Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Four essays on the empirical analysis of political ideology

This thesis examines four distinct facets and methods for understanding political ideology, and so it includes four distinct chapters with only moderate connections between them. Chapter 2 examines how reactions to emotional stimuli vary with political opinion, and how the stimuli can produce changes in an individuals political preferences. Chapter 3 examines the connection between self-reported fear and item nonresponse on surveys. Chapter 4 examines the connection between political and moral consistency with low-dimensional ideology, and Chapter 5 develops a technique for estimating ideal points and salience in a low-dimensional ideological space.

On erasure coding for distributed storage and streaming communications

The work presented in this thesis revolves around erasure correction coding, as applied to distributed data storage and real-time streaming communications.

First, we examine the problem of allocating a given storage budget over a set of nodes for maximum reliability. The objective is to find an allocation of the budget that maximizes the probability of successful recovery by a data collector accessing a random subset of the nodes. This optimization problem is challenging in general because of its combinatorial nature, despite its simple formulation. We study several variations of the problem, assuming different allocation models and access models, and determine the optimal allocation and the optimal symmetric allocation (in which all nonempty nodes store the same amount of data) for a variety of cases. Although the optimal allocation can have nonintuitive structure and can be difficult to find in general, our results suggest that, as a simple heuristic, reliable storage can be achieved by spreading the budget maximally over all nodes when the budget is large, and spreading it minimally over a few nodes when it is small. Coding would therefore be beneficial in the former case, while uncoded replication would suffice in the latter case.

Second, we study how distributed storage allocations affect the recovery delay in a mobile setting. Specifically, two recovery delay optimization problems are considered for a network of mobile storage nodes: the maximization of the probability of successful recovery by a given deadline, and the minimization of the expected recovery delay. We show that the first problem is closely related to the earlier allocation problem, and solve the second problem completely for the case of symmetric allocations. It turns out that the optimal allocations for the two problems can be quite different. In a simulation study, we evaluated the performance of a simple data dissemination and storage protocol for mobile delay-tolerant networks, and observed that the choice of allocation can have a significant impact on the recovery delay under a variety of scenarios.

Third, we consider a real-time streaming system where messages created at regular time intervals at a source are encoded for transmission to a receiver over a packet erasure link; the receiver must subsequently decode each message within a given delay from its creation time. For erasure models containing a limited number of erasures per coding window, per sliding window, and containing erasure bursts whose maximum length is sufficiently short or long, we show that a time-invariant intrasession code asymptotically achieves the maximum message size among all codes that allow decoding under all admissible erasure patterns. For the bursty erasure model, we also show that diagonally interleaved codes derived from specific systematic block codes are asymptotically optimal over all codes in certain cases. We also study an i.i.d. erasure model in which each transmitted packet is erased independently with the same probability; the objective is to maximize the decoding probability for a given message size. We derive an upper bound on the decoding probability for any time-invariant code, and show that the gap between this bound and the performance of a family of time-invariant intrasession codes is small when the message size and packet erasure probability are small. In a simulation study, these codes performed well against a family of random time-invariant convolutional codes under a number of scenarios.

Finally, we consider the joint problems of routing and caching for named data networking. We propose a backpressure-based policy that employs virtual interest packets to make routing and caching decisions. In a packet-level simulation, the proposed policy outperformed a basic protocol that combines shortest-path routing with least-recently-used (LRU) cache replacement.

Geometric quantization and foliation reduction

A standard question in the study of geometric quantization is whether symplectic reduction interacts nicely with the quantized theory, and in particular whether “quantization commutes with reduction.” Guillemin and Sternberg first proposed this question, and answered it in the affirmative for the case of a free action of a compact Lie group on a compact Kähler manifold. Subsequent work has focused mainly on extending their proof to non-free actions and non-Kähler manifolds. For realistic physical examples, however, it is desirable to have a proof which also applies to non-compact symplectic manifolds.

In this thesis we give a proof of the quantization-reduction problem for general symplectic manifolds. This is accomplished by working in a particular wavefunction representation, associated with a polarization that is in some sense compatible with reduction. While the polarized sections described by Guillemin and Sternberg are nonzero on a dense subset of the Kähler manifold, the ones considered here are distributional, having support only on regions of the phase space associated with certain quantized, or “admissible”, values of momentum.

