A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

The Colorado River; a source of water and power for Los Angeles

The rapid growth and development of Los Angeles City and County has been one of the phenomena of the present age. The growth of a city from 50,600 to 576,000, an increase of over 1000% in thirty years is an unprecedented occurrence. It has given rise to a variety of problems of increasing magnitude.

Chief among these are: supply of food, water and shelter development of industry and markets, prevention and removal of downtown congestion and protection of life and property. These, of course, are the problems that any city must face. But in the case of a community which doubles its population every ten years, radical and heroic measures must often be taken.

I. The rate and mechanism of the vapor-phase reaction between water and parts-per-million concentrations of nitrogen dioxide. II. The rate and mechanism of the air oxidation of parts-per-million concentrations of nitric oxide in the presence of water vapor.

Part I

A study of the thermal reaction of water vapor and parts-per-million concentrations of nitrogen dioxide was carried out at ambient temperature and at atmospheric pressure. Nitric oxide and nitric acid vapor were the principal products. The initial rate of disappearance of nitrogen dioxide was first order with respect to water vapor and second order with respect to nitrogen dioxide. An initial third-order rate constant of 5.5 (± 0.29) x 10⁴ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 was found at 25˚C. The rate of reaction decreased with increasing temperature. In the temperature range of 25˚C to 50˚C, an activation energy of -978 (± 20) calories was found.

The reaction did not go to completion. From measurements as the reaction approached equilibrium, the free energy of nitric acid vapor was calculated. This value was -18.58 (± 0.04) kilocalories at 25˚C.

The initial rate of reaction was unaffected by the presence of oxygen and was retarded by the presence of nitric oxide. There were no appreciable effects due to the surface of the reactor. Nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide were monitored by gas chromatography during the reaction.

Part II

The air oxidation of nitric oxide, and the oxidation of nitric oxide in the presence of water vapor, were studied in a glass reactor at ambient temperatures and at atmospheric pressure. The concentration of nitric oxide was less than 100 parts-per-million. The concentration of nitrogen dioxide was monitored by gas chromatography during the reaction.

For the dry oxidation, the third-order rate constant was 1.46 (± 0.03) x 10⁴ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 at 25˚C. The activation energy, obtained from measurements between 25˚C and 50˚C, was -1.197 (±0.02) kilocalories.

The presence of water vapor during the oxidation caused the formation of nitrous acid vapor when nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide and water vapor combined. By measuring the difference between the concentrations of nitrogen dioxide during the wet and dry oxidations, the rate of formation of nitrous acid vapor was found. The third-order rate constant for the formation of nitrous acid vapor was equal to 1.5 (± 0.5) x 10⁵ liter² mole^-2 sec^-1 at 40˚C. The reaction rate did not change measurably when the temperature was increased to 50˚C. The formation of nitric acid vapor was prevented by keeping the concentration of nitrogen dioxide low.

Surface effects were appreciable for the wet tests. Below 35˚C, the rate of appearance of nitrogen dioxide increased with increasing surface. Above 40˚C, the effect of surface was small.

A generalized treatment of the order-disorder transformation in alloys and its effects on their magnetic properties

A theory of the order-disorder transformation is developed in complete generality. The general theory is used to calculate long range order parameters, short range order parameters, energy, and phase diagrams for a face centered cubic binary alloy. The theoretical results are compared to the experimental determination of the copper-gold system, Values for the two adjustable parameters are obtained.

An explanation for the behavior of magnetic alloys is developed, Curie temperatures and magnetic moments of the first transition series elements and their alloys in both the ordered and disordered states are predicted. Experimental agreement is excellent in most cases. It is predicted that the state of order can effect the magnetic properties of an alloy to a considerable extent in alloys such as Ni₃Mn. The values of the adjustable parameter used to fix the level of the Curie temperature, and the adjustable parameter that expresses the effect of ordering on the Curie temperature are obtained.

