An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Sequence-function relationships in E. coli transcriptional regulation

Understanding how transcriptional regulatory sequence maps to regulatory function remains a difficult problem in regulatory biology. Given a particular DNA sequence for a bacterial promoter region, we would like to be able to say which transcription factors bind there, how strongly they bind, and whether they interact with each other and/or RNA polymerase, with the ultimate objective of integrating knowledge of these parameters into a prediction of gene expression levels. The theoretical framework of statistical thermodynamics provides a useful framework for doing so, enabling us to predict how gene expression levels depend on transcription factor binding energies and concentrations. We used thermodynamic models, coupled with models of the sequence-dependent binding energies of transcription factors and RNAP, to construct a genotype to phenotype map for the level of repression exhibited by the lac promoter, and tested it experimentally using a set of promoter variants from E. coli strains isolated from different natural environments. For this work, we sought to ``reverse engineer'' naturally occurring promoter sequences to understand how variations in promoter sequence affects gene expression. The natural inverse of this approach is to ``forward engineer'' promoter sequences to obtain targeted levels of gene expression. We used a high precision model of RNAP-DNA sequence dependent binding energy, coupled with a thermodynamic model relating binding energy to gene expression, to predictively design and verify a suite of synthetic E. coli promoters whose expression varied over nearly three orders of magnitude.

However, although thermodynamic models enable predictions of mean levels of gene expression, it has become evident that cell-to-cell variability or ``noise'' in gene expression can also play a biologically important role. In order to address this aspect of gene regulation, we developed models based on the chemical master equation framework and used them to explore the noise properties of a number of common E. coli regulatory motifs; these properties included the dependence of the noise on parameters such as transcription factor binding strength and copy number. We then performed experiments in which these parameters were systematically varied and measured the level of variability using mRNA FISH. The results showed a clear dependence of the noise on these parameters, in accord with model predictions.

Finally, one shortcoming of the preceding modeling frameworks is that their applicability is largely limited to systems that are already well-characterized, such as the lac promoter. Motivated by this fact, we used a high throughput promoter mutagenesis assay called Sort-Seq to explore the completely uncharacterized transcriptional regulatory DNA of the E. coli mechanosensitive channel of large conductance (MscL). We identified several candidate transcription factor binding sites, and work is continuing to identify the associated proteins.

Oxygen relationships in intermittent sand filtration of wastewaters

A model for some of the many physical-chemical and biological processes in intermittent sand filtration of wastewaters is described and an expression for oxygen transfer is formulated.

The model assumes that aerobic bacterial activity within the sand or soil matrix is limited, mostly by oxygen deficiency, while the surface is ponded with wastewater. Atmospheric oxygen reenters into the soil after infiltration ends. Aerobic activity is resumed, but the extent of penetration of oxygen is limited and some depths may be always anaerobic. These assumptions lead to the conclusion that the percolate shows large variations with respect to the concentration of certain contaminants, with some portions showing little change in a specific contaminant. Analyses of soil moisture in field studies and of effluent from laboratory sand columns substantiated the model.

The oxygen content of the system at sufficiently long times after addition of wastes can be described by a quasi-steady-state diffusion equation including a term for an oxygen sink. Measurements of oxygen content during laboratory and field studies show that the oxygen profile changes only slightly up to two days after the quasi-steady state is attained.

Results of these hypotheses and experimental verification can be applied in the operation of existing facilities and in the interpretation of data from pilot plant-studies.