Essays in behavioral and neuro-economics

This thesis examines foundational questions in behavioral economics—also called psychology and economics—and the neural foundations of varied sources of utility. We have three primary aims: First, to provide the field of behavioral economics with psychological theories of behavior that are derived from neuroscience and to use those theories to identify novel evidence for behavioral biases. Second, we provide neural and micro foundations of behavioral preferences that give rise to well-documented empirical phenomena in behavioral economics. Finally, we show how a deep understanding of the neural foundations of these behavioral preferences can feed back into our theories of social preferences and reference-dependent utility.

The first chapter focuses on classical conditioning and its application in identifying the psychological underpinnings of a pricing phenomenon. We return to classical conditioning again in the third chapter where we use fMRI to identify varied sources of utility—here, reference dependent versus direct utility—and cross-validate our interpretation with a conditioning experiment. The second chapter engages social preferences and, more broadly, causative utility (wherein the decision-maker derives utility from making or avoiding particular choices).

Analysis of a transcriptional network involving PU.1, Notch, and Gata3 in the lymphomyeloid lineage decision during early T-cell development

Hematopoiesis is a well-established system used to study developmental choices amongst cells with multiple lineage potentials, as well as the transcription factor network interactions that drive these developmental paths. Multipotent progenitors travel from the bone marrow to the thymus where T-cell development is initiated and these early T-cell precursors retain lineage plasticity even after initiating a T-cell program. The development of these early cells is driven by Notch signaling and the combinatorial expression of many transcription factors, several of which are also involved in the development of other cell lineages. The ETS family transcription factor PU.1 is involved in the development of progenitor, myeloid, and lymphoid cells, and can divert progenitor T-cells from the T-lineage to a myeloid lineage. This diversion of early T-cells by PU.1 can be blocked by Notch signaling. The PU.1 and Notch interaction creates a switch wherein PU.1 in the presence of Notch promotes T-cell identity and PU.1 in the absence of Notch signaling promotes a myeloid identity. Here we characterized an early T-cell cell line, Scid.adh.2c2, as a good model system for studying the myeloid vs. lymphoid developmental choice dependent on PU.1 and Notch signaling. We then used the Scid.adh.2c2 system to identify mechanisms mediating PU.1 and Notch signaling interactions during early T-cell development. We show that the mechanism by which Notch signaling is protecting pro-T cells is neither degradation nor modification of the PU.1 protein. Instead we give evidence that Notch signaling is blocking the PU.1-driven inhibition of a key set of T-regulatory genes including Myb, Tcf7, and Gata3. We show that the protection of Gata3 from PU.1-mediated inhibition, by Notch signaling and Myb, is important for retaining a T-lineage identity. We also discuss a PU.1-driven mechanism involving E-protein inhibition that leads to the inhibition of Notch target genes. This is mechanism may be used as a lockdown mechanism in pro-T-cells that have made the decision to divert to the myeloid pathway.

Essays on cooperation and reciprocity

This dissertation comprises three essays that use theory-based experiments to gain understanding of how cooperation and efficiency is affected by certain variables and institutions in different types of strategic interactions prevalent in our society.

Chapter 2 analyzes indefinite horizon two-person dynamic favor exchange games with private information in the laboratory. Using a novel experimental design to implement a dynamic game with a stochastic jump signal process, this study provides insights into a relation where cooperation is without immediate reciprocity. The primary finding is that favor provision under these conditions is considerably less than under the most efficient equilibrium. Also, individuals do not engage in exact score-keeping of net favors, rather, the time since the last favor was provided affects decisions to stop or restart providing favors.

Evidence from experiments in Cournot duopolies is presented in Chapter 3 where players indulge in a form of pre-play communication, termed as revision phase, before playing the one-shot game. During this revision phase individuals announce their tentative quantities, which are publicly observed, and revisions are costless. The payoffs are determined only by the quantities selected at the end under real time revision, whereas in a Poisson revision game, opportunities to revise arrive according to a synchronous Poisson process and the tentative quantity corresponding to the last revision opportunity is implemented. Contrasting results emerge. While real time revision of quantities results in choices that are more competitive than the static Cournot-Nash, significantly lower quantities are implemented in the Poisson revision games. This shows that partial cooperation can be sustained even when individuals interact only once.

