Distributed Control and Optimization for Communication and Power Systems

We are at the cusp of a historic transformation of both communication system and electricity system. This creates challenges as well as opportunities for the study of networked systems. Problems of these systems typically involve a huge number of end points that require intelligent coordination in a distributed manner. In this thesis, we develop models, theories, and scalable distributed optimization and control algorithms to overcome these challenges.

This thesis focuses on two specific areas: multi-path TCP (Transmission Control Protocol) and electricity distribution system operation and control. Multi-path TCP (MP-TCP) is a TCP extension that allows a single data stream to be split across multiple paths. MP-TCP has the potential to greatly improve reliability as well as efficiency of communication devices. We propose a fluid model for a large class of MP-TCP algorithms and identify design criteria that guarantee the existence, uniqueness, and stability of system equilibrium. We clarify how algorithm parameters impact TCP-friendliness, responsiveness, and window oscillation and demonstrate an inevitable tradeoff among these properties. We discuss the implications of these properties on the behavior of existing algorithms and motivate a new algorithm Balia (balanced linked adaptation) which generalizes existing algorithms and strikes a good balance among TCP-friendliness, responsiveness, and window oscillation. We have implemented Balia in the Linux kernel. We use our prototype to compare the new proposed algorithm Balia with existing MP-TCP algorithms.

Our second focus is on designing computationally efficient algorithms for electricity distribution system operation and control. First, we develop efficient algorithms for feeder reconfiguration in distribution networks. The feeder reconfiguration problem chooses the on/off status of the switches in a distribution network in order to minimize a certain cost such as power loss. It is a mixed integer nonlinear program and hence hard to solve. We propose a heuristic algorithm that is based on the recently developed convex relaxation of the optimal power flow problem. The algorithm is efficient and can successfully computes an optimal configuration on all networks that we have tested. Moreover we prove that the algorithm solves the feeder reconfiguration problem optimally under certain conditions. We also propose a more efficient algorithm and it incurs a loss in optimality of less than 3% on the test networks.

Second, we develop efficient distributed algorithms that solve the optimal power flow (OPF) problem on distribution networks. The OPF problem determines a network operating point that minimizes a certain objective such as generation cost or power loss. Traditionally OPF is solved in a centralized manner. With increasing penetration of volatile renewable energy resources in distribution systems, we need faster and distributed solutions for real-time feedback control. This is difficult because power flow equations are nonlinear and kirchhoff's law is global. We propose solutions for both balanced and unbalanced radial distribution networks. They exploit recent results that suggest solving for a globally optimal solution of OPF over a radial network through a second-order cone program (SOCP) or semi-definite program (SDP) relaxation. Our distributed algorithms are based on the alternating direction method of multiplier (ADMM), but unlike standard ADMM-based distributed OPF algorithms that require solving optimization subproblems using iterative methods, the proposed solutions exploit the problem structure that greatly reduce the computation time. Specifically, for balanced networks, our decomposition allows us to derive closed form solutions for these subproblems and it speeds up the convergence by 1000x times in simulations. For unbalanced networks, the subproblems reduce to either closed form solutions or eigenvalue problems whose size remains constant as the network scales up and computation time is reduced by 100x compared with iterative methods.

Generalized modal identification of linear and nonlinear dynamic systems

This dissertation is concerned with the problem of determining the dynamic characteristics of complicated engineering systems and structures from the measurements made during dynamic tests or natural excitations. Particular attention is given to the identification and modeling of the behavior of structural dynamic systems in the nonlinear hysteretic response regime. Once a model for the system has been identified, it is intended to use this model to assess the condition of the system and to predict the response to future excitations.

A new identification methodology based upon a generalization of the method of modal identification for multi-degree-of-freedom dynaimcal systems subjected to base motion is developed. The situation considered herein is that in which only the base input and the response of a small number of degrees-of-freedom of the system are measured. In this method, called the generalized modal identification method, the response is separated into "modes" which are analogous to those of a linear system. Both parametric and nonparametric models can be employed to extract the unknown nature, hysteretic or nonhysteretic, of the generalized restoring force for each mode.