We first propose a reduction procedure for the prequantum geometric structures that “covers” symplectic reduction, and demonstrate how both symplectic and prequantum reduction can be viewed as examples of foliation reduction. Consistency of prequantum reduction imposes the above-mentioned admissibility conditions on the quantized momenta, which can be seen as analogues of the Bohr-Wilson-Sommerfeld conditions for completely integrable systems.

We then describe our reduction-compatible polarization, and demonstrate a one-to-one correspondence between polarized sections on the unreduced and reduced spaces.

Finally, we describe a factorization of the reduced prequantum bundle, suggested by the structure of the underlying reduced symplectic manifold. This in turn induces a factorization of the space of polarized sections that agrees with its usual decomposition by irreducible representations, and so proves that quantization and reduction do indeed commute in this context.

A significant omission from the proof is the construction of an inner product on the space of polarized sections, and a discussion of its behavior under reduction. In the concluding chapter of the thesis, we suggest some ideas for future work in this direction.

I. Application of multi-Regge theory to production processes. II. High energy model for proton-proton scattering

This dissertation consists of two parts. The first part presents an explicit procedure for applying multi-Regge theory to production processes. As an illustrative example, the case of three body final states is developed in detail, both with respect to kinematics and multi-Regge dynamics. Next, the experimental consistency of the multi-Regge hypothesis is tested in a specific high energy reaction; the hypothesis is shown to provide a good qualitative fit to the data. In addition, the results demonstrate a severe suppression of double Pomeranchon exchange, and show the coupling of two "Reggeons" to an external particle to be strongly damped as the particle's mass increases. Finally, with the use of two body Regge parameters, order of magnitude estimates of the multi-Regge cross section for various reactions are given.

The second part presents a diffraction model for high energy proton-proton scattering. This model developed by Chou and Yang assumes high energy elastic scattering results from absorption of the incident wave into the many available inelastic channels, with the absorption proportional to the amount of interpenetrating hadronic matter. The assumption that the hadronic matter distribution is proportional to the charge distribution relates the scattering amplitude for pp scattering to the proton form factor. The Chou-Yang model with the empirical proton form factor as input is then applied to calculate a high energy, fixed momentum transfer limit for the scattering cross section, This limiting cross section exhibits the same "dip" or "break" structure indicated in present experiments, but falls significantly below them in magnitude. Finally, possible spin dependence is introduced through a weak spin-orbit type term which gives rather good agreement with pp polarization data.

Studies of ambient organic and inorganic aerosol in Southern California

The negative impacts of ambient aerosol particles, or particulate matter (PM), on human health and climate are well recognized. However, owing to the complexity of aerosol particle formation and chemical evolution, emissions control strategies remain difficult to develop in a cost effective manner. In this work, three studies are presented to address several key issues currently stymieing California's efforts to continue improving its air quality.

Gas-phase organic mass (GPOM) and CO emission factors are used in conjunction with measured enhancements in oxygenated organic aerosol (OOA) relative to CO to quantify the significant lack of closure between expected and observed organic aerosol concentrations attributable to fossil-fuel emissions. Two possible conclusions emerge from the analysis to yield consistency with the ambient organic data: (1) vehicular emissions are not a dominant source of anthropogenic fossil SOA in the Los Angeles Basin, or (2) the ambient SOA mass yields used to determine the SOA formation potential of vehicular emissions are substantially higher than those derived from laboratory chamber studies. Additional laboratory chamber studies confirm that, owing to vapor-phase wall loss, the SOA mass yields currently used in virtually all 3D chemical transport models are biased low by as much as a factor of 4. Furthermore, predictions from the Statistical Oxidation Model suggest that this bias could be as high as a factor of 8 if the influence of the chamber walls could be removed entirely.

Once vapor-phase wall loss has been accounted for in a new suite of laboratory chamber experiments, the SOA parameterizations within atmospheric chemical transport models should also be updated. To address the numerical challenges of implementing the next generation of SOA models in atmospheric chemical transport models, a novel mathematical framework, termed the Moment Method, is designed and presented. Assessment of the Moment Method strengths and weaknesses provide valuable insight that can guide future development of SOA modules for atmospheric CTMs.