Chapter 4 investigates the effect of varying the message space in a public good game with pre-play communication where player endowments are private information. We find that neither binary communication nor a larger finite numerical message space results in any efficiency gain relative to the situation without any form of communication. Payoffs and public good provision are higher only when participants are provided with a discussion period through unrestricted text chat.

Neuronal mechanism of state control in Drosophila melanogaster

The changes in internal states, such as fear, hunger and sleep affect behavioral responses in animals. In most of the cases, these state-dependent influences are “pleiotropic”: one state affects multiple sensory modalities and behaviors; “scalable”: the strengths and choices of such modulations differ depending on the imminence of demands; and “persistent”: once the state is switched on the effects last even after the internal demands are off. These prominent features of state-control enable animals to adjust their behavioral responses depending on their internal demands. Here, we studied the neuronal mechanisms of state-controls by investigating energy-deprived state (hunger state) and social-deprived state of fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster, as prototypic models. To approach these questions, we developed two novel methods: a genetically based method to map sites of neuromodulation in the brain and optogenetic tools in Drosophila.

These methods, and genetic perturbations, reveal that the effect of hunger to alter behavioral sensitivity to gustatory cues is mediate by two distinct neuromodulatory pathways. The neuropeptide F (NPF) – dopamine (DA) pathway increases sugar sensitivity under mild starvation, while the adipokinetic hormone (AKH)- short neuropeptide F (sNPF) pathway decreases bitter sensitivity under severe starvation. These two pathways are recruited under different levels of energy demands without any cross interaction. Effects of both of the pathways are mediated by modulation of the gustatory sensory neurons, which reinforce the concept that sensory neurons constitute an important locus for state-dependent control of behaviors. Our data suggests that multiple independent neuromodulatory pathways are underlying pleiotropic and scalable effects of the hunger state.

In addition, using optogenetic tool, we show that the neural control of male courtship song can be separated into probabilistic/biasing, and deterministic/command-like components. The former, but not the latter, neurons are subject to functional modulation by social experience, supporting the idea that they constitute a locus of state-dependent influence. Interestingly, moreover, brief activation of the former, but not the latter, neurons trigger persistent behavioral response for more than 10 min. Altogether, these findings and new tools described in this dissertation offer new entry points for future researchers to understand the neuronal mechanism of state control.

Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Value Estimation and Comparison in Multi-Attribute Choice

The following work explores the processes individuals utilize when making multi-attribute choices. With the exception of extremely simple or familiar choices, most decisions we face can be classified as multi-attribute choices. In order to evaluate and make choices in such an environment, we must be able to estimate and weight the particular attributes of an option. Hence, better understanding the mechanisms involved in this process is an important step for economists and psychologists. For example, when choosing between two meals that differ in taste and nutrition, what are the mechanisms that allow us to estimate and then weight attributes when constructing value? Furthermore, how can these mechanisms be influenced by variables such as attention or common physiological states, like hunger?

In order to investigate these and similar questions, we use a combination of choice and attentional data, where the attentional data was collected by recording eye movements as individuals made decisions. Chapter 1 designs and tests a neuroeconomic model of multi-attribute choice that makes predictions about choices, response time, and how these variables are correlated with attention. Chapter 2 applies the ideas in this model to intertemporal decision-making, and finds that attention causally affects discount rates. Chapter 3 explores how hunger, a common physiological state, alters the mechanisms we utilize as we make simple decisions about foods.

Magnetic field and pressure effects in a saturated gas laser amplifier

Theoretical and experimental studies of a gas laser amplifier are presented, assuming the amplifier is operating with a saturating optical frequency signal. The analysis is primarily concerned with the effects of the gas pressure and the presence of an axial magnetic field on the characteristics of the amplifying medium. Semiclassical radiation theory is used, along with a density matrix description of the atomic medium which relates the motion of single atoms to the macroscopic observables. A two-level description of the atom, using phenomenological source rates and decay rates, forms the basis of our analysis of the gas laser medium. Pressure effects are taken into account to a large extent through suitable choices of decay rate parameters.