In this study, a simple four-term nonparametric model is used first to provide a nonhysteretic estimate of the nonlinear stiffness and energy dissipation behavior. To extract the hysteretic nature of nonlinear systems, a two-parameter distributed element model is then employed. This model exploits the results of the nonparametric identification as an initial estimate for the model parameters. This approach greatly improves the convergence of the subsequent optimization process.

The capability of the new method is verified using simulated response data from a three-degree-of-freedom system. The new method is also applied to the analysis of response data obtained from the U.S.-Japan cooperative pseudo-dynamic test of a full-scale six-story steel-frame structure.

The new system identification method described has been found to be both accurate and computationally efficient. It is believed that it will provide a useful tool for the analysis of structural response data.

Determination of source finiteness and depth of large earthquakes

In this thesis, a method to retrieve the source finiteness, depth of faulting, and the mechanisms of large earthquakes from long-period surface waves is developed and applied to several recent large events.

In Chapter 1, source finiteness parameters of eleven large earthquakes were determined from long-period Rayleigh waves recorded at IDA and GDSN stations. The basic data set is the seismic spectra of periods from 150 to 300 sec. Two simple models of source finiteness are studied. The first model is a point source with finite duration. In the determination of the duration or source-process times, we used Furumoto's phase method and a linear inversion method, in which we simultaneously inverted the spectra and determined the source-process time that minimizes the error in the inversion. These two methods yielded consistent results. The second model is the finite fault model. Source finiteness of large shallow earthquakes with rupture on a fault plane with a large aspect ratio was modeled with the source-finiteness function introduced by Ben-Menahem. The spectra were inverted to find the extent and direction of the rupture of the earthquake that minimize the error in the inversion. This method is applied to the 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia, 1979 Colombia-Ecuador, 1983 Akita-Oki, Japan, 1985 Valparaiso, Chile, and 1985 Michoacan, Mexico earthquakes. The method yielded results consistent with the rupture extent inferred from the aftershock area of these earthquakes.

In Chapter 2, the depths and source mechanisms of nine large shallow earthquakes were determined. We inverted the data set of complex source spectra for a moment tensor (linear) or a double couple (nonlinear). By solving a least-squares problem, we obtained the centroid depth or the extent of the distributed source for each earthquake. The depths and source mechanisms of large shallow earthquakes determined from long-period Rayleigh waves depend on the models of source finiteness, wave propagation, and the excitation. We tested various models of the source finiteness, Q, the group velocity, and the excitation in the determination of earthquake depths.

The depth estimates obtained using the Q model of Dziewonski and Steim (1982) and the excitation functions computed for the average ocean model of Regan and Anderson (1984) are considered most reasonable. Dziewonski and Steim's Q model represents a good global average of Q determined over a period range of the Rayleigh waves used in this study. Since most of the earthquakes studied here occurred in subduction zones Regan and Anderson's average ocean model is considered most appropriate.

Our depth estimates are in general consistent with the Harvard CMT solutions. The centroid depths and their 90 % confidence intervals (numbers in the parentheses) determined by the Student's t test are: Colombia-Ecuador earthquake (12 December 1979), d = 11 km, (9, 24) km; Santa Cruz Is. earthquake (17 July 1980), d = 36 km, (18, 46) km; Samoa earthquake (1 September 1981), d = 15 km, (9, 26) km; Playa Azul, Mexico earthquake (25 October 1981), d = 41 km, (28, 49) km; El Salvador earthquake (19 June 1982), d = 49 km, (41, 55) km; New Ireland earthquake (18 March 1983), d = 75 km, (72, 79) km; Chagos Bank earthquake (30 November 1983), d = 31 km, (16, 41) km; Valparaiso, Chile earthquake (3 March 1985), d = 44 km, (15, 54) km; Michoacan, Mexico earthquake (19 September 1985), d = 24 km, (12, 34) km.

