An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

A Model For Residential Adoption of Photovoltaic Systems

The rapid rise in the residential photo voltaic (PV) adoptions in the past half decade has created a need in the electricity industry for a widely-accessible model that estimates PV adoption based on a combination of different business and policy decisions. This work analyzes historical adoption patterns and finds fiscal savings to be the single most important factor in PV adoption, with significantly greater predictive power compared to all other socioeconomic factors including income and education. We can create an application available on Google App Engine (GAE) based on our findings that allows all stakeholders including policymakers, power system researchers and regulators to study the complex and coupled relationship between PV adoption, utility economics and grid sustainability. The application allows users to experiment with different customer demographics, tier structures and subsidies, hence allowing them to tailor the application to the geographic region they are studying. This study then demonstrates the different type of analyses possible with the application by studying the relative impact of different policies regarding tier structures, fixed charges and PV prices on PV adoption.