Probabilistic Imaging and Dynamic Modeling of Earthquake Source Processes

Investigation of large, destructive earthquakes is challenged by their infrequent occurrence and the remote nature of geophysical observations. This thesis sheds light on the source processes of large earthquakes from two perspectives: robust and quantitative observational constraints through Bayesian inference for earthquake source models, and physical insights on the interconnections of seismic and aseismic fault behavior from elastodynamic modeling of earthquake ruptures and aseismic processes.

To constrain the shallow deformation during megathrust events, we develop semi-analytical and numerical Bayesian approaches to explore the maximum resolution of the tsunami data, with a focus on incorporating the uncertainty in the forward modeling. These methodologies are then applied to invert for the coseismic seafloor displacement field in the 2011 Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake using near-field tsunami waveforms and for the coseismic fault slip models in the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake with complementary tsunami and geodetic observations. From posterior estimates of model parameters and their uncertainties, we are able to quantitatively constrain the near-trench profiles of seafloor displacement and fault slip. Similar characteristic patterns emerge during both events, featuring the peak of uplift near the edge of the accretionary wedge with a decay toward the trench axis, with implications for fault failure and tsunamigenic mechanisms of megathrust earthquakes.

To understand the behavior of earthquakes at the base of the seismogenic zone on continental strike-slip faults, we simulate the interactions of dynamic earthquake rupture, aseismic slip, and heterogeneity in rate-and-state fault models coupled with shear heating. Our study explains the long-standing enigma of seismic quiescence on major fault segments known to have hosted large earthquakes by deeper penetration of large earthquakes below the seismogenic zone, where mature faults have well-localized creeping extensions. This conclusion is supported by the simulated relationship between seismicity and large earthquakes as well as by observations from recent large events. We also use the modeling to connect the geodetic observables of fault locking with the behavior of seismicity in numerical models, investigating how a combination of interseismic geodetic and seismological estimates could constrain the locked-creeping transition of faults and potentially their co- and post-seismic behavior.

Generalized modal identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems

This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the dynamic characteristics of complicated engineering systems and structures from the measurements made during dynamic tests or natural excitations. Particular attention is given to the identification and modeling of the behavior of structural dynamic systems in the nonlinear hysteretic response regime. Once a model for the system has been identified, it is intended to use this model to assess the condition of the system and to predict the response to future excitations.

A new identification methodology based upon a generalization of the method of modal identification for multi-degree-of-freedom dynaimcal systems subjected to base motion is developed. The situation considered herein is that in which only the base input and the response of a small number of degrees-of-freedom of the system are measured. In this method, called the generalized modal identification method, the response is separated into "modes" which are analogous to those of a linear system. Both parametric and nonparametric models can be employed to extract the unknown nature, hysteretic or nonhysteretic, of the generalized restoring force for each mode.

In this study, a simple four-term nonparametric model is used first to provide a nonhysteretic estimate of the nonlinear stiffness and energy dissipation behavior. To extract the hysteretic nature of nonlinear systems, a two-parameter distributed element model is then employed. This model exploits the results of the nonparametric identification as an initial estimate for the model parameters. This approach greatly improves the convergence of the subsequent optimization process.

The capability of the new method is verified using simulated response data from a three-degree-of-freedom system. The new method is also applied to the analysis of response data obtained from the U.S.-Japan cooperative pseudo-dynamic test of a full-scale six-story steel-frame structure.

The new system identification method described has been found to be both accurate and computationally efficient. It is believed that it will provide a useful tool for the analysis of structural response data.

Some approximate solutions of dynamic problems in the linear theory of thin elastic shells

Some aspects of wave propagation in thin elastic shells are considered. The governing equations are derived by a method which makes their relationship to the exact equations of linear elasticity quite clear. Finite wave propagation speeds are ensured by the inclusion of the appropriate physical effects.

The problem of a constant pressure front moving with constant velocity along a semi-infinite circular cylindrical shell is studied. The behavior of the solution immediately under the leading wave is found, as well as the short time solution behind the characteristic wavefronts. The main long time disturbance is found to travel with the velocity of very long longitudinal waves in a bar and an expression for this part of the solution is given.

