Estimation of catalyst activity profiles and deactivation parameters from reactor operating data with applications to naphtha reforming

Techniques are developed for estimating activity profiles in fixed bed reactors and catalyst deactivation parameters from operating reactor data. These techniques are applicable, in general, to most industrial catalytic processes. The catalytic reforming of naphthas is taken as a broad example to illustrate the estimation schemes and to signify the physical meaning of the kinetic parameters of the estimation equations. The work is described in two parts. Part I deals with the modeling of kinetic rate expressions and the derivation of the working equations for estimation. Part II concentrates on developing various estimation techniques.

Part I: The reactions used to describe naphtha reforming are dehydrogenation and dehydroisomerization of cycloparaffins; isomerization, dehydrocyclization and hydrocracking of paraffins; and the catalyst deactivation reactions, namely coking on alumina sites and sintering of platinum crystallites. The rate expressions for the above reactions are formulated, and the effects of transport limitations on the overall reaction rates are discussed in the appendices. Moreover, various types of interaction between the metallic and acidic active centers of reforming catalysts are discussed as characterizing the different types of reforming reactions.

Part II: In catalytic reactor operation, the activity distribution along the reactor determines the kinetics of the main reaction and is needed for predicting the effect of changes in the feed state and the operating conditions on the reactor output. In the case of a monofunctional catalyst and of bifunctional catalysts in limiting conditions, the cumulative activity is sufficient for predicting steady reactor output. The estimation of this cumulative activity can be carried out easily from measurements at the reactor exit. For a general bifunctional catalytic system, the detailed activity distribution is needed for describing the reactor operation, and some approximation must be made to obtain practicable estimation schemes. This is accomplished by parametrization techniques using measurements at a few points along the reactor. Such parametrization techniques are illustrated numerically with a simplified model of naphtha reforming.

To determine long term catalyst utilization and regeneration policies, it is necessary to estimate catalyst deactivation parameters from the the current operating data. For a first order deactivation model with a monofunctional catalyst or with a bifunctional catalyst in special limiting circumstances, analytical techniques are presented to transform the partial differential equations to ordinary differential equations which admit more feasible estimation schemes. Numerical examples include the catalytic oxidation of butene to butadiene and a simplified model of naphtha reforming. For a general bifunctional system or in the case of a monofunctional catalyst subject to general power law deactivation, the estimation can only be accomplished approximately. The basic feature of an appropriate estimation scheme involves approximating the activity profile by certain polynomials and then estimating the deactivation parameters from the integrated form of the deactivation equation by regression techniques. Different bifunctional systems must be treated by different estimation algorithms, which are illustrated by several cases of naphtha reforming with different feed or catalyst composition.

Microscopic Origin of Macroscopic Strength in Granular Media: A Numerical and Analytical Approach

Constitutive modeling in granular materials has historically been based on macroscopic experimental observations that, while being usually effective at predicting the bulk behavior of these type of materials, suffer important limitations when it comes to understanding the physics behind grain-to-grain interactions that induce the material to macroscopically behave in a given way when subjected to certain boundary conditions.

The advent of the discrete element method (DEM) in the late 1970s helped scientists and engineers to gain a deeper insight into some of the most fundamental mechanisms furnishing the grain scale. However, one of the most critical limitations of classical DEM schemes has been their inability to account for complex grain morphologies. Instead, simplified geometries such as discs, spheres, and polyhedra have typically been used. Fortunately, in the last fifteen years, there has been an increasing development of new computational as well as experimental techniques, such as non-uniform rational basis splines (NURBS) and 3D X-ray Computed Tomography (3DXRCT), which are contributing to create new tools that enable the inclusion of complex grain morphologies into DEM schemes.

Yet, as the scientific community is still developing these new tools, there is still a gap in thoroughly understanding the physical relations connecting grain and continuum scales as well as in the development of discrete techniques that can predict the emergent behavior of granular materials without resorting to phenomenology, but rather can directly unravel the micro-mechanical origin of macroscopic behavior.

In order to contribute towards closing the aforementioned gap, we have developed a micro-mechanical analysis of macroscopic peak strength, critical state, and residual strength in two-dimensional non-cohesive granular media, where typical continuum constitutive quantities such as frictional strength and dilation angle are explicitly related to their corresponding grain-scale counterparts (e.g., inter-particle contact forces, fabric, particle displacements, and velocities), providing an across-the-scale basis for better understanding and modeling granular media.

In the same way, we utilize a new DEM scheme (LS-DEM) that takes advantage of a mathematical technique called level set (LS) to enable the inclusion of real grain shapes into a classical discrete element method. After calibrating LS-DEM with respect to real experimental results, we exploit part of its potential to study the dependency of critical state (CS) parameters such as the critical state line (CSL) slope, CSL intercept, and CS friction angle on the grain's morphology, i.e., sphericity, roundness, and regularity.

