The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

1. Astronomical photometry at wavelengths of 8.5, 10.5, and 11.6 µm. 2. Infrared emission from asteroids at wavelengths of 8.5, 10.5, and 11.6 µm

The purpose of this thesis is to present new observations of thermal-infrared radiation from asteroids. Stellar photometry was performed to provide standards for comparison with the asteroid data. The details of the photometry and the data reduction are discussed in Part 1. A system of standard stars is derived for wavelengths of 8.5, 10.5 and 11.6 µm and a new calibration is adopted. Sources of error are evaluated and comparisons are made with the data of other observers.

The observations and analysis of the thermal-emission observations of asteroids are presented in Part 2. Thermal-emission lightcurve and phase effect data are considered. Special color diagrams are introduced to display the observational data. These diagrams are free of any model-dependent assumptions and show that asteroids differ in their surface properties.

On the basis of photometric models, (4) Vesta is thought to have a bolometric Bond albedo of about 0.1, an emissivity greater than 0.7 and a true radius that is close to the model value of 300^(+50)_(-30)km. Model albedos and model radii are given for asteroids 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 15, 19, 20, 27, 39, 44, 68, 80, 324 and 674. The asteroid (324) Bamberga is extremely dark with a model (~bolometric Bond) albedo in the 0.01 - 0.02 range, which is thought to be the lowest albedo yet measured for any solar-system body. The crucial question about such low-albedo asteroids is their number and the distribution of their orbits.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

Multipole moments in general relativity and dynamical perturbations of black-hole magnetospheres

This thesis consists of two parts. In Part I, we develop a multipole moment formalism in general relativity and use it to analyze the motion and precession of compact bodies. More specifically, the generic, vacuum, dynamical gravitational field of the exterior universe in the vicinity of a freely moving body is expanded in positive powers of the distance r away from the body's spatial origin (i.e., in the distance r from its timelike-geodesic world line). The expansion coefficients, called "external multipole moments,'' are defined covariantly in terms of the Riemann curvature tensor and its spatial derivatives evaluated on the body's central world line. In a carefully chosen class of de Donder coordinates, the expansion of the external field involves only integral powers of r ; no logarithmic terms occur. The expansion is used to derive higher-order corrections to previously known laws of motion and precession for black holes and other bodies. The resulting laws of motion and precession are expressed in terms of couplings of the time derivatives of the body's quadrupole and octopole moments to the external moments, i.e., to the external curvature and its gradient.

In part II, we study the interaction of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) waves in a black-hole magnetosphere with the "dragging of inertial frames" effect of the hole's rotation - i.e., with the hole's "gravitomagnetic field." More specifically: we first rewrite the laws of perfect general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD) in 3+1 language in a general spacetime, in terms of quantities (magnetic field, flow velocity, ...) that would be measured by the ''fiducial observers” whose world lines are orthogonal to (arbitrarily chosen) hypersurfaces of constant time. We then specialize to a stationary spacetime and MHD flow with one arbitrary spatial symmetry (e.g., the stationary magnetosphere of a Kerr black hole); and for this spacetime we reduce the GRMHD equations to a set of algebraic equations. The general features of the resulting stationary, symmetric GRMHD magnetospheric solutions are discussed, including the Blandford-Znajek effect in which the gravitomagnetic field interacts with the magnetosphere to produce an outflowing jet. Then in a specific model spacetime with two spatial symmetries, which captures the key features of the Kerr geometry, we derive the GRMHD equations which govern weak, linealized perturbations of a stationary magnetosphere with outflowing jet. These perturbation equations are then Fourier analyzed in time t and in the symmetry coordinate x, and subsequently solved numerically. The numerical solutions describe the interaction of MHD waves with the gravitomagnetic field. It is found that, among other features, when an oscillatory external force is applied to the region of the magnetosphere where plasma (e⁺e^-) is being created, the magnetosphere responds especially strongly at a particular, resonant, driving frequency. The resonant frequency is that for which the perturbations appear to be stationary (time independent) in the common rest frame of the freshly created plasma and the rotating magnetic field lines. The magnetosphere of a rotating black hole, when buffeted by nonaxisymmetric magnetic fields anchored in a surrounding accretion disk, might exhibit an analogous resonance. If so then the hole's outflowing jet might be modulated at resonant frequencies ω=(m/2) Ω_H where m is an integer and Ω_H is the hole's angular velocity.

New measurements on the absolute cosmic ray ionization from sea level to 1540 kilometers altitude

An air filled ionization chamber has been constructed with a volume of 552 liters and a wall consisting of 12.7 mg/cm² of plastic wrapped over a rigid, lightweight aluminum frame. A calibration in absolute units, independent of previous Caltech ion chamber calibrations, was applied to a sealed Neher electrometer for use in this chamber. The new chamber was flown along with an older, argon filled, balloon type chamber in a C-135 aircraft from 1,000 to 40,000 feet altitude, and other measurements of sea level cosmic ray ionization were made, resulting in the value of 2.60 ± .03 ion pairs/cm³ sec atm) at sea level. The calibrations of the two instruments were found to agree within 1 percent, and the airplane data were consistent with previous balloon measurements in the upper atmosphere. Ionization due to radon gas in the atmosphere was investigated. Absolute ionization data in the lower atmosphere have been compared with results of other observers, and discrepancies have been discussed.

Data from a polar orbiting ion chamber on the OGO-II, IV spacecraft have been analyzed. The problem of radioactivity produced on the spacecraft during passes through high fluxes of trapped protons has been investigated, and some corrections determined. Quiet time ionization averages over the polar regions have been plotted as function of altitude, and an analytical fit is made to the data that gives a value of 10.4 ± 2.3 percent for the fractional part of the ionization at the top of the atmosphere due to splash albedo particles, although this result is shown to depend on an assumed angular distribution for the albedo particles. Comparisons with other albedo measurements are made. The data are shown to be consistent with balloon and interplanetary ionization measurements. The position of the cosmic ray knee is found to exhibit an altitude dependence, a North-South effect, and a small local time variation.