Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Topics in vortex motion

Six topics in incompressible, inviscid fluid flow involving vortex motion are presented. The stability of the unsteady flow field due to the vortex filament expanding under the influence of an axial compression is examined in the first chapter as a possible model of the vortex bursting observed in aircraft contrails. The filament with a stagnant core is found to be unstable to axisymmetric disturbances. For initial disturbances with the form of axisymmetric Kelvin waves, the filament with a uniformly rotating core is neutrally stable, but the compression causes the disturbance to undergo a rapid increase in amplitude. The time at which the increase occurs is, however, later than the observed bursting times, indicating the bursting phenomenon is not caused by this type of instability.

In the second and third chapters the stability of a steady vortex filament deformed by two-dimensional strain and shear flows, respectively, is examined. The steady deformations are in the plane of the vortex cross-section. Disturbances which deform the filament centerline into a wave which does not propagate along the filament are shown to be unstable and a method is described to calculate the wave number and corresponding growth rate of the amplified waves for a general distribution of vorticity in the vortex core.

In Chapter Four exact solutions are constructed for two-dimensional potential flow over a wing with a free ideal vortex standing over the wing. The loci of positions of the free vortex are found and the lift is calculated. It is found that the lift on the wing can be significantly increased by the free vortex.

The two-dimensional trajectories of an ideal vortex pair near an orifice are calculated in Chapter Five. Three geometries are examined, and the criteria for the vortices to travel away from the orifice are determined.

Finally, Chapter Six reproduces completely the paper, "Structure of a linear array of hollow vortices of finite cross-section," co-authored with G. R. Baker and P. G. Saffman. Free streamline theory is employed to construct an exact steady solution for a linear array of hollow, or stagnant cored vortices. If each vortex has area A and the separation is L, then there are two possible shapes if A^(1/2)/L is less than 0.38 and none if it is larger. The stability of the shapes to two-dimensional, periodic and symmetric disturbances is considered for hollow vortices. The more deformed of the two possible shapes is found to be unstable, while the less deformed shape is stable.

A new ground motion intensity measure, peak filtered acceleration (PFA), to estimate collapse vulnerability of buildings in earthquakes

In this thesis, we develop an efficient collapse prediction model, the PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) model, for buildings subjected to different types of ground motions.

For the structural system, the PFA model covers modern steel and reinforced concrete moment-resisting frame buildings (potentially reinforced concrete shear wall buildings). For ground motions, the PFA model covers ramp-pulse-like ground motions, long-period ground motions, and short-period ground motions.

To predict whether a building will collapse in response to a given ground motion, we first extract long-period components from the ground motion using a Butterworth low-pass filter with suggested order and cutoff frequency. The order depends on the type of ground motion, and the cutoff frequency depends on the building’s natural frequency and ductility. We then compare the filtered acceleration time history with the capacity of the building. The capacity of the building is a constant for 2-dimentional buildings and a limit domain for 3-dimentional buildings. If the filtered acceleration exceeds the building’s capacity, the building is predicted to collapse. Otherwise, it is expected to survive the ground motion.

The parameters used in PFA model, which include fundamental period, global ductility and lateral capacity, can be obtained either from numerical analysis or interpolation based on the reference building system proposed in this thesis.

The PFA collapse prediction model greatly reduces computational complexity while archiving good accuracy. It is verified by FEM simulations of 13 frame building models and 150 ground motion records.

Based on the developed collapse prediction model, we propose to use PFA (Peak Filtered Acceleration) as a new ground motion intensity measure for collapse prediction. We compare PFA with traditional intensity measures PGA, PGV, PGD, and Sa in collapse prediction and find that PFA has the best performance among all the intensity measures.

We also provide a close form in term of a vector intensity measure (PGV, PGD) of the PFA collapse prediction model for practical collapse risk assessment.

Test particle motion in a Lorentz gas

This is a two-part thesis concerning the motion of a test particle in a bath. In part one we use an expansion of the operator PLe^it(1-P)LLP to shape the Zwanzig equation into a generalized Fokker-Planck equation which involves a diffusion tensor depending on the test particle's momentum and the time.

In part two the resultant equation is studied in some detail for the case of test particle motion in a weakly coupled Lorentz Gas. The diffusion tensor for this system is considered. Some of its properties are calculated; it is computed explicitly for the case of a Gaussian potential of interaction.

The equation for the test particle distribution function can be put into the form of an inhomogeneous Schroedinger equation. The term corresponding to the potential energy in the Schroedinger equation is considered. Its structure is studied, and some of its simplest features are used to find the Green's function in the limiting situations of low density and long time.