In Chapter 3, the vertical extent of faulting of the 1983 Akita-Oki, and 1977 Sumbawa, Indonesia earthquakes are determined from fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves. Using fundamental Rayleigh waves, the depths are determined from the moment tensor inversion and fault inversion. The observed overtone Rayleigh waves are compared to the synthetic overtone seismograms to estimate the depth of faulting of these earthquakes. The depths obtained from overtone Rayleigh waves are consistent with the depths determined from fundamental Rayleigh waves for the two earthquakes. Appendix B gives the observed seismograms of fundamental and overtone Rayleigh waves for eleven large earthquakes.

Distributed optimization in power networks and general multi-agent systems

The dissertation studies the general area of complex networked systems that consist of interconnected and active heterogeneous components and usually operate in uncertain environments and with incomplete information. Problems associated with those systems are typically large-scale and computationally intractable, yet they are also very well-structured and have features that can be exploited by appropriate modeling and computational methods. The goal of this thesis is to develop foundational theories and tools to exploit those structures that can lead to computationally-efficient and distributed solutions, and apply them to improve systems operations and architecture.

Specifically, the thesis focuses on two concrete areas. The first one is to design distributed rules to manage distributed energy resources in the power network. The power network is undergoing a fundamental transformation. The future smart grid, especially on the distribution system, will be a large-scale network of distributed energy resources (DERs), each introducing random and rapid fluctuations in power supply, demand, voltage and frequency. These DERs provide a tremendous opportunity for sustainability, efficiency, and power reliability. However, there are daunting technical challenges in managing these DERs and optimizing their operation. The focus of this dissertation is to develop scalable, distributed, and real-time control and optimization to achieve system-wide efficiency, reliability, and robustness for the future power grid. In particular, we will present how to explore the power network structure to design efficient and distributed market and algorithms for the energy management. We will also show how to connect the algorithms with physical dynamics and existing control mechanisms for real-time control in power networks.

The second focus is to develop distributed optimization rules for general multi-agent engineering systems. A central goal in multiagent systems is to design local control laws for the individual agents to ensure that the emergent global behavior is desirable with respect to the given system level objective. Ideally, a system designer seeks to satisfy this goal while conditioning each agent’s control on the least amount of information possible. Our work focused on achieving this goal using the framework of game theory. In particular, we derived a systematic methodology for designing local agent objective functions that guarantees (i) an equivalence between the resulting game-theoretic equilibria and the system level design objective and (ii) that the resulting game possesses an inherent structure that can be exploited for distributed learning, e.g., potential games. The control design can then be completed by applying any distributed learning algorithm that guarantees convergence to the game-theoretic equilibrium. One main advantage of this game theoretic approach is that it provides a hierarchical decomposition between the decomposition of the systemic objective (game design) and the specific local decision rules (distributed learning algorithms). This decomposition provides the system designer with tremendous flexibility to meet the design objectives and constraints inherent in a broad class of multiagent systems. Furthermore, in many settings the resulting controllers will be inherently robust to a host of uncertainties including asynchronous clock rates, delays in information, and component failures.

On erasure coding for distributed storage and streaming communications

The work presented in this thesis revolves around erasure correction coding, as applied to distributed data storage and real-time streaming communications.

First, we examine the problem of allocating a given storage budget over a set of nodes for maximum reliability. The objective is to find an allocation of the budget that maximizes the probability of successful recovery by a data collector accessing a random subset of the nodes. This optimization problem is challenging in general because of its combinatorial nature, despite its simple formulation. We study several variations of the problem, assuming different allocation models and access models, and determine the optimal allocation and the optimal symmetric allocation (in which all nonempty nodes store the same amount of data) for a variety of cases. Although the optimal allocation can have nonintuitive structure and can be difficult to find in general, our results suggest that, as a simple heuristic, reliable storage can be achieved by spreading the budget maximally over all nodes when the budget is large, and spreading it minimally over a few nodes when it is small. Coding would therefore be beneficial in the former case, while uncoded replication would suffice in the latter case.