I. Quantum mechanics of one-dimensional two-particle models. II. A quantum mechanical treatment of inelastic collisions

Part I

Solutions of Schrödinger’s equation for system of two particles bound in various stationary one-dimensional potential wells and repelling each other with a Coulomb force are obtained by the method of finite differences. The general properties of such systems are worked out in detail for the case of two electrons in an infinite square well. For small well widths (1-10 a.u.) the energy levels lie above those of the noninteresting particle model by as much as a factor of 4, although excitation energies are only half again as great. The analytical form of the solutions is obtained and it is shown that every eigenstate is doubly degenerate due to the “pathological” nature of the one-dimensional Coulomb potential. This degeneracy is verified numerically by the finite-difference method. The properties of the square-well system are compared with those of the free-electron and hard-sphere models; perturbation and variational treatments are also carried out using the hard-sphere Hamiltonian as a zeroth-order approximation. The lowest several finite-difference eigenvalues converge from below with decreasing mesh size to energies below those of the “best” linear variational function consisting of hard-sphere eigenfunctions. The finite-difference solutions in general yield expectation values and matrix elements as accurate as those obtained using the “best” variational function.

The system of two electrons in a parabolic well is also treated by finite differences. In this system it is possible to separate the center-of-mass motion and hence to effect a considerable numerical simplification. It is shown that the pathological one-dimensional Coulomb potential gives rise to doubly degenerate eigenstates for the parabolic well in exactly the same manner as for the infinite square well.

Part II

A general method of treating inelastic collisions quantum mechanically is developed and applied to several one-dimensional models. The formalism is first developed for nonreactive “vibrational” excitations of a bound system by an incident free particle. It is then extended to treat simple exchange reactions of the form A + BC →AB + C. The method consists essentially of finding a set of linearly independent solutions of the Schrödinger equation such that each solution of the set satisfies a distinct, yet arbitrary boundary condition specified in the asymptotic region. These linearly independent solutions are then combined to form a total scattering wavefunction having the correct asymptotic form. The method of finite differences is used to determine the linearly independent functions.

The theory is applied to the impulsive collision of a free particle with a particle bound in (1) an infinite square well and (2) a parabolic well. Calculated transition probabilities agree well with previously obtained values.

Several models for the exchange reaction involving three identical particles are also treated: (1) infinite-square-well potential surface, in which all three particles interact as hard spheres and each two-particle subsystem (i.e. BC and AB) is bound by an attractive infinite-square-well potential; (2) truncated parabolic potential surface, in which the two-particle subsystems are bound by a harmonic oscillator potential which becomes infinite for interparticle separations greater than a certain value; (3) parabolic (untruncated) surface. Although there are no published values with which to compare our reaction probabilities, several independent checks on internal consistency indicate that the results are reliable.

Solubility and Diffusivity of Water in Lunar Basalt, and Chemical Zonation in Olivine-Hosted Melt Inclusions

I report the solubility and diffusivity of water in lunar basalt and an iron-free basaltic analogue at 1 atm and 1350 °C. Such parameters are critical for understanding the degassing histories of lunar pyroclastic glasses. Solubility experiments have been conducted over a range of fO₂ conditions from three log units below to five log units above the iron-wüstite buffer (IW) and over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from 0.03 to 24. Quenched experimental glasses were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and secondary ionization mass spectrometry (SIMS) and were found to contain up to ~420 ppm water. Results demonstrate that, under the conditions of our experiments: (1) hydroxyl is the only H-bearing species detected by FTIR; (2) the solubility of water is proportional to the square root of pH₂O in the furnace atmosphere and is independent of fO₂ and pH₂/pH₂O; (3) the solubility of water is very similar in both melt compositions; (4) the concentration of H₂ in our iron-free experiments is <3 ppm, even at oxygen fugacities as low as IW-2.3 and pH₂/pH₂O as high as 24; and (5) SIMS analyses of water in iron-rich glasses equilibrated under variable fO₂ conditions can be strongly influenced by matrix effects, even when the concentrations of water in the glasses are low. Our results can be used to constrain the entrapment pressure of the lunar melt inclusions of Hauri et al. (2011).

