Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Geometric integration applied to moving mesh methods and degenerate Lagrangians

Moving mesh methods (also called r-adaptive methods) are space-adaptive strategies used for the numerical simulation of time-dependent partial differential equations. These methods keep the total number of mesh points fixed during the simulation, but redistribute them over time to follow the areas where a higher mesh point density is required. There are a very limited number of moving mesh methods designed for solving field-theoretic partial differential equations, and the numerical analysis of the resulting schemes is challenging. In this thesis we present two ways to construct r-adaptive variational and multisymplectic integrators for (1+1)-dimensional Lagrangian field theories. The first method uses a variational discretization of the physical equations and the mesh equations are then coupled in a way typical of the existing r-adaptive schemes. The second method treats the mesh points as pseudo-particles and incorporates their dynamics directly into the variational principle. A user-specified adaptation strategy is then enforced through Lagrange multipliers as a constraint on the dynamics of both the physical field and the mesh points. We discuss the advantages and limitations of our methods. The proposed methods are readily applicable to (weakly) non-degenerate field theories---numerical results for the Sine-Gordon equation are presented.

In an attempt to extend our approach to degenerate field theories, in the last part of this thesis we construct higher-order variational integrators for a class of degenerate systems described by Lagrangians that are linear in velocities. We analyze the geometry underlying such systems and develop the appropriate theory for variational integration. Our main observation is that the evolution takes place on the primary constraint and the 'Hamiltonian' equations of motion can be formulated as an index 1 differential-algebraic system. We then proceed to construct variational Runge-Kutta methods and analyze their properties. The general properties of Runge-Kutta methods depend on the 'velocity' part of the Lagrangian. If the 'velocity' part is also linear in the position coordinate, then we show that non-partitioned variational Runge-Kutta methods are equivalent to integration of the corresponding first-order Euler-Lagrange equations, which have the form of a Poisson system with a constant structure matrix, and the classical properties of the Runge-Kutta method are retained. If the 'velocity' part is nonlinear in the position coordinate, we observe a reduction of the order of convergence, which is typical of numerical integration of DAEs. We also apply our methods to several models and present the results of our numerical experiments.

Edge function method applied to thin plates resting on Winkler foundation

The Edge Function method formerly developed by Quinlan⁽²⁵⁾ is applied to solve the problem of thin elastic plates resting on spring supported foundations subjected to lateral loads the method can be applied to plates of any convex polygonal shapes, however, since most plates are rectangular in shape, this specific class is investigated in this thesis. The method discussed can also be applied easily to other kinds of foundation models (e.g. springs connected to each other by a membrane) as long as the resulting differential equation is linear. In chapter VII, solution of a specific problem is compared with a known solution from literature. In chapter VIII, further comparisons are given. The problems of concentrated load on an edge and later on a corner of a plate as long as they are far away from other boundaries are also given in the chapter and generalized to other loading intensities and/or plates springs constants for Poisson's ratio equal to 0.2

Radiation from a short electric dipole antenna in a hot uniaxial plasma

The effects of electron temperature on the radiation fields and the resistance of a short dipole antenna embedded in a uniaxial plasma have been studied. It is found that for ω < ω_p the antenna excites two waves, a slow wave and a fast wave. These waves propagate only within a cone whose axis is parallel to the biasing magnetostatic field B_o and whose semicone angle is slightly less than sin ^(-1) (ω/ω_p). In the case of ω > ω_p the antenna excites two separate modes of radiation. One of the modes is the electromagnetic mode, while the other mode is of hot plasma origin. A characteristic interference structure is noted in the angular distribution of the field. The far fields are evaluated by asymptotic methods, while the near fields are calculated numerically. The effects of antenna length ℓ, electron thermal speed, collisional and Landau damping on the near field patterns have been studied.

The input and the radiation resistances are calculated and are shown to remain finite for nonzero electron thermal velocities. The effect of Landau damping and the antenna length on the input and radiation resistances has been considered.

The radiation condition for solving Maxwell's equations is discussed and the phase and group velocities for propagation given. It is found that for ω < ω_p in the radial direction (cylindrical coordinates) the power flow is in the opposite direction to that of the phase propagation. For ω > ω_p the hot plasma mode has similar characteristics.

Theory of viscous and thermal attenuation of sound by small spheres

The problem is to calculate the attenuation of plane sound waves passing through a viscous, heat-conducting fluid containing small spherical inhomogeneities. The attenuation is calculated by evaluating the rate of increase of entropy caused by two irreversible processes: (1) the mechanical work done by the viscous stresses in the presence of velocity gradients, and (2) the flow of heat down the thermal gradients. The method is first applied to a homogeneous fluid with no spheres and shown to give the classical Stokes-Kirchhoff expressions. The method is then used to calculate the additional viscous and thermal attenuation when small spheres are present. The viscous attenuation agrees with Epstein's result obtained in 1941 for a non-heat-conducting fluid. The thermal attenuation is found to be similar in form to the viscous attenuation and, for gases, of comparable magnitude. The general results are applied to the case of water drops in air and air bubbles in water.

For water drops in air the viscous and thermal attenuations are camparable; the thermal losses occur almost entirely in the air, the thermal dissipation in the water being negligible. The theoretical values are compared with Knudsen's experimental data for fogs and found to agree in order of magnitude and dependence on frequency. For air bubbles in water the viscous losses are negligible and the calculated attenuation is almost completely due to thermal losses occurring in the air inside the bubbles, the thermal dissipation in the water being relatively small. (These results apply only to non-resonant bubbles whose radius changes but slightly during the acoustic cycle.)