Second, we study how distributed storage allocations affect the recovery delay in a mobile setting. Specifically, two recovery delay optimization problems are considered for a network of mobile storage nodes: the maximization of the probability of successful recovery by a given deadline, and the minimization of the expected recovery delay. We show that the first problem is closely related to the earlier allocation problem, and solve the second problem completely for the case of symmetric allocations. It turns out that the optimal allocations for the two problems can be quite different. In a simulation study, we evaluated the performance of a simple data dissemination and storage protocol for mobile delay-tolerant networks, and observed that the choice of allocation can have a significant impact on the recovery delay under a variety of scenarios.

Third, we consider a real-time streaming system where messages created at regular time intervals at a source are encoded for transmission to a receiver over a packet erasure link; the receiver must subsequently decode each message within a given delay from its creation time. For erasure models containing a limited number of erasures per coding window, per sliding window, and containing erasure bursts whose maximum length is sufficiently short or long, we show that a time-invariant intrasession code asymptotically achieves the maximum message size among all codes that allow decoding under all admissible erasure patterns. For the bursty erasure model, we also show that diagonally interleaved codes derived from specific systematic block codes are asymptotically optimal over all codes in certain cases. We also study an i.i.d. erasure model in which each transmitted packet is erased independently with the same probability; the objective is to maximize the decoding probability for a given message size. We derive an upper bound on the decoding probability for any time-invariant code, and show that the gap between this bound and the performance of a family of time-invariant intrasession codes is small when the message size and packet erasure probability are small. In a simulation study, these codes performed well against a family of random time-invariant convolutional codes under a number of scenarios.

Finally, we consider the joint problems of routing and caching for named data networking. We propose a backpressure-based policy that employs virtual interest packets to make routing and caching decisions. In a packet-level simulation, the proposed policy outperformed a basic protocol that combines shortest-path routing with least-recently-used (LRU) cache replacement.

A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Effects of self energy of the ions on the double layer structure and properties at the dielectric interface

Although numerous theoretical efforts have been put forth, a systematic, unified and predictive theoretical framework that is able to capture all the essential physics of the interfacial behaviors of ions, such as the Hofmeister series effect, Jones-Ray effect and the salt effect on the bubble coalescence remain an outstanding challenge. The most common approach to treating electrostatic interactions in the presence of salt ions is the Poisson-Boltzmann (PB) theory. However, there are many systems for which the PB theory fails to offer even a qualitative explanation of the behavior, especially for ions distributed in the vicinity of an interface with dielectric contrast between the two media (like the water-vapor/oil interface). A key factor missing in the PB theory is the self energy of the ion.

In this thesis, we develop a self-consistent theory that treats the electrostatic self energy (including both the short-range Born solvation energy and the long-range image charge interactions), the nonelectrostatic contribution of the self energy, the ion-ion correlation and the screening effect systematically in a single framework. By assuming a finite charge spread of the ion instead of using the point-charge model, the self energy obtained by our theory is free of the divergence problems and gives a continuous self energy across the interface. This continuous feature allows ions on the water side and the vapor/oil side of the interface to be treated in a unified framework. The theory involves a minimum set of parameters of the ion, such as the valency, radius, polarizability of the ions, and the dielectric constants of the medium, that are both intrinsic and readily available. The general theory is first applied to study the thermodynamic property of the bulk electrolyte solution, which shows good agreement with the experiment result for predicting the activity coefficient and osmotic coefficient.

Next, we address the effect of local Born solvation energy on the bulk thermodynamics and interfacial properties of electrolyte solution mixtures. We show that difference in the solvation energy between the cations and anions naturally gives rise to local charge separation near the interface, and a finite Galvani potential between two coexisting solutions. The miscibility of the mixture can either increases or decreases depending on the competition between the solvation energy and translation entropy of the ions. The interfacial tension shows a non-monotonic dependence on the salt concentration: it increases linearly with the salt concentration at higher concentrations, and decreases approximately as the square root of the salt concentration for dilute solutions, which is in agreement with the Jones-Ray effect observed in experiment.