When a constant moment is applied to the lip of an open spherical shell, there is an interesting effect due to the focusing of the waves. This phenomenon is studied and an expression is derived for the wavefront behavior for the first passage of the leading wave and its first reflection.

For the two problems mentioned, the method used involves reducing the governing partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations by means of a Laplace transform in time. The information sought is then extracted by doing the appropriate asymptotic expansion with the Laplace variable as parameter.

Part 1: Longitudinal static and dynamic effects in semiconductor lasers. Part II: Spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked quantum well lasers

In the first part of this thesis a study of the effect of the longitudinal distribution of optical intensity and electron density on the static and dynamic behavior of semiconductor lasers is performed. A static model for above threshold operation of a single mode laser, consisting of multiple active and passive sections, is developed by calculating the longitudinal optical intensity distribution and electron density distribution in a self-consistent manner. Feedback from an index and gain Bragg grating is included, as well as feedback from discrete reflections at interfaces and facets. Longitudinal spatial holeburning is analyzed by including the dependence of the gain and the refractive index on the electron density. The mechanisms of spatial holeburning in quarter wave shifted DFB lasers are analyzed. A new laser structure with a uniform optical intensity distribution is introduced and an implementation is simulated, resulting in a large reduction of the longitudinal spatial holeburning effect.

A dynamic small-signal model is then developed by including the optical intensity and electron density distribution, as well as the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density. Expressions are derived for the intensity and frequency noise spectrum, the spontaneous emission rate into the lasing mode, the linewidth enhancement factor, and the AM and FM modulation response. Different chirp components are identified in the FM response, and a new adiabatic chirp component is discovered. This new adiabatic chirp component is caused by the nonuniform longitudinal distributions, and is found to dominate at low frequencies. Distributed feedback lasers with partial gain coupling are analyzed, and it is shown how the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density can result in an enhancement of the differential gain with an associated enhancement in modulation bandwidth and a reduction in chirp.

In the second part, spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked two-section multiple quantum well laser coupled to an external cavity are studied. Broad-band wavelength tuning using an external grating is demonstrated for the first time in passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers. A record tuning range of 26 nm is measured, with pulse widths of typically a few picosecond and time-bandwidth products of more than 10 times the transform limit. It is then demonstrated that these large time-bandwidth products are due to a strong linear upchirp, by performing pulse compression by a factor of 15 to a record pulse widths as low 320 fs.

A model for pulse propagation through a saturable medium with self-phase-modulation, due to the a-parameter, is developed for quantum well material, including the frequency dependence of the gain medium. This model is used to simulate two-section devices coupled to an external cavity. When no self-phase-modulation is present, it is found that the pulses are asymmetric with a sharper rising edge, that the pulse tails have an exponential behavior, and that the transform limit is 0.3. Inclusion of self-phase-modulation results in a linear upchirp imprinted on the pulse after each round-trip. This linear upchirp is due to a combination of self-phase-modulation in a gain section and absorption of the leading edge of the pulse in the saturable absorber.

Experiments in Neutrino Mass and Mixing: Part I - New Limits on Heavy Neutrino Emission in Nuclear Beta Decay. Part II - Fast Neutron Backgrounds for the San Onofre Neutrino Detector

In Part I of this thesis, a new magnetic spectrometer experiment which measured the β spectrum of ^(35)S is described. New limits on heavy neutrino emission in nuclear β decay were set, for a heavy neutrino mass range between 12 and 22 keV. In particular, this measurement rejects the hypothesis that a 17 keV neutrino is emitted, with sin^2 θ = 0.0085, at the 6δ statistical level. In addition, an auxiliary experiment was performed, in which an artificial kink was induced in the β spectrum by means of an absorber foil which masked a fraction of the source area. In this measurement, the sensitivity of the magnetic spectrometer to the spectral features of heavy neutrino emission was demonstrated.