Horizontal Bloch line motion in magnetic bubble materials

The purpose of this work is to extend experimental and theoretical understanding of horizontal Bloch line (HBL) motion in magnetic bubble materials. The present theory of HBL motion is reviewed, and then extended to include transient effects in which the internal domain wall structure changes with time. This is accomplished by numerically solving the equations of motion for the internal azimuthal angle ɸ and the wall position q as functions of z, the coordinate perpendicular to the thin-film material, and time. The effects of HBL's on domain wall motion are investigated by comparing results from wall oscillation experiments with those from the theory. In these experiments, a bias field pulse is used to make a step change in equilibrium position of either bubble or stripe domain walls, and the wall response is measured by using transient photography. During the initial response, the dynamic wall structure closely resembles the initial static structure. The wall accelerates to a relatively high velocity (≈20 m/sec), resulting in a short (≈22 nsec ) section of initial rapid motion. An HBL gradually forms near one of the film surfaces as a result of local dynamic properties, and moves along the wall surface toward the film center. The presence of this structure produces low-frequency, triangular-shaped oscillations in which the experimental wall velocity is nearly constant, v_s≈ 5-8 m/sec. If the HBL reaches the opposite surface, i.e., if the average internal angle reaches an integer multiple of π, the momentum stored in the HBL is lost, and the wall chirality is reversed. This results in abrupt transitions to overdamped motion and changes in wall chirality, which are observed as a function of bias pulse amplitude. The pulse amplitude at which the n^th punch- through occurs just as the wall reaches equilibrium is given within 0.2 0e by H_n = (2v_sH'/γ)^1/2 • (nπ)^1/2 + H_sv), where H' is the effective field gradient from the surrounding domains, and H_sv is a small (less than 0.03 0e), effective drag field. Observations of wall oscillation in the presence of in-plane fields parallel to the wall show that HBL formation is suppressed by fields greater than about 40 0e (≈2πM_s), resulting in the high-frequency, sinusoidal oscillations associated with a simple internal wall structure.

A computer-aided investigation of motion detection units in the fly

This work deals with two related areas: processing of visual information in the central nervous system, and the application of computer systems to research in neurophysiology.

Certain classes of interneurons in the brain and optic lobes of the blowfly Calliphora phaenicia were previously shown to be sensitive to the direction of motion of visual stimuli. These units were identified by visual field, preferred direction of motion, and anatomical location from which recorded. The present work is addressed to the questions: (1) is there interaction between pairs of these units, and (2) if such relationships can be found, what is their nature. To answer these questions, it is essential to record from two or more units simultaneously, and to use more than a single recording electrode if recording points are to be chosen independently. Accordingly, such techniques were developed and are described.

One must also have practical, convenient means for analyzing the large volumes of data so obtained. It is shown that use of an appropriately designed computer system is a profitable approach to this problem. Both hardware and software requirements for a suitable system are discussed and an approach to computer-aided data analysis developed. A description is given of members of a collection of application programs developed for analysis of neuro-physiological data and operated in the environment of and with support from an appropriate computer system. In particular, techniques developed for classification of multiple units recorded on the same electrode are illustrated as are methods for convenient graphical manipulation of data via a computer-driven display.

By means of multiple electrode techniques and the computer-aided data acquisition and analysis system, the path followed by one of the motion detection units was traced from open optic lobe through the brain and into the opposite lobe. It is further shown that this unit and its mirror image in the opposite lobe have a mutually inhibitory relationship. This relationship is investigated. The existence of interaction between other pairs of units is also shown. For pairs of units responding to motion in the same direction, the relationship is of an excitatory nature; for those responding to motion in opposed directions, it is inhibitory.

Experience gained from use of the computer system is discussed and a critical review of the current system is given. The most useful features of the system were found to be the fast response, the ability to go from one analysis technique to another rapidly and conveniently, and the interactive nature of the display system. The shortcomings of the system were problems in real-time use and the programming barrier—the fact that building new analysis techniques requires a high degree of programming knowledge and skill. It is concluded that computer system of the kind discussed will play an increasingly important role in studies of the central nervous system.

The instability of fluids with time dependent heating

The stability of a fluid having a non-uniform temperature stratification is examined analytically for the response of infinitesimal disturbances. The growth rates of disturbances have been established for a semi-infinite fluid for Rayleigh numbers of 10³, 10⁴, and 10⁵ and for Prandtl numbers of 7.0 and 0.7.

