A theoretical and empirical study of addiction

Consumption of addictive substances poses a challenge to economic models of rational, forward-looking agents. This dissertation presents a theoretical and empirical examination of consumption of addictive goods.

The theoretical model draws on evidence from psychology and neurobiology to improve on the standard assumptions used in intertemporal consumption studies. I model agents who may misperceive the severity of the future consequences from consuming addictive substances and allow for an agent's environment to shape her preferences in a systematic way suggested by numerous studies that have found craving to be induced by the presence of environmental cues associated with past substance use. The behavior of agents in this behavioral model of addiction can mimic the pattern of quitting and relapsing that is prevalent among addictive substance users.

Chapter 3 presents an empirical analysis of the Becker and Murphy (1988) model of rational addiction using data on grocery store sales of cigarettes. This essay empirically tests the model's predictions concerning consumption responses to future and past price changes as well as the prediction that the response to an anticipated price change differs from the response to an unanticipated price change. In addition, I consider the consumption effects of three institutional changes that occur during the time period 1996 through 1999.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.