Next, we investigate the image effects on the double layer structure and interfacial properties near a single charged plate. We show that the image charge repulsion creates a depletion boundary layer that cannot be captured by a regular perturbation approach. The correct weak-coupling theory must include the self-energy of the ion due to the image charge interaction. The image force qualitatively alters the double layer structure and properties, and gives rise to many non-PB effects, such as nonmonotonic dependence of the surface energy on concentration and charge inversion. The image charge effect is then studied for electrolyte solutions between two plates. For two neutral plates, we show that depletion of the salt ions by the image charge repulsion results in short-range attractive and long-range repulsive forces. If cations and anions are of different valency, the asymmetric depletion leads to the formation of an induced electrical double layer. For two charged plates, the competition between the surface charge and the image charge effect can give rise to like- charge attraction.

Then, we study the inhomogeneous screening effect near the dielectric interface due to the anisotropic and nonuniform ion distribution. We show that the double layer structure and interfacial properties is drastically affected by the inhomogeneous screening if the bulk Debye screening length is comparable or smaller than the Bjerrum length. The width of the depletion layer is characterized by the Bjerrum length, independent of the salt concentration. We predict that the negative adsorption of ions at the interface increases linearly with the salt concentration, which cannot be captured by either the bulk screening approximation or the WKB approximation. For asymmetric salt, the inhomogeneous screening enhances the charge separation in the induced double layer and significantly increases the value of the surface potential.

Finally, to account for the ion specificity, we study the self energy of a single ion across the dielectric interface. The ion is considered to be polarizable: its charge distribution can be self-adjusted to the local dielectric environment to minimize the self energy. Using intrinsic parameters of the ions, such as the valency, radius, and polarizability, we predict the specific ion effect on the interfacial affinity of halogen anions at the water/air interface, and the strong adsorption of hydrophobic ions at the water/oil interface, in agreement with experiments and atomistic simulations.

The theory developed in this work represents the most systematic theoretical technique for weak-coupling electrolytes. We expect the theory to be more useful for studying a wide range of structural and dynamic properties in physicochemical, colloidal, soft-matter and biophysical systems.

Micromechanical damage and fracture in elastomeric polymers

This thesis aims at a simple one-parameter macroscopic model of distributed damage and fracture of polymers that is amenable to a straightforward and efficient numerical implementation. The failure model is motivated by post-mortem fractographic observations of void nucleation, growth and coalescence in polyurea stretched to failure, and accounts for the specific fracture energy per unit area attendant to rupture of the material.

Furthermore, it is shown that the macroscopic model can be rigorously derived, in the sense of optimal scaling, from a micromechanical model of chain elasticity and failure regularized by means of fractional strain-gradient elasticity. Optimal scaling laws that supply a link between the single parameter of the macroscopic model, namely the critical energy-release rate of the material, and micromechanical parameters pertaining to the elasticity and strength of the polymer chains, and to the strain-gradient elasticity regularization, are derived. Based on optimal scaling laws, it is shown how the critical energy-release rate of specific materials can be determined from test data. In addition, the scope and fidelity of the model is demonstrated by means of an example of application, namely Taylor-impact experiments of polyurea rods. Hereby, optimal transportation meshfree approximation schemes using maximum-entropy interpolation functions are employed.

Finally, a different crazing model using full derivatives of the deformation gradient and a core cut-off is presented, along with a numerical non-local regularization model. The numerical model takes into account higher-order deformation gradients in a finite element framework. It is shown how the introduction of non-locality into the model stabilizes the effect of strain localization to small volumes in materials undergoing softening. From an investigation of craze formation in the limit of large deformations, convergence studies verifying scaling properties of both local- and non-local energy contributions are presented.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Approximate theory for the flow through a cascade of cambered airfoils

An approximate theory for steady irrotational flow through a cascade of thin cambered airfoils is developed. Isolated thin airfoils have only slight camber is most applications, and the well known methods that replace the source and vorticity distributions of the curved camber line by similar distributions on the straight chord line are adequate. In cascades, however, the camber is usually appreciable, and significant errors are introduced if the vorticity and source distributions on the camber line are approximated by the same distribution on the chord line.