The critical Rayleigh number for a semi-infinite fluid, based on the effective fluid depth, is found to be 32, while it is shown that for a finite fluid layer the critical Rayleigh number depends on the rate of heating. The minimum critical Rayleigh number, based on the depth of a fluid layer, is found to be 1340.

The stability of a finite fluid layer is examined for two special forms of heating. The first is constant flux heating, while in the second, the temperature of the lower surface is increased uniformly in time. In both cases, it is shown that for moderate rates of heating the critical Rayleigh number is reduced, over the value for very slow heating, while for very rapid heating the critical Rayleigh number is greatly increased. These results agree with published experimental observations.

The question of steady, non-cellular convection is given qualitative consideration. It is concluded that, although the motion may originate from infinitesimal disturbances during non-uniform heating, the final flow field is intrinsically non-linear.

I. Electronic processes in α-sulfur. II. Polaron motion in a D.C. electric field

Part I: The mobilities of photo-generated electrons and holes in orthorhombic sulfur are determined by drift mobility techniques. At room temperature electron mobilities between 0.4 cm²/V-sec and 4.8 cm²/V-sec and hole mobilities of about 5.0 cm²/V-sec are reported. The temperature dependence of the electron mobility is attributed to a level of traps whose effective depth is about 0.12 eV. This value is further supported by both the voltage dependence of the space-charge-limited, D.C. photocurrents and the photocurrent versus photon energy measurements.

As the field is increased from 10 kV/cm to 30 kV/cm a second mechanism for electron transport becomes appreciable and eventually dominates. Evidence that this is due to impurity band conduction at an appreciably lower mobility (4.10^-4 cm²/V-sec) is presented. No low mobility hole current could be detected. When fields exceeding 30 kV/cm for electron transport and 35 kV/cm for hole transport are applied, avalanche phenomena are observed. The results obtained are consistent with recent energy gap studies in sulfur.

The theory of the transport of photo-generated carriers is modified to include the case of appreciable thermos-regeneration from the traps in one transit time.

Part II: An explicit formula for the electric field E necessary to accelerate an electron to a steady-state velocity v in a polarizable crystal at arbitrary temperature is determined via two methods utilizing Feynman Path Integrals. No approximation is made regarding the magnitude of the velocity or the strength of the field. However, the actual electron-lattice Coulombic interaction is approximated by a distribution of harmonic oscillator potentials. One may be able to find the “best possible” distribution of oscillators using a variational principle, but we have not been able to find the expected criterion. However, our result is relatively insensitive to the actual distribution of oscillators used, and our E-v relationship exhibits the physical behavior expected for the polaron. Threshold fields for ejecting the electron for the polaron state are calculated for several substances using numerical results for a simple oscillator distribution.

The oculomotor system: (1) Vertical-horizontal interaction and signal recognition, (2) Time delays and power spectra

In the first section of this thesis, two-dimensional properties of the human eye movement control system were studied. The vertical - horizontal interaction was investigated by using a two-dimensional target motion consisting of a sinusoid in one of the directions vertical or horizontal, and low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion of variable bandwidth (and hence information content) in the orthogonal direction. It was found that the random motion reduced the efficiency of the sinusoidal tracking. However, the sinusoidal tracking was only slightly dependent on the bandwidth of the random motion. Thus the system should be thought of as consisting of two independent channels with a small amount of mutual cross-talk.

These target motions were then rotated to discover whether or not the system is capable of recognizing the two-component nature of the target motion. That is, the sinusoid was presented along an oblique line (neither vertical nor horizontal) with the random motion orthogonal to it. The system did not simply track the vertical and horizontal components of motion, but rotated its frame of reference so that its two tracking channels coincided with the directions of the two target motion components. This recognition occurred even when the two orthogonal motions were both random, but with different bandwidths.

In the second section, time delays, prediction and power spectra were examined. Time delays were calculated in response to various periodic signals, various bandwidths of narrow-band Gaussian random motions and sinusoids. It was demonstrated that prediction occurred only when the target motion was periodic, and only if the harmonic content was such that the signal was sufficiently narrow-band. It appears as if general periodic motions are split into predictive and non-predictive components.

For unpredictable motions, the relationship between the time delay and the average speed of the retinal image was linear. Based on this I proposed a model explaining the time delays for both random and periodic motions. My experiments did not prove that the system is sampled data, or that it is continuous. However, the model can be interpreted as representative of a sample data system whose sample interval is a function of the target motion.

It was shown that increasing the bandwidth of the low-pass filtered Gaussian random motion resulted in an increase of the eye movement bandwidth. Some properties of the eyeball-muscle dynamics and the extraocular muscle "active state tension" were derived.