Two methods for calculating the induced polarization of the atomic medium are used. The first method utilizes a perturbation expansion which is valid for signal intensities which barely reach saturation strength, and it is quite general in applicability. The second method is valid for arbitrarily strong signals, but it yields tractable solutions only for zero magnetic field or for axial magnetic fields large enough such that the Zeeman splitting is much larger than the power broadened homogeneous linewidth of the laser transition. The effects of pressure broadening of the homogeneous spectral linewidth are included in both the weak-signal and strong-signal theories; however the effects of Zeeman sublevel-mixing collisions are taken into account only in the weak-signal theory.

The behavior of a He-Ne gas laser amplifier in the presence of an axial magnetic field has been studied experimentally by measuring gain and Faraday rotation of linearly polarized resonant laser signals for various values of input signal intensity, and by measuring nonlinearity - induced anisotropy for elliptically polarized resonant laser signals of various input intensities. Two high-gain transitions in the 3.39-μ region were used for study: a J = 1 to J = 2 (3s₂ → 3p₄) transition and a J = 1 to J = 1 (3s₂ → 3p₂) transition. The input signals were tuned to the centers of their respective resonant gain lines.

The experimental results agree quite well with corresponding theoretical expressions which have been developed to include the nonlinear effects of saturation strength signals. The experimental results clearly show saturation of Faraday rotation, and for the J = 1 t o J = 1 transition a Faraday rotation reversal and a traveling wave gain dip are seen for small values of axial magnetic field. The nonlinearity induced anisotropy shows a marked dependence on the gas pressure in the amplifier tube for the J = 1 to J = 2 transition; this dependence agrees with the predictions of the general perturbational or weak signal theory when allowances are made for the effects of Zeeman sublevel-mixing collisions. The results provide a method for measuring the upper (neon 3s₂) level quadrupole moment decay rate, the dipole moment decay rates for the 3s₂ → 3p₄ and 3s₂ → 3p₂ transitions, and the effects of various types of collision processes on these decay rates.

I. The 3.7 Å crystal structure of horse heart ferricytochrome C. II. The application of the Karle-Hauptman tangent formula to protein phasing

I. The 3.7 Å Crystal Structure of Horse Heart Ferricytochrome C.

The crystal structure of horse heart ferricytochrome c has been determined to a resolution of 3.7 Å using the multiple isomorphous replacement technique. Two isomorphous derivatives were used in the analysis, leading to a map with a mean figure of merit of 0.458. The quality of the resulting map was extremely high, even though the derivative data did not appear to be of high quality.

Although it was impossible to fit the known amino acid sequence to the calculated structure in an unambiguous way, many important features of the molecule could still be determined from the 3.7 Å electron density map. Among these was the fact that cytochrome c contains little or no α-helix. The polypeptide chain appears to be wound about the heme group in such a way as to form a loosely packed hydrophobic core in the molecule.

The heme group is located in a cleft on the molecule with one edge exposed to the solvent. The fifth coordinating ligand is His 18 and the sixth coordinating ligand is probably neither His 26 nor His 33.

The high resolution analysis of cytochrome c is now in progress and should be completed within the next year.

II. The Application of the Karle-Hauptman Tangent Formula to Protein Phasing.

The Karle-Hauptman tangent formula has been shown to be applicable to the refinement of previously determined protein phases. Tests were made with both the cytochrome c data from Part I and a theoretical structure based on the myoglobin molecule. The refinement process was found to be highly dependent upon the manner in which the tangent formula was applied. Iterative procedures did not work well, at least at low resolution.

The tangent formula worked very well in selecting the true phase from the two possible phase choices resulting from a single isomorphous replacement phase analysis. The only restriction on this application is that the heavy atoms form a non-centric cluster in the unit cell.

Pages 156 through 284 in this Thesis consist of previously published papers relating to the above two sections. References to these papers can be found on page 155.