Towards understanding the mixing characteristics of turbulent buoyant flows

This work proposes a new simulation methodology in which variable density turbulent flows can be studied in the context of a mixing layer with or without the presence of gravity. Specifically, this methodology is developed to probe the nature of non-buoyantly-driven (i.e. isotropically-driven) or buoyantly-driven mixing deep inside a mixing layer. Numerical forcing methods are incorporated into both the velocity and scalar fields, which extends the length of time over which mixing physics can be studied. The simulation framework is designed to allow for independent variation of four non-dimensional parameters, including the Reynolds, Richardson, Atwood, and Schmidt numbers. Additionally, the governing equations are integrated in such a way to allow for the relative magnitude of buoyant energy production and non-buoyant energy production to be varied.

The computational requirements needed to implement the proposed configuration are presented. They are justified in terms of grid resolution, order of accuracy, and transport scheme. Canonical features of turbulent buoyant flows are reproduced as validation of the proposed methodology. These features include the recovery of isotropic Kolmogorov scales under buoyant and non-buoyant conditions, the recovery of anisotropic one-dimensional energy spectra under buoyant conditions, and the preservation of known statistical distributions in the scalar field, as found in other DNS studies.

This simulation methodology is used to perform a parametric study of turbulent buoyant flows to discern the effects of varying the Reynolds, Richardson, and Atwood numbers on the resulting state of mixing. The effects of the Reynolds and Atwood numbers are isolated by looking at two energy dissipation rate conditions under non-buoyant (variable density) and constant density conditions. The effects of Richardson number are isolated by varying the ratio of buoyant energy production to total energy production from zero (non-buoyant) to one (entirely buoyant) under constant Atwood number, Schmidt number, and energy dissipation rate conditions. It is found that the major differences between non-buoyant and buoyant turbulent flows are contained in the transfer spectrum and longitudinal structure functions, while all other metrics are largely similar (e.g. energy spectra, alignment characteristics of the strain-rate tensor). Also, despite the differences noted between fully buoyant and non-buoyant turbulent fields, the scalar field, in all cases, is unchanged by these. The mixing dynamics in the scalar field are found to be insensitive to the source of turbulent kinetic energy production (non-buoyant vs. buoyant).

Statistical and econometric analysis of the treatment of HIV/AIDS

The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in the United States is constantly changing and evolving, starting from patient zero to now an estimated 650,000 to 900,000 Americans infected. The nature and course of HIV changed dramatically with the introduction of antiretrovirals. This discourse examines many different facets of HIV from the beginning where there wasn't any treatment for HIV until the present era of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). By utilizing statistical analysis of clinical data, this paper examines where we were, where we are and projections as to where treatment of HIV/AIDS is headed.

Chapter Two describes the datasets that were used for the analyses. The primary database utilized was collected by myself from an outpatient HIV clinic. The data included dates from 1984 until the present. The second database was from the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) public dataset. The data from the MACS cover the time between 1984 and October 1992. Comparisons are made between both datasets.

Chapter Three discusses where we were. Before the first anti-HIV drugs (called antiretrovirals) were approved, there was no treatment to slow the progression of HIV. The first generation of antiretrovirals, reverse transcriptase inhibitors such as AZT (zidovudine), DDI (didanosine), DDC (zalcitabine), and D4T (stavudine) provided the first treatment for HIV. The first clinical trials showed that these antiretrovirals had a significant impact on increasing patient survival. The trials also showed that patients on these drugs had increased CD4+ T cell counts. Chapter Three examines the distributions of CD4 T cell counts. The results show that the estimated distributions of CD4 T cell counts are distinctly non-Gaussian. Thus distributional assumptions regarding CD4 T cell counts must be taken, into account when performing analyses with this marker. The results also show the estimated CD4 T cell distributions for each disease stage: asymptomatic, symptomatic and AIDS are non-Gaussian. Interestingly, the distribution of CD4 T cell counts for the asymptomatic period is significantly below that of the CD4 T cell distribution for the uninfected population suggesting that even in patients with no outward symptoms of HIV infection, there exists high levels of immunosuppression.

Chapter Four discusses where we are at present. HIV quickly grew resistant to reverse transcriptase inhibitors which were given sequentially as mono or dual therapy. As resistance grew, the positive effects of the reverse transcriptase inhibitors on CD4 T cell counts and survival dissipated. As the old era faded a new era characterized by a new class of drugs and new technology changed the way that we treat HIV-infected patients. Viral load assays were able to quantify the levels of HIV RNA in the blood. By quantifying the viral load, one now had a faster, more direct way to test antiretroviral regimen efficacy. Protease inhibitors, which attacked a different region of HIV than reverse transcriptase inhibitors, when used in combination with other antiretroviral agents were found to dramatically and significantly reduce the HIV RNA levels in the blood. Patients also experienced significant increases in CD4 T cell counts. For the first time in the epidemic, there was hope. It was hypothesized that with HAART, viral levels could be kept so low that the immune system as measured by CD4 T cell counts would be able to recover. If these viral levels could be kept low enough, it would be possible for the immune system to eradicate the virus. The hypothesis of immune reconstitution, that is bringing CD4 T cell counts up to levels seen in uninfected patients, is tested in Chapter Four. It was found that for these patients, there was not enough of a CD4 T cell increase to be consistent with the hypothesis of immune reconstitution.

