The Voting Rights Act, Shelby County, and Redistricting: Improving Estimates of Racially Polarized Voting in a Multiple-Election Context

The Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County has severely limited the power of the Voting Rights Act. I argue that Congressional attempts to pass a new coverage formula are unlikely to gain the necessary Republican support. Instead, I propose a new strategy that takes a “carrot and stick” approach. As the stick, I suggest amending Section 3 to eliminate the need to prove that discrimination was intentional. For the carrot, I envision a competitive grant program similar to the highly successful Race to the Top education grants. I argue that this plan could pass the currently divided Congress.

Without Congressional action, Section 2 is more important than ever before. A successful Section 2 suit requires evidence that voting in the jurisdiction is racially polarized. Accurately and objectively assessing the level of polarization has been and continues to be a challenge for experts. Existing ecological inference methods require estimating polarization levels in individual elections. This is a problem because the Courts want to see a history of polarization across elections.

I propose a new 2-step method to estimate racially polarized voting in a multi-election context. The procedure builds upon the Rosen, Jiang, King, and Tanner (2001) multinomial-Dirichlet model. After obtaining election-specific estimates, I suggest regressing those results on election-specific variables, namely candidate quality, incumbency, and ethnicity of the minority candidate of choice. This allows researchers to estimate the baseline level of support for candidates of choice and test whether the ethnicity of the candidates affected how voters cast their ballots.

Part I. Influence of membrane morphology on ion-exchange and charge propagation in composite polyelectrolyte electrode coatings. Part II. Dynamic surface tension measurements of polarization relaxation at mercury pool electrodes by the method of Wilhelmy.

Part I. Novel composite polyelectrolyte materials were developed that exhibit desirable charge propagation and ion-retention properties. The morphology of electrode coatings cast from these materials was shown to be more important for its electrochemical behavior than its chemical composition.

Part II. The Wilhelmy plate technique for measuring dynamic surface tension was extended to electrified liquid-liquid interphases. The dynamical response of the aqueous NaF-mercury electrified interphase was examined by concomitant measurement of surface tension, current, and applied electrostatic potential. Observations of the surface tension response to linear sweep voltammetry and to step function perturbations in the applied electrostatic potential (e.g., chronotensiometry) provided strong evidence that relaxation processes proceed for time-periods that are at least an order of magnitude longer than the time periods necessary to establish diffusion equilibrium. The dynamical response of the surface tension is analyzed within the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and a kinetic model that requires three simultaneous first order processes.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Braced Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

This thesis examines collapse risk of tall steel braced frame buildings using rupture-to-rafters simulations due to suite of San Andreas earthquakes. Two key advancements in this work are the development of (i) a rational methodology for assigning scenario earthquake probabilities and (ii) an artificial correction-free approach to broadband ground motion simulation. The work can be divided into the following sections: earthquake source modeling, earthquake probability calculations, ground motion simulations, building response, and performance analysis.

As a first step the kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. For each scenario earthquake a 30-year occurrence probability is calculated and we present a rational method to redistribute the forecast earthquake probabilities from UCERF to the simulated scenario earthquake. We illustrate the inner workings of the method through an example involving earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in southern California.

Next, three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2~s-2.0~s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period ($>$ 2.0~s) spectral element synthetics. We superimpose these seismograms on low-frequency seismograms, computed from kinematic source models using the spectral element method, to produce broadband seismograms.

Using the ground motions at 636 sites for the 60 scenario earthquakes, 3-D nonlinear analysis of several variants of an 18-story steel braced frame building, designed for three soil types using the 1994 and 1997 Uniform Building Code provisions and subjected to these ground motions, are conducted. Model performance is classified into one of five performance levels: Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety, Collapse Prevention, Red-Tagged, and Model Collapse. The results are combined with the 30-year probability of occurrence of the San Andreas scenario earthquakes using the PEER performance based earthquake engineering framework to determine the probability of exceedance of these limit states over the next 30 years.

A fully-nonlocal energy-based formulation and high-performance realization of the quasicontinuum method

The quasicontinuum (QC) method was introduced to coarse-grain crystalline atomic ensembles in order to bridge the scales from individual atoms to the micro- and mesoscales. Though many QC formulations have been proposed with varying characteristics and capabilities, a crucial cornerstone of all QC techniques is the concept of summation rules, which attempt to efficiently approximate the total Hamiltonian of a crystalline atomic ensemble by a weighted sum over a small subset of atoms. In this work we propose a novel, fully-nonlocal, energy-based formulation of the QC method with support for legacy and new summation rules through a general energy-sampling scheme. Our formulation does not conceptually differentiate between atomistic and coarse-grained regions and thus allows for seamless bridging without domain-coupling interfaces. Within this structure, we introduce a new class of summation rules which leverage the affine kinematics of this QC formulation to most accurately integrate thermodynamic quantities of interest. By comparing this new class of summation rules to commonly-employed rules through analysis of energy and spurious force errors, we find that the new rules produce no residual or spurious force artifacts in the large-element limit under arbitrary affine deformation, while allowing us to seamlessly bridge to full atomistics. We verify that the new summation rules exhibit significantly smaller force artifacts and energy approximation errors than all comparable previous summation rules through a comprehensive suite of examples with spatially non-uniform QC discretizations in two and three dimensions. Due to the unique structure of these summation rules, we also use the new formulation to study scenarios with large regions of free surface, a class of problems previously out of reach of the QC method. Lastly, we present the key components of a high-performance, distributed-memory realization of the new method, including a novel algorithm for supporting unparalleled levels of deformation. Overall, this new formulation and implementation allows us to efficiently perform simulations containing an unprecedented number of degrees of freedom with low approximation error.