussed and the need for certain tacit, unstatable knowledge is shown to be necessary to fully comprehend the meaning of realistic theories. The idea that many common concepts can be specified only by drawing on knowledge obtained from an infinite number of observations is presented, and the problems of reductionism are examined in this context.

A definition of when one formal language can be considered to be more expressive than another is presented, and the change in the informativeness of an observation as language changes is investigated. In this regard it is shown that the information inherent in an observation may decrease for a more expressive language.

The general problem of induction and its relation to the scientific method are discussed. Two hypotheses concerning an individual’s selection of an optimal language for a particular domain of discourse are presented and specific examples from the introduction are examined.

Advancements in jet turbulence and noise modeling: accurate one-way solutions and empirical evaluation of the nonlinear forcing of wavepackets

Jet noise reduction is an important goal within both commercial and military aviation. Although large-scale numerical simulations are now able to simultaneously compute turbulent jets and their radiated sound, lost-cost, physically-motivated models are needed to guide noise-reduction efforts. A particularly promising modeling approach centers around certain large-scale coherent structures, called wavepackets, that are observed in jets and their radiated sound. The typical approach to modeling wavepackets is to approximate them as linear modal solutions of the Euler or Navier-Stokes equations linearized about the long-time mean of the turbulent flow field. The near-field wavepackets obtained from these models show compelling agreement with those educed from experimental and simulation data for both subsonic and supersonic jets, but the acoustic radiation is severely under-predicted in the subsonic case. This thesis contributes to two aspects of these models. First, two new solution methods are developed that can be used to efficiently compute wavepackets and their acoustic radiation, reducing the computational cost of the model by more than an order of magnitude. The new techniques are spatial integration methods and constitute a well-posed, convergent alternative to the frequently used parabolized stability equations. Using concepts related to well-posed boundary conditions, the methods are formulated for general hyperbolic equations and thus have potential applications in many fields of physics and engineering. Second, the nonlinear and stochastic forcing of wavepackets is investigated with the goal of identifying and characterizing the missing dynamics responsible for the under-prediction of acoustic radiation by linear wavepacket models for subsonic jets. Specifically, we use ensembles of large-eddy-simulation flow and force data along with two data decomposition techniques to educe the actual nonlinear forcing experienced by wavepackets in a Mach 0.9 turbulent jet. Modes with high energy are extracted using proper orthogonal decomposition, while high gain modes are identified using a novel technique called empirical resolvent-mode decomposition. In contrast to the flow and acoustic fields, the forcing field is characterized by a lack of energetic coherent structures. Furthermore, the structures that do exist are largely uncorrelated with the acoustic field. Instead, the forces that most efficiently excite an acoustic response appear to take the form of random turbulent fluctuations, implying that direct feedback from nonlinear interactions amongst wavepackets is not an essential noise source mechanism. This suggests that the essential ingredients of sound generation in high Reynolds number jets are contained within the linearized Navier-Stokes operator rather than in the nonlinear forcing terms, a conclusion that has important implications for jet noise modeling.