The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Legal dimensions of the Chinese experience in Los Angeles, 1860-1880

On October 24, 1871, a massacre of eighteen Chinese in Los Angeles brought the small southern California settlement into the national spotlight. Within a few days, news of this “night of horrors” was reported in newspapers across the country. This massacre has been cited in Asian American narratives as the first documented outbreak of ethnic violence against a Chinese community in the United States. This is ironic because Los Angeles’ small population has generally placed it on the periphery in historical studies of the California anti-Chinese movement. Because the massacre predated Los Angeles’ organized Chinese exclusion movements of the late 1870s, it has often been erroneously dismissed as an aberration in the history of the city.

The violence of 1871 was an outburst highlighting existing community tensions that would become part of public debate by decade’s close. The purpose of this study is to insert the massacre into a broader context of anti-Chinese sentiments, legal discrimination, and dehumanization in nineteenth century Los Angeles. While a second incident of widespread anti-Chinese violence never occurred, brutal attacks directed at Chinese small businessmen and others highlighted continued community conflict. Similarly, economic rivalries and concerns over Chinese prostitution that underlay the 1871 massacre were manifest in later campaigns of economic discrimination and vice suppression that sought to minimize Chinese influence within municipal limits. An analysis of the massacre in terms of anti-Chinese legal, social and economic strategies in nineteenth-century Los Angeles will elucidate these important continuities.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

Understanding planet formation through high precision photometry and spectroscopy

From studies of protoplanetary disks to extrasolar planets and planetary debris, we aim to understand the full evolution of a planetary system. Observational constraints from ground- and space-based instrumentation allows us to measure the properties of objects near and far and are central to developing this understanding. We present here three observational campaigns that, when combined with theoretical models, reveal characteristics of different stages and remnants of planet formation. The Kuiper Belt provides evidence of chemical and dynamical activity that reveals clues to its primordial environment and subsequent evolution. Large samples of this population can only be assembled at optical wavelengths, with thermal measurements at infrared and sub-mm wavelengths currently available for only the largest and closest bodies. We measure the size and shape of one particular object precisely here, in hopes of better understanding its unique dynamical history and layered composition.

Molecular organic chemistry is one of the most fundamental and widespread facets of the universe, and plays a key role in planet formation. A host of carbon-containing molecules vibrationally emit in the near-infrared when excited by warm gas, T~1000 K. The NIRSPEC instrument at the W.M. Keck Observatory is uniquely configured to study large ranges of this wavelength region at high spectral resolution. Using this facility we present studies of warm CO gas in protoplanetary disks, with a new code for precise excitation modeling. A parameterized suite of models demonstrates the abilities of the code and matches observational constraints such as line strength and shape. We use the models to probe various disk parameters as well, which are easily extensible to others with known disk emission spectra such as water, carbon dioxide, acetylene, and hydrogen cyanide.

Lastly, the existence of molecules in extrasolar planets can also be studied with NIRSPEC and reveals a great deal about the evolution of the protoplanetary gas. The species we observe in protoplanetary disks are also often present in exoplanet atmospheres, and are abundant in Earth's atmosphere as well. Thus, a sophisticated telluric removal code is necessary to analyze these high dynamic range, high-resolution spectra. We present observations of a hot Jupiter, revealing water in its atmosphere and demonstrating a new technique for exoplanet mass determination and atmospheric characterization. We will also be applying this atmospheric removal code to the aforementioned disk observations, to improve our data analysis and probe less abundant species. Guiding models using observations is the only way to develop an accurate understanding of the timescales and processes involved. The futures of the modeling and of the observations are bright, and the end goal of realizing a unified model of planet formation will require both theory and data, from a diverse collection of sources.

Violence in the Medieval Church before the First Crusade

The attitude of the medieval church towards violence before the First Crusade in 1095 underwent a significant institutional evolution, from the peaceful tradition of the New Testament and the Roman persecution, through the prelate-led military campaigns of the Carolingian period and the Peace of God era. It would be superficially easy to characterize this transformation as the pragmatic and entirely secular response of a growing power to the changing world. However, such a simplification does not fully do justice to the underlying theology. While church leaders from the 5th Century to the 11th had vastly different motivations and circumstances under which to develop their responses to a variety of violent activities, the teachings of Augustine of Hippo provided a unifying theme. Augustine’s just war theology, in establishing which conflicts are acceptable in the eyes of God, focused on determining whether a proper causa belli or basis for war exists, and then whether a legitimate authority declares and leads the war. Augustine masterfully integrated aspects of the Old and New Testaments to create a lasting and compelling case for his definition of justified violence. Although at different times and places his theology has been used to support a variety of different attitudes, the profound influence of his work on the medieval church’s evolving position on violence is clear.