Diffusion experiments were conducted over a range of fO₂ conditions from IW-2.2 to IW+6.7 and over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from nominally zero to ~10. The water concentrations measured in our quenched experimental glasses by SIMS and FTIR vary from a few ppm to ~430 ppm. Water concentration gradients are well described by models in which the diffusivity of water (D^*_water) is assumed to be constant. The relationship between D^*_water and water concentration is well described by a modified speciation model (Ni et al. 2012) in which both molecular water and hydroxyl are allowed to diffuse. The success of this modified speciation model for describing our results suggests that we have resolved the diffusivity of hydroxyl in basaltic melt for the first time. Best-fit values of D^*_water for our experiments on lunar basalt vary within a factor of ~2 over a range of pH₂/pH₂O from 0.007 to 9.7, a range of fO₂ from IW-2.2 to IW+4.9, and a water concentration range from ~80 ppm to ~280 ppm. The relative insensitivity of our best-fit values of D^*_water to variations in pH₂ suggests that H₂ diffusion was not significant during degassing of the lunar glasses of Saal et al. (2008). D^*_water during dehydration and hydration in H₂/CO₂ gas mixtures are approximately the same, which supports an equilibrium boundary condition for these experiments. However, dehydration experiments into CO₂ and CO/CO₂ gas mixtures leave some scope for the importance of kinetics during dehydration into H-free environments. The value of D^*_water chosen by Saal et al. (2008) for modeling the diffusive degassing of the lunar volcanic glasses is within a factor of three of our measured value in our lunar basaltic melt at 1350 °C.

In Chapter 4 of this thesis, I document significant zonation in major, minor, trace, and volatile elements in naturally glassy olivine-hosted melt inclusions from the Siqueiros Fracture Zone and the Galapagos Islands. Components with a higher concentration in the host olivine than in the melt (MgO, FeO, Cr₂O₃, and MnO) are depleted at the edges of the zoned melt inclusions relative to their centers, whereas except for CaO, H₂O, and F, components with a lower concentration in the host olivine than in the melt (Al₂O₃, SiO₂, Na₂O, K₂O, TiO₂, S, and Cl) are enriched near the melt inclusion edges. This zonation is due to formation of an olivine-depleted boundary layer in the adjacent melt in response to cooling and crystallization of olivine on the walls of the melt inclusions concurrent with diffusive propagation of the boundary layer toward the inclusion center.

Concentration profiles of some components in the melt inclusions exhibit multicomponent diffusion effects such as uphill diffusion (CaO, FeO) or slowing of the diffusion of typically rapidly diffusing components (Na₂O, K₂O) by coupling to slow diffusing components such as SiO₂ and Al₂O₃. Concentrations of H2O and F decrease towards the edges of some of the Siqueiros melt inclusions, suggesting either that these components have been lost from the inclusions into the host olivine late in their cooling histories and/or that these components are exhibiting multicomponent diffusion effects.

A model has been developed of the time-dependent evolution of MgO concentration profiles in melt inclusions due to simultaneous depletion of MgO at the inclusion walls due to olivine growth and diffusion of MgO in the melt inclusions in response to this depletion. Observed concentration profiles were fit to this model to constrain their thermal histories. Cooling rates determined by a single-stage linear cooling model are 150–13,000 °C hr^-1 from the liquidus down to ~1000 °C, consistent with previously determined cooling rates for basaltic glasses; compositional trends with melt inclusion size observed in the Siqueiros melt inclusions are described well by this simple single-stage linear cooling model. Despite the overall success of the modeling of MgO concentration profiles using a single-stage cooling history, MgO concentration profiles in some melt inclusions are better fit by a two-stage cooling history with a slower-cooling first stage followed by a faster-cooling second stage; the inferred total duration of cooling from the liquidus down to ~1000 °C is 40 s to just over one hour.

Based on our observations and models, compositions of zoned melt inclusions (even if measured at the centers of the inclusions) will typically have been diffusively fractionated relative to the initially trapped melt; for such inclusions, the initial composition cannot be simply reconstructed based on olivine-addition calculations, so caution should be exercised in application of such reconstructions to correct for post-entrapment crystallization of olivine on inclusion walls. Off-center analyses of a melt inclusion can also give results significantly fractionated relative to simple olivine crystallization.

All melt inclusions from the Siqueiros and Galapagos sample suites exhibit zoning profiles, and this feature may be nearly universal in glassy, olivine-hosted inclusions. If so, zoning profiles in melt inclusions could be widely useful to constrain late-stage syneruptive processes and as natural diffusion experiments.