Finally, regional inorganic aerosol formation and evolution is investigated via detailed comparison of predictions from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ version 4.7.1) model against a suite of airborne and ground-based meteorological measurements, gas- and aerosol-phase inorganic measurements, and black carbon (BC) measurements over Southern California during the CalNex field campaign in May/June 2010. Results suggests that continuing to target sulfur emissions with the hopes of reducing ambient PM concentrations may not the most effective strategy for Southern California. Instead, targeting dairy emissions is likely to be an effective strategy for substantially reducing ammonium nitrate concentrations in the eastern part of the Los Angeles Basin.

Measurement of the galactic cosmic ray antiproton flux from 0.25 gev to 3.11 gev with the isotope matter antimatter experiment (imax)

The intensities and relative abundances of galactic cosmic ray protons and antiprotons have been measured with the Isotope Matter Antimatter Experiment (IMAX), a balloon-borne magnet spectrometer. The IMAX payload had a successful flight from Lynn Lake, Manitoba, Canada on July 16, 1992. Particles detected by IMAX were identified by mass and charge via the Cherenkov-Rigidity and TOP-Rigidity techniques, with measured rms mass resolution ≤0.2 amu for Z=1 particles.

Cosmic ray antiprotons are of interest because they can be produced by the interactions of high energy protons and heavier nuclei with the interstellar medium as well as by more exotic sources. Previous cosmic ray antiproton experiments have reported an excess of antiprotons over that expected solely from cosmic ray interactions.

Analysis of the flight data has yielded 124405 protons and 3 antiprotons in the energy range 0.19-0.97 GeV at the instrument, 140617 protons and 8 antiprotons in the energy range 0.97-2.58 GeV, and 22524 protons and 5 antiprotons in the energy range 2.58-3.08 GeV. These measurements are a statistical improvement over previous antiproton measurements, and they demonstrate improved separation of antiprotons from the more abundant fluxes of protons, electrons, and other cosmic ray species.

When these results are corrected for instrumental and atmospheric background and losses, the ratios at the top of the atmosphere are p/p=3.21(+3.49, -1.97)x10^(-5) in the energy range 0.25-1.00 GeV, p/p=5.38(+3.48, -2.45) x10^(-5) in the energy range 1.00-2.61 GeV, and p/p=2.05(+1.79, -1.15) x10^(-4) in the energy range 2.61-3.11 GeV. The corresponding antiproton intensities, also corrected to the top of the atmosphere, are 2.3(+2.5, -1.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), 2.1(+1.4, -1.0) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1), and 4.3(+3.7, -2.4) x10^(-2) (m^2 s sr GeV)^(-1) for the same energy ranges.

The IMAX antiproton fluxes and antiproton/proton ratios are compared with recent Standard Leaky Box Model (SLBM) calculations of the cosmic ray antiproton abundance. According to this model, cosmic ray antiprotons are secondary cosmic rays arising solely from the interaction of high energy cosmic rays with the interstellar medium. The effects of solar modulation of protons and antiprotons are also calculated, showing that the antiproton/proton ratio can vary by as much as an order of magnitude over the solar cycle. When solar modulation is taken into account, the IMAX antiproton measurements are found to be consistent with the most recent calculations of the SLBM. No evidence is found in the IMAX data for excess antiprotons arising from the decay of galactic dark matter, which had been suggested as an interpretation of earlier measurements. Furthermore, the consistency of the current results with the SLBM calculations suggests that the mean antiproton lifetime is at least as large as the cosmic ray storage time in the galaxy (~10^7 yr, based on measurements of cosmic ray ^(10)Be). Recent measurements by two other experiments are consistent with this interpretation of the IMAX antiproton results.