Field and Laboratory Studies of Atmospheric Organic Aerosol

This thesis is the culmination of field and laboratory studies aimed at assessing processes that affect the composition and distribution of atmospheric organic aerosol. An emphasis is placed on measurements conducted using compact and high-resolution Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers (AMS). The first three chapters summarize results from aircraft campaigns designed to evaluate anthropogenic and biogenic impacts on marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of California. Subsequent chapters describe laboratory studies intended to evaluate gas and particle-phase mechanisms of organic aerosol oxidation.

The 2013 Nucleation in California Experiment (NiCE) was a campaign designed to study environments impacted by nucleated and/or freshly formed aerosol particles. Terrestrial biogenic aerosol with > 85% organic mass was observed to reside in the free troposphere above marine stratocumulus. This biogenic organic aerosol (BOA) originated from the Northwestern United States and was transported to the marine atmosphere during periodic cloud-clearing events. Spectra recorded by a cloud condensation nuclei counter demonstrated that BOA is CCN active. BOA enhancements at latitudes north of San Francisco, CA coincided with enhanced cloud water concentrations of organic species such as acetate and formate.

Airborne measurements conducted during the 2011 Eastern Pacific Emitted Aerosol Cloud Experiment (E-PEACE) were aimed at evaluating the contribution of ship emissions to the properties of marine aerosol and clouds off the coast of central California. In one study, analysis of organic aerosol mass spectra during periods of enhanced shipping activity yielded unique tracers indicative of cloud-processed ship emissions (m/z 42 and 99). The variation of their organic fraction (f₄₂ and f₉₉) was found to coincide with periods of heavy (f₄₂ > 0.15; f₉₉ > 0.04), moderate (0.05 < f₄₂ < 0.15; 0.01 < f₉₉ < 0.04), and negligible (f₄₂ < 0.05; f₉₉ < 0.01) ship influence. Application of these conditions to all measurements conducted during E-PEACE demonstrated that a large fraction of cloud droplet (72%) and dry aerosol mass (12%) sampled in the California coastal study region was heavily or moderately influenced by ship emissions. Another study investigated the chemical and physical evolution of a controlled organic plume emitted from the R/V Point Sur. Under sunny conditions, nucleated particles composed of oxidized organic compounds contributed nearly an order of magnitude more cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) than less oxidized particles formed under cloudy conditions. The processing time necessary for particles to become CCN active was short ( < 1 hr) compared to the time needed for particles to become hygroscopic at sub-saturated humidity ( > 4 hr).

Laboratory chamber experiments were also conducted to evaluate particle-phase processes influencing aerosol phase and composition. In one study, ammonium sulfate seed was coated with a layer of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from toluene oxidation followed by a layer of SOA from α-pinene oxidation. The system exhibited different evaporative properties than ammonium sulfate seed initially coated with α-pinene SOA followed by a layer of toluene SOA. This behavior is consistent with a shell-and-core model and suggests limited mixing among different SOA types. Another study investigated the reactive uptake of isoprene epoxy diols (IEPOX) onto non-acidified aerosol. It was demonstrated that particle acidity has limited influence on organic aerosol formation onto ammonium sulfate seed, and that the chemical system is limited by the availability of nucleophiles such as sulfate.

Flow tube experiments were conducted to examine the role of iron in the reactive uptake and chemical oxidation of glycolaldehyde. Aerosol particles doped with iron and hydrogen peroxide were mixed with gas-phase glycolaldehyde and photochemically aged in a custom-built flow reactor. Compared to particles free of iron, iron-doped aerosols significantly enhanced the oxygen to carbon (O/C) ratio of accumulated organic mass. The primary oxidation mechanism is suggested to be a combination of Fenton and photo-Fenton reactions which enhance particle-phase OH radical concentrations.