An economic approach to consumer product ratings

In three essays we examine user-generated product ratings with aggregation. While recommendation systems have been studied extensively, this simple type of recommendation system has been neglected, despite its prevalence in the field. We develop a novel theoretical model of user-generated ratings. This model improves upon previous work in three ways: it considers rational agents and allows them to abstain from rating when rating is costly; it incorporates rating aggregation (such as averaging ratings); and it considers the effect on rating strategies of multiple simultaneous raters. In the first essay we provide a partial characterization of equilibrium behavior. In the second essay we test this theoretical model in laboratory, and in the third we apply established behavioral models to the data generated in the lab. This study provides clues to the prevalence of extreme-valued ratings in field implementations. We show theoretically that in equilibrium, ratings distributions do not represent the value distributions of sincere ratings. Indeed, we show that if rating strategies follow a set of regularity conditions, then in equilibrium the rate at which players participate is increasing in the extremity of agents' valuations of the product. This theoretical prediction is realized in the lab. We also find that human subjects show a disproportionate predilection for sincere rating, and that when they do send insincere ratings, they are almost always in the direction of exaggeration. Both sincere and exaggerated ratings occur with great frequency despite the fact that such rating strategies are not in subjects' best interest. We therefore apply the behavioral concepts of quantal response equilibrium (QRE) and cursed equilibrium (CE) to the experimental data. Together, these theories explain the data significantly better than does a theory of rational, Bayesian behavior -- accurately predicting key comparative statics. However, the theories fail to predict the high rates of sincerity, and it is clear that a better theory is needed.

Part I. Efforts directed towards the total synthesis of shionone. Part II. Conversion of estrone to androst-4-EN-3-ONE: a new method for activating the C-9 and C-10 positions of estrogenic steroids for substitution

Part I: An approach to the total synthesis of the triterpene shionone is described, which proceeds through the tetracyclic ketone i. The shionone side chain has been attached to this key intermediate in 5 steps, affording the olefin 2 in 29% yield. A method for the stereo-specific introduction of the angular methyl group at C-5 of shionone has been developed on a model system. The attempted utilization of this method to convert olefin 2 into shionone is described.

Part II: A method has been developed for activating the C-9 and C-10 positions of estrogenic steroids for substitution. Estrone has been converted to 4β,5β-epoxy-10β-hydroxyestr-3-one; cleavage of this epoxyketone using an Eschenmoser procedure, and subsequent modification of the product afforded 4-seco-9-estren-3,5-dione 3-ethylene acetal. This versatile intermediate, suitable for substitution at the 9 and/or 10 position, was converted to androst-4-ene-3-one by known procedures.