Oxygen isotope ratios in coexisting minerals of regionally metamorphosed rocks

The O¹⁸/O¹⁶ ratios of coexisting minerals from a number of regionally metamorphosed rocks have been measured, using a bromine pentafluoride extraction-technique. Listed in order of their increasing tendency to concentrate O¹⁸, the minerals analyzed are magnetite, ilmenite, chlorite, biotite, garnet, hornblende, kyanite, muscovite, feldspar, and quartz. The only anomalous sequence detected occurs in a xenolith of schist, in which quartz, muscovite, biotite, and ilmenite, but not garnet, have undergone isotopic exchange with surrounding trondjemite.

With few exceptions, quartz-magnetite and quartz-ilmenite fractionations decrease with increasing metamorphic grade determined by mineral paragenesis and spatial distribution. This consistency does not apply to quartz-magnetite and quartz-ilmenite fractionations obtained from rocks in which petrographic evidence of retrogradation is present.

Whereas measured isotopic fractionations among quartz, garnet, ilmenite, and magnetite are approximately related to metamorphic grade, fractionations between these minerals and biotite or muscovite show poor correlation with grade. Variations in muscovite-biotite fractionations are relatively small. These observations are interpreted to mean that muscovite and biotite are affected by retrograde re-equilibration to a greater extent than the anhydrous minerals analyzed.

Measured quartz-ilmenite fractionations range from 12 permil in the biotite zone of central Vermont to 6.5 permil in the sillimanite-orthoclase zone of southeastern Connecticut. Analyses of natural assemblages from the kyanite and sillimanite zones suggest that equilibrium quartz-ilmenite fractionations are approximately 8 percent smaller than corresponding quartz-magnetite fractionations. Employing the quartz-magnetite geothermometer calibrated by O'Neil and Clayton (1964), a temperature of 560°C was obtained for kyanite-bearing schists from Addison County, Vermont. Extending the calibration to quartz-ilmenite fractionations, a temperature of 600°C was obtained for kyanite-schists from Shoshone County, Idaho. At these temperatures kyanite is stable only at pressures exceeding 11 kbars (Bell, 1963), corresponding to lithostatic loads of over 40 km.

Essays in Behavioral Decision Theory

This thesis studies decision making under uncertainty and how economic agents respond to information. The classic model of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating is often at odds with empirical and experimental results; people exhibit systematic biases in information processing and often exhibit aversion to ambiguity. The aim of this work is to develop simple models that capture observed biases and study their economic implications.

In the first chapter I present an axiomatic model of cognitive dissonance, in which an agent's response to information explicitly depends upon past actions. I introduce novel behavioral axioms and derive a representation in which beliefs are directionally updated. The agent twists the information and overweights states in which his past actions provide a higher payoff. I then characterize two special cases of the representation. In the first case, the agent distorts the likelihood ratio of two states by a function of the utility values of the previous action in those states. In the second case, the agent's posterior beliefs are a convex combination of the Bayesian belief and the one which maximizes the conditional value of the previous action. Within the second case a unique parameter captures the agent's sensitivity to dissonance, and I characterize a way to compare sensitivity to dissonance between individuals. Lastly, I develop several simple applications and show that cognitive dissonance contributes to the equity premium and price volatility, asymmetric reaction to news, and belief polarization.

The second chapter characterizes a decision maker with sticky beliefs. That is, a decision maker who does not update enough in response to information, where enough means as a Bayesian decision maker would. This chapter provides axiomatic foundations for sticky beliefs by weakening the standard axioms of dynamic consistency and consequentialism. I derive a representation in which updated beliefs are a convex combination of the prior and the Bayesian posterior. A unique parameter captures the weight on the prior and is interpreted as the agent's measure of belief stickiness or conservatism bias. This parameter is endogenously identified from preferences and is easily elicited from experimental data.

The third chapter deals with updating in the face of ambiguity, using the framework of Gilboa and Schmeidler. There is no consensus on the correct way way to update a set of priors. Current methods either do not allow a decision maker to make an inference about her priors or require an extreme level of inference. In this chapter I propose and axiomatize a general model of updating a set of priors. A decision maker who updates her beliefs in accordance with the model can be thought of as one that chooses a threshold that is used to determine whether a prior is plausible, given some observation. She retains the plausible priors and applies Bayes' rule. This model includes generalized Bayesian updating and maximum likelihood updating as special cases.

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.