Test particle motion in a Lorentz gas

This is a two-part thesis concerning the motion of a test particle in a bath. In part one we use an expansion of the operator PLe^it(1-P)LLP to shape the Zwanzig equation into a generalized Fokker-Planck equation which involves a diffusion tensor depending on the test particle's momentum and the time.

In part two the resultant equation is studied in some detail for the case of test particle motion in a weakly coupled Lorentz Gas. The diffusion tensor for this system is considered. Some of its properties are calculated; it is computed explicitly for the case of a Gaussian potential of interaction.

The equation for the test particle distribution function can be put into the form of an inhomogeneous Schroedinger equation. The term corresponding to the potential energy in the Schroedinger equation is considered. Its structure is studied, and some of its simplest features are used to find the Green's function in the limiting situations of low density and long time.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.