The calculation of the flow field becomes very clumsy in practice if the vorticity and source distributions are not confined to a straight line. A new method is proposed and investigated; in this method, at each point on the camber line, the vorticity and sources are assumed to be distributed along a straight line tangent to the camber line at that point, and corrections are determined to account for the deviation of the actual camber line from the tangent line. Hence, the basic calculation for the cambered airfoils is reduced to the simpler calculation of the straight line airfoils, with the equivalent straight line airfoils changing from point to point.

The results of the approximate method are compared with numerical solutions for cambers as high as 25 per cent of the chord. The leaving angles of flow are predicted quite well, even at this high value of the camber. The present method also gives the functional relationship between the exit angle and the other parameters such as airfoil shape and cascade geometry.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Toward Understanding Astrophysical Phenomena

Fast radio bursts (FRBs), a novel type of radio pulse, whose physics is not yet understood at all. Only a handful of FRBs had been detected when we started this project. Taking account of the scant observations, we put physical constraints on FRBs. We excluded proposals of a galactic origin for their extraordinarily high dispersion measures (DM), in particular stellar coronas and HII regions. Therefore our work supports an extragalactic origin for FRBs. We show that the resolved scattering tail of FRB 110220 is unlikely to be due to propagation through the intergalactic plasma. Instead the scattering is probably caused by the interstellar medium in the FRB's host galaxy, and indicates that this burst sits in the central region of that galaxy. Pulse durations of order $\ms$ constrain source sizes of FRBs implying enormous brightness temperatures and thus coherent emission. Electric fields near FRBs at cosmological distances would be so strong that they could accelerate free electrons from rest to relativistic energies in a single wave period. When we worked on FRBs, it was unclear whether they were genuine astronomical signals as distinct from `perytons', clearly terrestrial radio bursts, sharing some common properties with FRBs. Recently, in April 2015, astronomers discovered that perytons were emitted by microwave ovens. Radio chirps similar to FRBs were emitted when their doors opened while they were still heating. Evidence for the astronomical nature of FRBs has strengthened since our paper was published. Some bursts have been found to show linear and circular polarizations and Faraday rotation of the linear polarization has also been detected. I hope to resume working on FRBs in the near future. But after we completed our FRB paper, I decided to pause this project because of the lack of observational constraints.

The pulsar triple system, J0733+1715, has its orbital parameters fitted to high accuracy owing to the precise timing of the central $\ms$ pulsar. The two orbits are highly hierarchical, namely $P_{\mathrm{orb,1}}\ll P_{\mathrm{orb,2}}$, where 1 and 2 label the inner and outer white dwarf (WD) companions respectively. Moreover, their orbital planes almost coincide, providing a unique opportunity to study secular interaction associated purely with eccentricity beyond the solar system. Secular interaction only involves effect averaged over many orbits. Thus each companion can be represented by an elliptical wire with its mass distributed inversely proportional to its local orbital speed. Generally there exists a mutual torque, which vanishes only when their apsidal lines are parallel or anti-parallel. To maintain either mode, the eccentricity ratio, $e_1/e_2$, must be of the proper value, so that both apsidal lines precess together. For J0733+1715, $e_1\ll e_2$ for the parallel mode, while $e_1\gg e_2$ for the anti-parallel one. We show that the former precesses $\sim 10$ times slower than the latter. Currently the system is dominated by the parallel mode. Although only a little anti-parallel mode survives, both eccentricities especially $e_1$ oscillate on $\sim 10^3\yr$ timescale. Detectable changes would occur within $\sim 1\yr$. We demonstrate that the anti-parallel mode gets damped $\sim 10^4$ times faster than its parallel brother by any dissipative process diminishing $e_1$. If it is the tidal damping in the inner WD, we proceed to estimate its tidal quantity parameter ($Q$) to be $\sim 10^6$, which was poorly constrained by observations. However, tidal damping may also happen during the preceding low-mass X-ray binary (LMXB) phase or hydrogen thermal nuclear flashes. But, in both cases, the inner companion fills its Roche lobe and probably suffers mass/angular momentum loss, which might cause $e_1$ to grow rather than decay.