Finally, we introduce a first computational algorithm to ``clone'' the grain morphologies of a sample of real digital grains. This cloning algorithm allows us to generate an arbitrary number of cloned grains that satisfy the same morphological features (e.g., roundness and aspect ratio) displayed by their real parents and can be included into a DEM simulation of a given mechanical phenomenon. In turn, this will help with the development of discrete techniques that can directly predict the engineering scale behavior of granular media without resorting to phenomenology.

Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Analysis and optimization of stress wave propagation in two-dimensional granular crystals with defects

Granular crystals are compact periodic assemblies of elastic particles in Hertzian contact whose dynamic response can be tuned from strongly nonlinear to linear by the addition of a static precompression force. This unique feature allows for a wide range of studies that include the investigation of new fundamental nonlinear phenomena in discrete systems such as solitary waves, shock waves, discrete breathers and other defect modes. In the absence of precompression, a particularly interesting property of these systems is their ability to support the formation and propagation of spatially localized soliton-like waves with highly tunable properties. The wealth of parameters one can modify (particle size, geometry and material properties, periodicity of the crystal, presence of a static force, type of excitation, etc.) makes them ideal candidates for the design of new materials for practical applications. This thesis describes several ways to optimally control and tailor the propagation of stress waves in granular crystals through the use of heterogeneities (interstitial defect particles and material heterogeneities) in otherwise perfectly ordered systems. We focus on uncompressed two-dimensional granular crystals with interstitial spherical intruders and composite hexagonal packings and study their dynamic response using a combination of experimental, numerical and analytical techniques. We first investigate the interaction of defect particles with a solitary wave and utilize this fundamental knowledge in the optimal design of novel composite wave guides, shock or vibration absorbers obtained using gradient-based optimization methods.

Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Dynamic response of structures with uncertain parameters

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the response of linear structural systems with parameter uncertainties subjected to either deterministic or random excitation. The parameter uncertainties are modeled as random variables or random fields, and are assumed to be time-independent. The new method is an extension of the deterministic finite element method to the space of random functions.

First, the general formulation of the method is developed, in the case where the excitation is deterministic in time. Next, the application of this formulation to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with uncertainty in their physical properties is described. A particular physical conceptualization of this equation is chosen for study, and some engineering applications are discussed in both an earthquake ground motion and a structural context.

Finally, the formulation of the new method is extended to include cases where the excitation is random in time. Application of this formulation to the random response of a primary-secondary system is described. It is found that parameter uncertainties can have a strong effect on the system response characteristics.

Accelerogram processing using reliability bounds and optimal correction methods

This study addresses the problem of obtaining reliable velocities and displacements from accelerograms, a concern which often arises in earthquake engineering. A closed-form acceleration expression with random parameters is developed to test any strong-motion accelerogram processing method. Integration of this analytical time history yields the exact velocities, displacements and Fourier spectra. Noise and truncation can also be added. A two-step testing procedure is proposed and the original Volume II routine is used as an illustration. The main sources of error are identified and discussed. Although these errors may be reduced, it is impossible to extract the true time histories from an analog or digital accelerogram because of the uncertain noise level and missing data. Based on these uncertainties, a probabilistic approach is proposed as a new accelerogram processing method. A most probable record is presented as well as a reliability interval which reflects the level of error-uncertainty introduced by the recording and digitization process. The data is processed in the frequency domain, under assumptions governing either the initial value or the temporal mean of the time histories. This new processing approach is tested on synthetic records. It induces little error and the digitization noise is adequately bounded. Filtering is intended to be kept to a minimum and two optimal error-reduction methods are proposed. The "noise filters" reduce the noise level at each harmonic of the spectrum as a function of the signal-to-noise ratio. However, the correction at low frequencies is not sufficient to significantly reduce the drifts in the integrated time histories. The "spectral substitution method" uses optimization techniques to fit spectral models of near-field, far-field or structural motions to the amplitude spectrum of the measured data. The extremes of the spectrum of the recorded data where noise and error prevail are then partly altered, but not removed, and statistical criteria provide the choice of the appropriate cutoff frequencies. This correction method has been applied to existing strong-motion far-field, near-field and structural data with promising results. Since this correction method maintains the whole frequency range of the record, it should prove to be very useful in studying the long-period dynamics of local geology and structures.

Fluctuations in a tokamak plasma

An experimental investigation of low frequency floating potential fluctuations (f ≤ 200 kHz) in a research tokamak plasma using two spatially separated electrostatic probes has been performed. The spectra, correlation length, and the phase velocity of the fluctuations in both the radial and azimuthal direction have been determined. The propagation velocity in the toroidal direction was also measured and was found to be in the direction of electron current flow. The waves traveled azimuthally in the ion diamagnetic drift direction, even after the usual E x B rotation was taken into account. The electron density fluctuations associated with these oscillations were large, δn/n ≃ 0.35 - 0.50.