In Part II, a measurement of the neutron spallation yield and multiplicity by the Cosmic-ray Underground Background Experiment is described. The production of fast neutrons by muons was investigated at an underground depth of 20 meters water equivalent, with a 200 liter detector filled with 0.09% Gd-loaded liquid scintillator. We measured a neutron production yield of (3.4 ± 0.7) x 10^(-5) neutrons per muon-g/cm^2, in agreement with other experiments. A single-to-double neutron multiplicity ratio of 4:1 was observed. In addition, stopped π^+ decays to µ^+ and then e^+ were observed as was the associated production of pions and neutrons, by the muon spallation interaction. It was seen that practically all of the π^+ produced by muons were also accompanied by at least one neutron. These measurements serve as the basis for neutron background estimates for the San Onofre neutrino detector.

Dynamic states in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection systems

A new geometry-independent state - a traveling-wave wall state - is proposed as the mechanism whereby which the experimentally observed wall-localized states in rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection systems preempt the bulk state at large rotation rates. Its properties are calculated for the illustrative case of free-slip top and bottom boundary conditions. At small rotation rates, this new wall state is found to disappear. A detailed study of the dynamics of the wall state and the bulk state in the transition region where this disappearance occurs is conducted using a Swift-Hohenberg model system. The Swift-Hohenberg model, with appropriate reflection-symmetry- breaking boundary conditions, is also shown to exhibit traveling-wave wall states, further demonstrating that traveling-wave wall states are a generic feature of nonequilibrium pattern-forming systems. A numerical code for the Swift-Hohenberg model in an annular geometry was written and used to investigate the dynamics of rotating Rayleigh-Bénard convection systems.

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

A high pressure xenon time projection chamber for double beta decay

This thesis describes the design, construction and performance of a high-pressure, xenon, gas time projection chamber (TPC) for the study of double beta decay in ^(136) Xe. The TPC when operating at 5 atm can accommodate 28 moles of 60% enriched ^(136) Xe. The TPC has operated as a detector at Caltech since 1986. It is capable of reconstructing a charged particle trajectory and can easily distinguish between different kinds of charged particles. A gas purification and xenon gas recovery system were developed. The electronics for the 338 channels of readout was developed along with a data acquistion system. Currently, the detector is being prepared at the University of Neuchatel for installation in the low background laboratory situated in the St. Gotthard tunnel, Switzerland. In one year of runtime the detector should be sensitive to a 0ν lifetime of the order of 10^(24) y, which corresponds to a neutrino mass in the range 0.3 to 3.3 eV.

Controlling wave propagation through nonlinear engineered granular systems

We study the fundamental dynamic behavior of a special class of ordered granular systems in order to design new, structured materials with unique physical properties. The dynamic properties of granular systems are dictated by the nonlinear, Hertzian, potential in compression and zero tensile strength resulting from the discrete material structure. Engineering the underlying particle arrangement of granular systems allows for unique dynamic properties, not observed in natural, disordered granular media. While extensive studies on 1D granular crystals have suggested their usefulness for a variety of engineering applications, considerably less attention has been given to higher-dimensional systems. The extension of these studies in higher dimensions could enable the discovery of richer physical phenomena not possible in 1D, such as spatial redirection and anisotropic energy trapping. We present experiments, numerical simulation (based on a discrete particle model), and in some cases theoretical predictions for several engineered granular systems, studying the effects of particle arrangement on the highly nonlinear transient wave propagation to develop means for controlling the wave propagation pathways. The first component of this thesis studies the stress wave propagation resulting from a localized impulsive loading for three different 2D particle lattice structures: square, centered square, and hexagonal granular crystals. By varying the lattice structure, we observe a wide range of properties for the propagating stress waves: quasi-1D solitary wave propagation, fully 2D wave propagation with tunable wave front shapes, and 2D pulsed wave propagation. Additionally the effects of weak disorder, inevitably present in real granular systems, are investigated. The second half of this thesis studies the solitary wave propagation through 2D and 3D ordered networks of granular chains, reducing the effective density compared to granular crystals by selectively placing wave guiding chains to control the acoustic wave transmission. The rapid wave front amplitude decay exhibited by these granular networks makes them highly attractive for impact mitigation applications. The agreement between experiments, numerical simulations, and applicable theoretical predictions validates the wave guiding capabilities of these engineered granular crystals and networks and opens a wide range of possibilities for the realization of increasingly complex granular material design.