Imperfection Insensitive Thin Shells

The buckling of axially compressed cylindrical shells and externally pressurized spherical shells is extremely sensitive to even very small geometric imperfections. In practice this issue is addressed by either using overly conservative knockdown factors, while keeping perfect axial or spherical symmetry, or adding closely and equally spaced stiffeners on shell surface. The influence of imperfection-sensitivity is mitigated, but the shells designed from these approaches are either too heavy or very expensive and are still sensitive to imperfections. Despite their drawbacks, these approaches have been used for more than half a century.

This thesis proposes a novel method to design imperfection-insensitive cylindrical shells subject to axial compression. Instead of following the classical paths, focused on axially symmetric or high-order rotationally symmetric cross-sections, the method in this thesis adopts optimal symmetry-breaking wavy cross-sections (wavy shells). The avoidance of imperfection sensitivity is achieved by searching with an evolutionary algorithm for smooth cross-sectional shapes that maximize the minimum among the buckling loads of geometrically perfect and imperfect wavy shells. It is found that the shells designed through this approach can achieve higher critical stresses and knockdown factors than any previously known monocoque cylindrical shells. It is also found that these shells have superior mass efficiency to almost all previously reported stiffened shells.

Experimental studies on a design of composite wavy shell obtained through the proposed method are presented in this thesis. A method of making composite wavy shells and a photogrametry technique of measuring full-field geometric imperfections have been developed. Numerical predictions based on the measured geometric imperfections match remarkably well with the experiments. Experimental results confirm that the wavy shells are not sensitive to imperfections and can carry axial compression with superior mass efficiency.

An efficient computational method for the buckling analysis of corrugated and stiffened cylindrical shells subject to axial compression has been developed in this thesis. This method modifies the traditional Bloch wave method based on the stiffness matrix method of rotationally periodic structures. A highly efficient algorithm has been developed to implement the modified Bloch wave method. This method is applied in buckling analyses of a series of corrugated composite cylindrical shells and a large-scale orthogonally stiffened aluminum cylindrical shell. Numerical examples show that the modified Bloch wave method can achieve very high accuracy and require much less computational time than linear and nonlinear analyses of detailed full finite element models.

This thesis presents parametric studies on a series of externally pressurized pseudo-spherical shells, i.e., polyhedral shells, including icosahedron, geodesic shells, and triambic icosahedra. Several optimization methods have been developed to further improve the performance of pseudo-spherical shells under external pressure. It has been shown that the buckling pressures of the shell designs obtained from the optimizations are much higher than the spherical shells and not sensitive to imperfections.

An investigation of the stresses and deflections of swept plates

The problem in this investigation was to determine the stress and deflection patterns of a thick cantilever plate at various angles of sweepback.

The plate was tested at angles of sweepback of zero, twenty, forty, and sixty degrees under uniform shear load at the tip, uniformly distributed load and torsional loading.

For all angles of sweep and for all types of loading the area of critical stress is near the intersection of the root and trailing edge. Stresses near the leading edge at the root decreased rapidly with increase in angle of sweep for all types of loading. In the outer portion of the plate near the trailing edge the stresses due to the uniform shear and the uniformly distributed load did not vary for angles of sweep up to forty degrees. For the uniform shear and the uniformly distributed loads for all angles of sweep the area in which end effect is pronounced extends from the root to approximately three quarters of a chord length outboard of a line perpendicular to the axis of the plate through the trailing edge root. In case of uniform shear and uniformly distributed loads the deflections near the edge at seventy-five per cent semi-span decreased with increase in angle of sweep. Deflections near the trailing edge under the same loading conditions increased with increase in angle of sweep for small angles and then decreased at the higher angles of sweep. The maximum deflection due to torsional loading increased with increase in angle of sweep.

I. Stokes flow past a thin screen. II. Viscous flows past porous bodies of finite size

Part I

The slow, viscous flow past a thin screen is analyzed based on Stokes equations. The problem is reduced to an associated electric potential problem as introduced by Roscoe. Alternatively, the problem is formulated in terms of a Stokeslet distribution, which turns out to be equivalent to the first approach.

Special interest is directed towards the solution of the Stokes flow past a circular annulus. A "Stokeslet" formulation is used in this analysis. The problem is finally reduced to solving a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Numerical data for the drag coefficient and the mean velocity through the hole of the annulus are obtained.

Stokes flow past a circular screen with numerous holes is also attempted by assuming a set of approximate boundary conditions. An "electric potential" formulation is used, and the problem is also reduced to solving a Fredholm integral equation of the second kind. Drag coefficient and mean velocity through the screen are computed.

Part II

The purpose of this investigation is to formulate correctly a set of boundary conditions to be prescribed at the interface between a viscous flow region and a porous medium so that the problem of a viscous flow past a porous body can be solved.

General macroscopic equations of motion for flow through porous media are first derived by averaging Stokes equations over a volume element of the medium. These equations, including viscous stresses for the description, are more general than Darcy's law. They reduce to Darcy's law when the Darcy number becomes extremely small.

The interface boundary conditions of the first kind are then formulated with respect to the general macroscopic equations applied within the porous region. An application of such equations and boundary conditions to a Poiseuille shear flow problem demonstrates that there usually exists a thin interface layer immediately inside the porous medium in which the tangential velocity varies exponentially and Darcy's law does not apply.

With Darcy's law assumed within the porous region, interface boundary conditions of the second kind are established which relate the flow variables across the interface layer. The primary feature is a jump condition on the tangential velocity, which is found to be directly proportional to the normal gradient of the tangential velocity immediately outside the porous medium. This is in agreement with the experimental results of Beavers, et al.

The derived boundary conditions are applied in the solutions of two other problems: (1) Viscous flow between a rotating solid cylinder and a stationary porous cylinder, and (2) Stokes flow past a porous sphere.