Complexity of rupture propagation in large earthquakes in relation to tectonic environment

Complexity in the earthquake rupture process can result from many factors. This study investigates the origin of such complexity by examining several recent, large earthquakes in detail. In each case the local tectonic environment plays an important role in understanding the source of the complexity.

Several large shallow earthquakes (M_s > 7.0) along the Middle American Trench have similarities and differences between them that may lead to a better understanding of fracture and subduction processes. They are predominantly thrust events consistent with the known subduction of the Cocos plate beneath N. America. Two events occurring along this subduction zone close to triple junctions show considerable complexity. This may be attributable to a more heterogeneous stress environment in these regions and as such has implications for other subduction zone boundaries.

An event which looks complex but is actually rather simple is the 1978 Bermuda earthquake (M_s ~ 6). It is located predominantly in the mantle. Its mechanism is one of pure thrust faulting with a strike N 20°W and dip 42°NE. Its apparent complexity is caused by local crustal structure. This is an important event in terms of understanding and estimating seismic hazard on the eastern seaboard of N. America.

A study of several large strike-slip continental earthquakes identifies characteristics which are common to them and may be useful in determining what to expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas fault. The events are the 1976 Guatemala earthquake on the Motagua fault and two events on the Anatolian fault in Turkey (the 1967, Mudurnu Valley and 1976, E. Turkey events). An attempt to model the complex P-waveforms of these events results in good synthetic fits for the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. However, the E. Turkey event proves to be too complex as it may have associated thrust or normal faulting. Several individual sources occurring at intervals of between 5 and 20 seconds characterize the Guatemala and Mudurnu Valley events. The maximum size of an individual source appears to be bounded at about 5 x 10²⁶ dyne-cm. A detailed source study including directivity is performed on the Guatemala event. The source time history of the Mudurnu Valley event illustrates its significance in modeling strong ground motion in the near field. The complex source time series of the 1967 event produces amplitudes greater by a factor of 2.5 than a uniform model scaled to the same size for a station 20 km from the fault.

Three large and important earthquakes demonstrate an important type of complexity --- multiple-fault complexity. The first, the 1976 Philippine earthquake, an oblique thrust event, represents the first seismological evidence for a northeast dipping subduction zone beneath the island of Mindanao. A large event, following the mainshock by 12 hours, occurred outside the aftershock area and apparently resulted from motion on a subsidiary fault since the event had a strike-slip mechanism.

An aftershock of the great 1960 Chilean earthquake on June 6, 1960, proved to be an interesting discovery. It appears to be a large strike-slip event at the main rupture's southern boundary. It most likely occurred on the landward extension of the Chile Rise transform fault, in the subducting plate. The results for this event suggest that a small event triggered a series of slow events; the duration of the whole sequence being longer than 1 hour. This is indeed a "slow earthquake".

Perhaps one of the most complex of events is the recent Tangshan, China event. It began as a large strike-slip event. Within several seconds of the mainshock it may have triggered thrust faulting to the south of the epicenter. There is no doubt, however, that it triggered a large oblique normal event to the northeast, 15 hours after the mainshock. This event certainly contributed to the great loss of life-sustained as a result of the Tangshan earthquake sequence.

What has been learned from these studies has been applied to predict what one might expect from the next great earthquake on the San Andreas. The expectation from this study is that such an event would be a large complex event, not unlike, but perhaps larger than, the Guatemala or Mudurnu Valley events. That is to say, it will most likely consist of a series of individual events in sequence. It is also quite possible that the event could trigger associated faulting on neighboring fault systems such as those occurring in the Transverse Ranges. This has important bearing on the earthquake hazard estimation for the region.

A molecular dynamics study of the microscopic properties of simple dense fluids

The microscopic properties of a two-dimensional model dense fluid of Lennard-Jones disks have been studied using the so-called "molecular dynamics" method. Analyses of the computer-generated simulation data in terms of "conventional" thermodynamic and distribution functions verify the physical validity of the model and the simulation technique.

The radial distribution functions g(r) computed from the simulation data exhibit several subsidiary features rather similar to those appearing in some of the g(r) functions obtained by X-ray and thermal neutron diffraction measurements on real simple liquids. In the case of the model fluid, these "anomalous" features are thought to reflect the existence of two or more alternative configurations for local ordering.

Graphical display techniques have been used extensively to provide some intuitive insight into the various microscopic phenomena occurring in the model. For example, "snapshots" of the instantaneous system configurations for different times show that the "excess" area allotted to the fluid is collected into relatively large, irregular, and surprisingly persistent "holes". Plots of the particle trajectories over intervals of 2.0 to 6.0 x 10^-12 sec indicate that the mechanism for diffusion in the dense model fluid is "cooperative" in nature, and that extensive diffusive migration is generally restricted to groups of particles in the vicinity of a hole.

A quantitative analysis of diffusion in the model fluid shows that the cooperative mechanism is not inconsistent with the statistical predictions of existing theories of singlet, or self-diffusion in liquids. The relative diffusion of proximate particles is, however, found to be retarded by short-range dynamic correlations associated with the cooperative mechanism--a result of some importance from the standpoint of bimolecular reaction kinetics in solution.

A new, semi-empirical treatment for relative diffusion in liquids is developed, and is shown to reproduce the relative diffusion phenomena observed in the model fluid quite accurately. When incorporated into the standard Smoluchowski theory of diffusion-controlled reaction kinetics, the more exact treatment of relative diffusion is found to lower the predicted rate of reaction appreciably.

Finally, an entirely new approach to an understanding of the liquid state is suggested. Our experience in dealing with the simulation data--and especially, graphical displays of the simulation data--has led us to conclude that many of the more frustrating scientific problems involving the liquid state would be simplified considerably, were it possible to describe the microscopic structures characteristic of liquids in a concise and precise manner. To this end, we propose that the development of a formal language of partially-ordered structures be investigated.

The structure of liquid argon as determined by x-ray diffraction

X-ray diffraction measurements and subsequent data analyses have been carried out on liquid argon at five states in the density range of 0.91 to 1.135 gm/cc and temperature range of 127 to 143°K. Duplicate measurements were made on all states. These data yielded radial distribution and direct correlation functions which were then used to compute the pair potential using the Percus-Yevick equation. The potential minima are in the range of -105 to -120°K and appear to substantiate current theoretical estimates of the effective pair potential in the presence of a weak three-body force.

The data analysis procedure used was new and does not distinguish between the coherent and incoherent absorption factors for the cell scattering which were essentially equal. With this simplification, the argon scattering estimate was compared to the gas scattering estimate on the laboratory frame of reference and the two estimates coincided, indicating the data normalized. The argon scattering on the laboratory frame of reference was examined for the existence of the peaks in the structure factor and the existence of an observable third peak was considered doubtful.

Numerical studies of the effect of truncation, normalization, the subsidiary peak phenomenon in the radial distribution function, uncertainties in the low angle data relative to errors in the direct correlation function and the distortion phenomenon are presented.

The distortion phenomenon for this experiment explains why the Mikolaj-Pings argon data yielded pair potential well depths from the Percus-Yevick equation that were too shallow and an apparent slope with respect to density that was too steep compared to theoretical estimates.

The data presented for each measurement are: empty cell and cell plus argon intensity, absorption factors, argon intensity, smoothed argon intensity, smoothed argon intensity corrected for distortion, structure factor, radial distribution function, direct correlation function and the pair potential from the Percus-Yevick equation.