The spectra were found to have regularly spaced peaks which seemed to be related to specific azimuthal modes (m =1,2,3,...,etc. ) A parametric study was made to determine what effect plasma parameters had on these peaks. During periods of high electron density in the first 2 msec of the plasma lifetime, strong sawtooth type oscillations were observed. These oscillations typically had frequencies of approximately 10 kHz and were also present when large amounts of neutral gas were added during the discharge by a process called "gas puffing."

The results are compared with experimental observations made on other plasma devices with electric and magnetic probes and with microwave and CO₂ laser scattering techniques. (The scattering measurements are complimentary to the probe measurements since, in the former case, the wavelength is fixed by the scattering angle, but the oscillations could not be spatially localized.) The oscillations in the Caltech torus were probably related to a drift-tearing type instability which is thought to play a major role in the anomalous particle and energy flux observed in tokamaks. Comparisons are made between current theory and the experimental results. However, the theory for the observed oscillations is still in a rudimentary stage of development, and it is hoped that the present investigation will stimulate future analytical work.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Experimental, Numerical and Analytical Studies of the MHD-driven plasma jet, instabilities and waves

This thesis describes a series of experimental, numerical, and analytical studies involving the Caltech magnetohydrodynamically (MHD)-driven plasma jet experiment. The plasma jet is created via a capacitor discharge that powers a magnetized coaxial planar electrodes system. The jet is collimated and accelerated by the MHD forces.

We present three-dimensional ideal MHD finite-volume simulations of the plasma jet experiment using an astrophysical magnetic tower as the baseline model. A compact magnetic energy/helicity injection is exploited in the simulation analogous to both the experiment and to astrophysical situations. Detailed analysis provides a comprehensive description of the interplay of magnetic force, pressure, and flow effects. We delineate both the jet structure and the transition process that converts the injected magnetic energy to other forms.

When the experimental jet is sufficiently long, it undergoes a global kink instability and then a secondary local Rayleigh-Taylor instability caused by lateral acceleration of the kink instability. We present an MHD theory of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability on the cylindrical surface of a plasma flux rope in the presence of a lateral external gravity. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is found to couple to the classic current-driven instability, resulting in a new type of hybrid instability. The coupled instability, produced by combination of helical magnetic field, curvature of the cylindrical geometry, and lateral gravity, is fundamentally different from the classic magnetic Rayleigh-Taylor instability occurring at a two-dimensional planar interface.

In the experiment, this instability cascade from macro-scale to micro-scale eventually leads to the failure of MHD. When the Rayleigh-Taylor instability becomes nonlinear, it compresses and pinches the plasma jet to a scale smaller than the ion skin depth and triggers a fast magnetic reconnection. We built a specially designed high-speed 3D magnetic probe and successfully detected the high frequency magnetic fluctuations of broadband whistler waves associated with the fast reconnection. The magnetic fluctuations exhibit power-law spectra. The magnetic components of single-frequency whistler waves are found to be circularly polarized regardless of the angle between the wave propagation direction and the background magnetic field.

Neutron-neutron scattering parameters from the ^3He(d,t)2p and ^3H(d,^3He)2n reactions

The energy spectra of tritons and Helium-3 nuclei from the reactions ³He(d,t)2p, ³H(d,³He)2n, ³He(d,³He)pn, and ³H(d,t)pn were measured between 6° and 20° at a bombarding energy of 10.9 MeV. An upper limit of 5 μb/sr. was obtained for producing a bound di-neutron at 6° and 7.5°. The ³He(d,t)2p and ³H(d,³He)2n data, together with previous measurements at higher energies, have been used to investigate whether one can unambiguously extract information on the two-nucleon system from these three-body final state reactions. As an aid to these theoretical investigations, Born approximation calculations were made employing realistic nucleon-nucleon potentials and an antisymmetrized final state wave function for the five-particle system. These calculations reproduce many of the features observed in the experimental data and indicate that the role of exchange processes cannot be ignored. The results show that previous attempts to obtain information on the neutron-neutron scattering length from the ³H(d,³He)2n reaction may have seriously overestimated the precision that could be attained.

Effects of injection nozzle configuration on secondary injection into supersonic flow

Gaseous nitrogen and argon were injected into a primary stream of air moving at Mach 2.56. The gases were injected at secondary to primary total pressure ratios from 3.2 to 28.6 through four different nozzles. Two nozzles, one sonic and one supersonic (M = 3.26), injected normal to the primary stream; and two sonic nozzles injected at 45° angles to the primary flow, one injecting upstream and the other downstream. Data consisted of static pressure measurements on the wall near the injector, total pressure profiles in the wake of the injectant plume, and concentration measurements downstream of the flow. Scale parameters were calculated based upon an analytical model of the flow field and their validity verified by experimental results. These scale heights were used to compare normalized wall side forces for the different nozzles and to compare the mixing of the two streams.