Frictional properties of faults : from observation on the Longitudinal Valley Fault, Taiwan, to dynamic simulations

Faults can slip either aseismically or through episodic seismic ruptures, but we still do not understand the factors which determine the partitioning between these two modes of slip. This challenge can now be addressed thanks to the dense set of geodetic and seismological networks that have been deployed in various areas with active tectonics. The data from such networks, as well as modern remote sensing techniques, indeed allow documenting of the spatial and temporal variability of slip mode and give some insight. This is the approach taken in this study, which is focused on the Longitudinal Valley Fault (LVF) in Eastern Taiwan. This fault is particularly appropriate since the very fast slip rate (about 5 cm/yr) is accommodated by both seismic and aseismic slip. Deformation of anthropogenic features shows that aseismic creep accounts for a significant fraction of fault slip near the surface, but this fault also released energy seismically, since it has produced five M_w>6.8 earthquakes in 1951 and 2003. Moreover, owing to the thrust component of slip, the fault zone is exhumed which allows investigation of deformation mechanisms. In order to put constraint on the factors that control the mode of slip, we apply a multidisciplinary approach that combines modeling of geodetic observations, structural analysis and numerical simulation of the "seismic cycle". Analyzing a dense set of geodetic and seismological data across the Longitudinal Valley, including campaign-mode GPS, continuous GPS (cGPS), leveling, accelerometric, and InSAR data, we document the partitioning between seismic and aseismic slip on the fault. For the time period 1992 to 2011, we found that about 80-90% of slip on the LVF in the 0-26 km seismogenic depth range is actually aseismic. The clay-rich Lichi M\'elange is identified as the key factor promoting creep at shallow depth. Microstructural investigations show that deformation within the fault zone must have resulted from a combination of frictional sliding at grain boundaries, cataclasis and pressure solution creep. Numerical modeling of earthquake sequences have been performed to investigate the possibility of reproducing the results from the kinematic inversion of geodetic and seismological data on the LVF. We first investigate the different modeling strategy that was developed to explore the role and relative importance of different factors on the manner in which slip accumulates on faults. We compare the results of quasi dynamic simulations and fully dynamic ones, and we conclude that ignoring the transient wave-mediated stress transfers would be inappropriate. We therefore carry on fully dynamic simulations and succeed in qualitatively reproducing the wide range of observations for the southern segment of the LVF. We conclude that the spatio-temporal evolution of fault slip on the Longitudinal Valley Fault over 1997-2011 is consistent to first order with prediction from a simple model in which a velocity-weakening patch is embedded in a velocity-strengthening area.

The decay properties of the ψ(3770)

The decays of the ψ(3770) resonance to final states that do not contain charmed D mesons are measured for the first time. Using a sample of 9.3pb ^(-1) of e^+e^- annihilations at √s = 3.77 GeV, collected with the Mark III detector at SPEAR, we have measured the branching ratio for the decays ψ(3770) → J/ψπ^(+)π^(-) and γχ_j. These branching ratios together with the electronic widths of the ψ(3685) and ψ(3770) are used to determine the mixing angle between the 2^(3)S_1 and 1^(3)D_1 Charmonium states and are compared with a number of predictions. In addition, evidence is found for other non-DD hadronic final states, such as 3π, 4π, and 5π, as well as η2π, η4π, pp2π and pp3π.

Nonlinear dynamic transfer functions for certain retinal neuronal systems

The applicability of the white-noise method to the identification of a nonlinear system is investigated. Subsequently, the method is applied to certain vertebrate retinal neuronal systems and nonlinear, dynamic transfer functions are derived which describe quantitatively the information transformations starting with the light-pattern stimulus and culminating in the ganglion response which constitutes the visually-derived input to the brain. The retina of the catfish, Ictalurus punctatus, is used for the experiments.

The Wiener formulation of the white-noise theory is shown to be impractical and difficult to apply to a physical system. A different formulation based on crosscorrelation techniques is shown to be applicable to a wide range of physical systems provided certain considerations are taken into account. These considerations include the time-invariancy of the system, an optimum choice of the white-noise input bandwidth, nonlinearities that allow a representation in terms of a small number of characterizing kernels, the memory of the system and the temporal length of the characterizing experiment. Error analysis of the kernel estimates is made taking into account various sources of error such as noise at the input and output, bandwidth of white-noise input and the truncation of the gaussian by the apparatus.