Several pairs of solar system satellites occupy mean motion resonances (MMRs). We divide these into two groups according to their proximity to exact resonance. Proximity is measured by the existence of a separatrix in phase space. MMRs between Io-Europa, Europa-Ganymede and Enceladus-Dione are too distant from exact resonance for a separatrix to appear. A separatrix is present only in the phase spaces of the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs and their resonant arguments are the only ones to exhibit substantial librations. When a separatrix is present, tidal damping of eccentricity or inclination excites overstable librations that can lead to passage through resonance on the damping timescale. However, after investigation, we conclude that the librations in the Mimas-Tethys and Titan-Hyperion MMRs are fossils and do not result from overstability.

Rubble piles are common in the solar system. Monolithic elements touch their neighbors in small localized areas. Voids occupy a significant fraction of the volume. In a fluid-free environment, heat cannot conduct through voids; only radiation can transfer energy across them. We model the effective thermal conductivity of a rubble pile and show that it is proportional the square root of the pressure, $P$, for $P\leq \epsy^3\mu$ where $\epsy$ is the material's yield strain and $\mu$ its shear modulus. Our model provides an excellent fit to the depth dependence of the thermal conductivity in the top $140\,\mathrm{cm}$ of the lunar regolith. It also offers an explanation for the low thermal inertias of rocky asteroids and icy satellites. Lastly, we discuss how rubble piles slow down the cooling of small bodies such as asteroids.

Electromagnetic (EM) follow-up observations of gravitational wave (GW) events will help shed light on the nature of the sources, and more can be learned if the EM follow-ups can start as soon as the GW event becomes observable. In this paper, we propose a computationally efficient time-domain algorithm capable of detecting gravitational waves (GWs) from coalescing binaries of compact objects with nearly zero time delay. In case when the signal is strong enough, our algorithm also has the flexibility to trigger EM observation {\it before} the merger. The key to the efficiency of our algorithm arises from the use of chains of so-called Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filters, which filter time-series data recursively. Computational cost is further reduced by a template interpolation technique that requires filtering to be done only for a much coarser template bank than otherwise required to sufficiently recover optimal signal-to-noise ratio. Towards future detectors with sensitivity extending to lower frequencies, our algorithm's computational cost is shown to increase rather insignificantly compared to the conventional time-domain correlation method. Moreover, at latencies of less than hundreds to thousands of seconds, this method is expected to be computationally more efficient than the straightforward frequency-domain method.

Neutron-neutron scattering parameters from the ^3He(d,t)2p and ^3H(d,^3He)2n reactions

The energy spectra of tritons and Helium-3 nuclei from the reactions ³He(d,t)2p, ³H(d,³He)2n, ³He(d,³He)pn, and ³H(d,t)pn were measured between 6° and 20° at a bombarding energy of 10.9 MeV. An upper limit of 5 μb/sr. was obtained for producing a bound di-neutron at 6° and 7.5°. The ³He(d,t)2p and ³H(d,³He)2n data, together with previous measurements at higher energies, have been used to investigate whether one can unambiguously extract information on the two-nucleon system from these three-body final state reactions. As an aid to these theoretical investigations, Born approximation calculations were made employing realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials and an antisymmetrized final state wave function for the five-particle system. These calculations reproduce many of the features observed in the experimental data and indicate that the role of exchange processes cannot be ignored. The results show that previous attempts to obtain information on the neutron-neutron scattering length from the ³H(d,³He)2n reaction may have seriously overestimated the precision that could be attained.