Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Asymptotic analysis of thin plates under normal load and horizontal edge thrust

We consider the radially symmetric nonlinear von Kármán plate equations for circular or annular plates in the limit of small thickness. The loads on the plate consist of a radially symmetric pressure load and a uniform edge load. The dependence of the steady states on the edge load and thickness is studied using asymptotics as well as numerical calculations. The von Kármán plate equations are a singular perturbation of the Fӧppl membrane equation in the asymptotic limit of small thickness. We study the role of compressive membrane solutions in the small thickness asymptotic behavior of the plate solutions.

We give evidence for the existence of a singular compressive solution for the circular membrane and show by a singular perturbation expansion that the nonsingular compressive solution approach this singular solution as the radial stress at the center of the plate vanishes. In this limit, an infinite number of folds occur with respect to the edge load. Similar behavior is observed for the annular membrane with zero edge load at the inner radius in the limit as the circumferential stress vanishes.

We develop multiscale expansions, which are asymptotic to members of this family for plates with edges that are elastically supported against rotation. At some thicknesses this approximation breaks down and a boundary layer appears at the center of the plate. In the limit of small normal load, the points of breakdown approach the bifurcation points corresponding to buckling of the nondeflected state. A uniform asymptotic expansion for small thickness combining the boundary layer with a multiscale approximation of the outer solution is developed for this case. These approximations complement the well known boundary layer expansions based on tensile membrane solutions in describing the bending and stretching of thin plates. The approximation becomes inconsistent as the clamped state is approached by increasing the resistance against rotation at the edge. We prove that such an expansion for the clamped circular plate cannot exist unless the pressure load is self-equilibrating.

Chemical studies of viral entry mechanisms: I. Hydrophobic protein-lipid interactions during sendai virus membrane fusion. II. Kinetics of bacteriophage λ DNA injection.

Viruses possess very specific methods of targeting and entering cells. These methods would be extremely useful if they could also be applied to drug delivery, but little is known about the molecular mechanisms of the viral entry process. In order to gain further insight into mechanisms of viral entry, chemical and spectroscopic studies in two systems were conducted, examining hydrophobic protein-lipid interactions during Sendai virus membrane fusion, and the kinetics of bacteriophage λ DNA injection.

Sendai virus glycoprotein interactions with target membranes during the early stages of fusion were examined using time-resolved hydrophobic photoaffinity labeling with the lipid-soluble carbene generator3-(trifluoromethyl)-3-(m-^(125 )I] iodophenyl)diazirine (TID). The probe was incorporated in target membranes prior to virus addition and photolysis. During Sendai virus fusion with liposomes composed of cardiolipin (CL) or phosphatidylserine (PS), the viral fusion (F) protein is preferentially labeled at early time points, supporting the hypothesis that hydrophobic interaction of the fusion peptide at the N-terminus of the F_1 subunit with the target membrane is an initiating event in fusion. Correlation of the hydrophobic interactions with independently monitored fusion kinetics further supports this conclusion. Separation of proteins after labeling shows that the F_1 subunit, containing the putative hydrophobic fusion sequence, is exclusively labeled, and that the F_2 subunit does not participate in fusion. Labeling shows temperature and pH dependence consistent with a need for protein conformational mobility and fusion at neutral pH. Higher amounts of labeling during fusion with CL vesicles than during virus-PS vesicle fusion reflects membrane packing regulation of peptide insertion into target membranes. Labeling of the viral hemagglutinin/neuraminidase (HN) at low pH indicates that HN-mediated fusion is triggered by hydrophobic interactions, after titration of acidic amino acids. HN labeling under nonfusogenic conditions reveals that viral binding may involve hydrophobic as well as electrostatic interactions. Controls for diffusional labeling exclude a major contribution from this source. Labeling during reconstituted Sendai virus envelope-liposome fusion shows that functional reconstitution involves protein retention of the ability to undergo hydrophobic interactions.

Examination of Sendai virus fusion with erythrocyte membranes indicates that hydrophobic interactions also trigger fusion between biological membranes, and that HN binding may involve hydrophobic interactions as well. Labeling of the erythrocyte membranes revealed close membrane association of spectrin, which may play a role in regulating membrane fusion. The data show that hydrophobic fusion protein interaction with both artificial and biological membranes is a triggering event in fusion. Correlation of these results with earlier studies of membrane hydration and fusion kinetics provides a more detailed view of the mechanism of fusion.

The kinetics of DNA injection by bacteriophage λ. into liposomes bearing reconstituted receptors were measured using fluorescence spectroscopy. LamB, the bacteriophage receptor, was extracted from bacteria and reconstituted into liposomes by detergent removal dialysis. The DNA binding fluorophore ethidium bromide was encapsulated in the liposomes during dialysis. Enhanced fluorescence of ethidium bromide upon binding to injected DNA was monitored, and showed that injection is a rapid, one-step process. The bimolecular rate law, determined by the method of initial rates, revealed that injection occurs several times faster than indicated by earlier studies employing indirect assays.

It is hoped that these studies will increase the understanding of the mechanisms of virus entry into cells, and to facilitate the development of virus-mimetic drug delivery strategies.

Distributed Load Control in Multiphase Radial Networks

The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

Stress and load calculation for unknown building

Not available.