Nonlinear transfer functions are obtained, as sets of kernels, for several neuronal systems: Light → Receptors, Light → Horizontal, Horizontal → Ganglion, Light → Ganglion and Light → ERG. The derived models can predict, with reasonable accuracy, the system response to any input. Comparison of model and physical system performance showed close agreement for a great number of tests, the most stringent of which is comparison of their responses to a white-noise input. Other tests include step and sine responses and power spectra.

Many functional traits are revealed by these models. Some are: (a) the receptor and horizontal cell systems are nearly linear (small signal) with certain "small" nonlinearities, and become faster (latency-wise and frequency-response-wise) at higher intensity levels, (b) all ganglion systems are nonlinear (half-wave rectification), (c) the receptive field center to ganglion system is slower (latency-wise and frequency-response-wise) than the periphery to ganglion system, (d) the lateral (eccentric) ganglion systems are just as fast (latency and frequency response) as the concentric ones, (e) (bipolar response) = (input from receptors) - (input from horizontal cell), (f) receptive field center and periphery exert an antagonistic influence on the ganglion response, (g) implications about the origin of ERG, and many others.

An analytical solution is obtained for the spatial distribution of potential in the S-space, which fits very well experimental data. Different synaptic mechanisms of excitation for the external and internal horizontal cells are implied.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Dynamic rupture simulation integrated with earthquake observations

Dynamic rupture simulations are unique in their contributions to the study of earthquake physics. The current rapid development of dynamic rupture simulations poses several new questions: Do the simulations reflect the real world? Do the simulations have predictive power? Which one should we believe when the simulations disagree? This thesis illustrates how integration with observations can help address these questions and reduce the effects of non-uniqueness of both dynamic rupture simulations and kinematic inversion problems. Dynamic rupture simulations with observational constraints can effectively identify non-physical features inferred from observations. Moreover, the integrative technique can also provide more physical insights into the mechanisms of earthquakes. This thesis demonstrates two examples of such kinds of integration: dynamic rupture simulations of the M_w 9.0 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake and of earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones:

(1) We develop simulations of the Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on a variety of observations and minimum assumptions of model parameters. The simulations provide realistic estimations of stress drop and fracture energy of the region and explain the physical mechanisms of high-frequency radiation in the deep region. We also find that the overridding subduction wedge contributes significantly to the up-dip rupture propagation and large final slip in the shallow region. Such findings are also applicable to other megathrust earthquakes.

(2) Damaged fault zones are usually found around natural faults, but their effects on earthquake ruptures have been largely unknown. We simulate earthquake ruptures in damaged fault zones with material properties constrained by seismic and geological observations. We show that reflected waves in fault zones are effective at generating pulse-like ruptures and head waves tend to accelerate and decelerate rupture speeds. These mechanisms are robust in natural fault zones with large attenuation and off-fault plasticity. Moreover, earthquakes in damaged fault zones can propagate at super-Rayleigh speeds that are unstable in homogeneous media. Supershear transitions in fault zones do not require large fault stresses. In the end, we present observations in the Big Bear region, where variability of rupture speeds of small earthquakes correlates with the laterally variable materials in a damaged fault zone.

Measurement of the neutron beta decay asymmetry using ultracold neutrons

The free neutron beta decay correlation A₀ between neutron polarization and electron emission direction provides the strongest constraint on the ratio λ = g_A/g_V of the Axial-vector to Vector coupling constants in Weak decay. In conjunction with the CKM Matrix element V_ud and the neutron lifetime τ_n, λ provides a test of Standard Model assumptions for the Weak interaction. Leading high-precision measurements of A₀ and τ_n in the 1995-2005 time period showed discrepancies with prior measurements and Standard Model predictions for the relationship between λ, τ_n, and V_ud. The UCNA experiment was developed to measure A₀ from decay of polarized ultracold neutrons (UCN), providing a complementary determination of λ with different systematic uncertainties from prior cold neutron beam experiments. This dissertation describes analysis of the dataset collected by UCNA in 2010, with emphasis on detector response calibrations and systematics. The UCNA measurement is placed in the context of the most recent τ_n results and cold neutron A₀ experiments.