Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Earthquake geology of Myanmar

This thesis describes the active structures of Myanmar and its surrounding regions, and the earthquake geology of the major active structures. Such investigation is needed urgently for this rapidly developing country that has suffered from destructive earthquakes in its long history. To archive a better understanding of the regional active tectonics and the seismic potential in the future, we utilized a global digital elevation model and optical satellite imagery to describe geomorphologic evidence for the principal neotectonic features of the western half of the Southeast Asia mainland. Our investigation shows three distinct active structural systems that accommodate the oblique convergence between the Indian plate and Southeast Asia and the extrusion of Asian territory around the eastern syntaxis of the Himalayan mountain range. Each of these active deformation belts can be further separated into several neotectonic domains, in which structures show distinctive active behaviors from one to another.

In order to better understand the behaviors of active structures, we focused on the active characteristics of the right-lateral Sagaing fault and the oblique subducting northern Sunda megathrust in the second part of this thesis. The detailed geomorphic investigations along these two major plate-interface faults revealed the recent slip behavior of these structures, and plausible recurrence intervals of major seismic events. We also documented the ground deformation of the 2011 Tarlay earthquake in remote eastern Myanmar from remote sensing datasets and post-earthquake field investigations. The field observation and the remote sensing measurements of surface ruptures of the Tarlay earthquake are the first study of this kind in the Myanmar region.

I. A seismotectonic study of the Middle America Subduction Zone. II. Lithosphere and upper mantle structure of the Canadian Shield and Eastern North America

This thesis consists of two separate parts. Part I (Chapter 1) is concerned with seismotectonics of the Middle America subduction zone. In this chapter, stress distribution and Benioff zone geometry are investigated along almost 2000 km of this subduction zone, from the Rivera Fracture Zone in the north to Guatemala in the south. Particular emphasis is placed on the effects on stress distribution of two aseismic ridges, the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone, which subduct at seismic gaps. Stress distribution is determined by studying seismicity distribution, and by analysis of 190 focal mechanisms, both new and previously published, which are collected here. In addition, two recent large earthquakes that have occurred near the Tehuantepec Ridge and the Orozco Fracture Zone are discussed in more detail. A consistent stress release pattern is found along most of the Middle America subduction zone: thrust events at shallow depths, followed down-dip by an area of low seismic activity, followed by a zone of normal events at over 175 km from the trench and 60 km depth. The zone of low activity is interpreted as showing decoupling of the plates, and the zone of normal activity as showing the breakup of the descending plate. The portion of subducted lithosphere containing the Orozco Fracture Zone does not differ significantly, in Benioff zone geometry or in stress distribution, from adjoining segments. The Playa Azul earthquake of October 25, 1981, M_s=7.3, occurred in this area. Body and surface wave analysis of this event shows a simple source with a shallow thrust mechanism and gives M_o=1.3x10²⁷ dyne-cm. A stress drop of about 45 bars is calculated; this is slightly higher than that of other thrust events in this subduction zone. In the Tehuantepec Ridge area, only minor differences in stress distribution are seen relative to adjoining segments. For both ridges, the only major difference from adjoining areas is the infrequency or lack of occurrence of large interplate thrust events.

Part II involves upper mantle P wave structure studies, for the Canadian shield and eastern North America. In Chapter 2, the P wave structure of the Canadian shield is determined through forward waveform modeling of the phases P_nl, P, and PP. Effects of lateral heterogeneity are kept to a minimum by using earthquakes just outside the shield as sources, with propagation paths largely within the shield. Previous mantle structure studies have used recordings of P waves in the upper mantle triplication range of 15-30°; however, the lack of large earthquakes in the shield region makes compilation of a complete P wave dataset difficult. By using the phase PP, which undergoes triplications at 30-60°, much more information becomes available. The WKBJ technique is used to calculate synthetic seismograms for PP, and these records are modeled almost as well as the P. A new velocity model, designated S25, is proposed for the Canadian shield. This model contains a thick, high-Q, high-velocity lid to 165 km and a deep low-velocity zone. These features combine to produce seismograms that are markedly different from those generated by other shield structure models. The upper mantle discontinuities in S25 are placed at 405 and 660 km, with a simple linear gradient in velocity between them. Details of the shape of the discontinuities are not well constrained. Below 405 km, this model is not very different from many proposed P wave models for both shield and tectonic regions.

Chapter 3 looks in more detail at recordings of P_nl in eastern North America. First, seismograms from four eastern North American earthquakes are analyzed, and seismic moments for the events are calculated. These earthquakes are important in that they are among the largest to have occurred in eastern North America in the last thirty years, yet in some cases were not large enough to produce many good long-period teleseismic records. A simple layer-over-a-halfspace model is used for the initial modeling, and is found to provide an excellent fit for many features of the observed waveforms. The effects on P_nl of varying lid structure are then investigated. A thick lid with a positive gradient in velocity, such as that proposed for the Canadian shield in Chapter 2, will have a pronounced effect on the waveforms, beginning at distances of 800 or 900 km. P_nl records from the same eastern North American events are recalculated for several lid structure models, to survey what kinds of variations might be seen. For several records it is possible to see likely effects of lid structure in the data. However, the dataset is too sparse to make any general observations about variations in lid structure. This type of modeling is expected to be important in the future, as the analysis is extended to more recent eastern North American events, and as broadband instruments make more high-quality regional recordings available.