An investigation of techniques for the measurement and interpretation of cosmic ray isotopic abundances

An instrument, the Caltech High Energy Isotope Spectrometer Telescope (HEIST), has been developed to measure isotopic abundances of cosmic ray nuclei in the charge range 3 ≤ Z ≤ 28 and the energy range between 30 and 800 MeV/nuc by employing an energy loss -- residual energy technique. Measurements of particle trajectories and energy losses are made using a multiwire proportional counter hodoscope and a stack of CsI(TI) crystal scintillators, respectively. A detailed analysis has been made of the mass resolution capabilities of this instrument.

Landau fluctuations set a fundamental limit on the attainable mass resolution, which for this instrument ranges between ~.07 AMU for z~3 and ~.2 AMU for z~2b. Contributions to the mass resolution due to uncertainties in measuring the path-length and energy losses of the detected particles are shown to degrade the overall mass resolution to between ~.1 AMU (z~3) and ~.3 AMU (z~2b).

A formalism, based on the leaky box model of cosmic ray propagation, is developed for obtaining isotopic abundance ratios at the cosmic ray sources from abundances measured in local interstellar space for elements having three or more stable isotopes, one of which is believed to be absent at the cosmic ray sources. This purely secondary isotope is used as a tracer of secondary production during propagation. This technique is illustrated for the isotopes of the elements O, Ne, S, Ar and Ca.

The uncertainties in the derived source ratios due to errors in fragmentation and total inelastic cross sections, in observed spectral shapes, and in measured abundances are evaluated. It is shown that the dominant sources of uncertainty are uncorrelated errors in the fragmentation cross sections and statistical uncertainties in measuring local interstellar abundances.

These results are applied to estimate the extent to which uncertainties must be reduced in order to distinguish between cosmic ray production in a solar-like environment and in various environments with greater neutron enrichments.

Observation and interpretation of tectonic strain release mechanisms

In four chapters various aspects of earthquake source are studied.

Chapter I

Surface displacements that followed the Parkfield, 1966, earthquakes were measured for two years with six small-scale geodetic networks straddling the fault trace. The logarithmic rate and the periodic nature of the creep displacement recorded on a strain meter made it possible to predict creep episodes on the San Andreas fault. Some individual earthquakes were related directly to surface displacement, while in general, slow creep and aftershock activity were found to occur independently. The Parkfield earthquake is interpreted as a buried dislocation.

Chapter II

The source parameters of earthquakes between magnitude 1 and 6 were studied using field observations, fault plane solutions, and surface wave and S-wave spectral analysis. The seismic moment, M_O, was found to be related to local magnitude, M_L, by log M_O = 1.7 M_L + 15.1. The source length vs magnitude relation for the San Andreas system found to be: M_L = 1.9 log L - 6.7. The surface wave envelope parameter AR gives the moment according to log M_O = log AR₃₀₀ + 30.1, and the stress drop, τ, was found to be related to the magnitude by τ = 0.54 M - 2.58. The relation between surface wave magnitude M_S and M_L is proposed to be M_S = 1.7 M_L - 4.1. It is proposed to estimate the relative stress level (and possibly the strength) of a source-region by the amplitude ratio of high-frequency to low-frequency waves. An apparent stress map for Southern California is presented.

Chapter III

Seismic triggering and seismic shaking are proposed as two closely related mechanisms of strain release which explain observations of the character of the P wave generated by the Alaskan earthquake of 1964, and distant fault slippage observed after the Borrego Mountain, California earthquake of 1968. The Alaska, 1964, earthquake is shown to be adequately described as a series of individual rupture events. The first of these events had a body wave magnitude of 6.6 and is considered to have initiated or triggered the whole sequence. The propagation velocity of the disturbance is estimated to be 3.5 km/sec. On the basis of circumstantial evidence it is proposed that the Borrego Mountain, 1968, earthquake caused release of tectonic strain along three active faults at distances of 45 to 75 km from the epicenter. It is suggested that this mechanism of strain release is best described as "seismic shaking."

Chapter IV

The changes of apparent stress with depth are studied in the South American deep seismic zone. For shallow earthquakes the apparent stress is 20 bars on the average, the same as for earthquakes in the Aleutians and on Oceanic Ridges. At depths between 50 and 150 km the apparent stresses are relatively high, approximately 380 bars, and around 600 km depth they are again near 20 bars. The seismic efficiency is estimated to be 0.1. This suggests that the true stress is obtained by multiplying the apparent stress by ten. The variation of apparent stress with depth is explained in terms of the hypothesis of ocean floor consumption.

Synthesis and characterization of 1,1-di-tert-butyldiazene

The synthesis and direct observation of 1,1-di-tert-butyldiazene (16) at -127°C is described. The absorption spectrum of a red solution of 1,1-diazene 16 reveals a structured absorption band with λ max at 506 run (Me_2O, -125°C). The vibrational spacing in S_1 is about 1200 cm^(-1). The excited state of 16 emits weakly with a single maximum at 715 run observed in the fluorescence spectrum (Me_2O:CD_2Cl_2, -196°C). The proton NMR spectrum of 16 occurs as a singlet at 1.41 ppm. Monitoring this NMR absorption at -94^0 ± 2°C shows that 1,1-diazene 16 decomposes with a first-order rate of 1.8 x 10^(-3) sec(-1) to form isobutane, isobutylene and hexarnethylethane. This rate is 10^8 and 10^(34) times faster than the thermal decomposition of the corresponding cis and trans 1,2-di-tert-butyldiazene isomers. The free energy of activation for decomposition of 1,1-diazene 16 is found to be 12.5 ± 0.2 kcal/mol at -94°C which is much lower than the values of 19.1 and 19.4 kcal/lmole calculated at -94°C for N-(2,2,6,6- tetramethylpiperidyl)nitrene (3) and N-(2,2,5,5- tetrarnethylpyrrolidyl)nitrene (4), respectively. This difference between 16 and the cyclic-1,1-diazenes 3 and 4 can be attributed to a large steric interaction between the tert-butyl groups in 1,1-diazene 16.

In order to investigate the nature of the singlet-triplet gap in 1,1-diazenes, 2,5-di-tert-butyl-N-pyrrolynitrene (22) was generated but was found to be too reactive towards dimerization to be persistent. In the presence of dimethylsulfoxide, however, N-pyrrolynitrene (22) can be trapped as N-(2,5-di-tert-butyl- N'-pyrrolyl)dimethylsulfoxirnine (38). N-(2,5-di-tert-butyl-N'-pyrrolyl)dimethylsulfoximine (38-d^6) exchanges with free dimethylsulfoxide at 50°C in solution, presumably by generation and retrapping of pyrrolynitrene 22.

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.