In Chapter Five, the effectiveness of long-term HAART is analyzed. Survival analysis was conducted on 213 patients on long-term HAART. The primary endpoint was presence of an AIDS defining illness. A high level of clinical failure, or progression to an endpoint, was found.

Chapter Six yields insights into where we are going. New technology such as viral genotypic testing, that looks at the genetic structure of HIV and determines where mutations have occurred, has shown that HIV is capable of producing resistance mutations that confer multiple drug resistance. This section looks at resistance issues and speculates, ceterus parabis, where the state of HIV is going. This section first addresses viral genotype and the correlates of viral load and disease progression. A second analysis looks at patients who have failed their primary attempts at HAART and subsequent salvage therapy. It was found that salvage regimens, efforts to control viral replication through the administration of different combinations of antiretrovirals, were not effective in 90 percent of the population in controlling viral replication. Thus, primary attempts at therapy offer the best change of viral suppression and delay of disease progression. Documentation of transmission of drug-resistant virus suggests that the public health crisis of HIV is far from over. Drug resistant HIV can sustain the epidemic and hamper our efforts to treat HIV infection. The data presented suggest that the decrease in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV/AIDS is transient. Deaths due to HIV will increase and public health officials must prepare for this eventuality unless new treatments become available. These results also underscore the importance of the vaccine effort.

The final chapter looks at the economic issues related to HIV. The direct and indirect costs of treating HIV/AIDS are very high. For the first time in the epidemic, there exists treatment that can actually slow disease progression. The direct costs for HAART are estimated. It is estimated that the direct lifetime costs for treating each HIV infected patient with HAART is between $353,000 to $598,000 depending on how long HAART prolongs life. If one looks at the incremental cost per year of life saved it is only $101,000. This is comparable with the incremental costs per year of life saved from coronary artery bypass surgery.

Policy makers need to be aware that although HAART can delay disease progression, it is not a cure and HIV is not over. The results presented here suggest that the decreases in the morbidity and mortality due to HIV are transient. Policymakers need to be prepared for the eventual increase in AIDS incidence and mortality. Costs associated with HIV/AIDS are also projected to increase. The cost savings seen recently have been from the dramatic decreases in the incidence of AIDS defining opportunistic infections. As patients who have been on HAART the longest start to progress to AIDS, policymakers and insurance companies will find that the cost of treating HIV/AIDS will increase.

Robot navigation in dense crowds : statistical models and experimental studies of human robot cooperation

This thesis explores the problem of mobile robot navigation in dense human crowds. We begin by considering a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the freezing robot problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing predictive uncertainty by employing higher fidelity individual dynamics models or heuristically limiting the individual predictive covariance to prevent overcautious navigation. We demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the individual predictive uncertainty have little to do with this undesirable navigation behavior. Additionally, we provide evidence that dynamic agents are able to navigate in dense crowds by engaging in joint collision avoidance, cooperatively making room to create feasible trajectories. We accordingly develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a "multiple goal" extension that models the goal driven nature of human decision making. Navigation naturally emerges as a statistic of this distribution.

Most importantly, we empirically validate our models in the Chandler dining hall at Caltech during peak hours, and in the process, carry out the first extensive quantitative study of robot navigation in dense human crowds (collecting data on 488 runs). The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 1 person/m², while a state of the art noncooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than 3 times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people/m². We also show that our noncooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. For inclusive validation purposes, we show that either our non-interacting planner or our reactive planner captures the salient characteristics of nearly any existing dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds.

Finally, we produce a large database of ground truth pedestrian crowd data. We make this ground truth database publicly available for further scientific study of crowd prediction models, learning from demonstration algorithms, and human robot interaction models in general.

Vibrational pooling and constrained equilibration on surfaces

In this thesis, we provide a statistical theory for the vibrational pooling and fluorescence time dependence observed in infrared laser excitation of CO on an NaCl surface. The pooling is seen in experiment and in computer simulations. In the theory, we assume a rapid equilibration of the quanta in the substrate and minimize the free energy subject to the constraint at any time t of a fixed number of vibrational quanta N(t). At low incident intensity, the distribution is limited to one- quantum exchanges with the solid and so the Debye frequency of the solid plays a key role in limiting the range of this one-quantum domain. The resulting inverted vibrational equilibrium population depends only on fundamental parameters of the oscillator (ω_e and ω_eχ_e) and the surface (ω_D and T). Possible applications and relation to the Treanor gas phase treatment are discussed. Unlike the solid phase system, the gas phase system has no Debye-constraining maximum. We discuss the possible distributions for arbitrary N-conserving diatom-surface pairs, and include application to H:Si(111) as an example.

Computations are presented to describe and analyze the high levels of infrared laser-induced vibrational excitation of a monolayer of absorbed ¹³CO on a NaCl(100) surface. The calculations confirm that, for situations where the Debye frequency limited n domain restriction approximately holds, the vibrational state population deviates from a Boltzmann population linearly in n. Nonetheless, the full kinetic calculation is necessary to capture the result in detail.

We discuss the one-to-one relationship between N and γ and the examine the state space of the new distribution function for varied γ. We derive the Free Energy, F = NγkT − kTln(∑P_n), and effective chemical potential, μn ≈ γkT, for the vibrational pool. We also find the anti correlation of neighbor vibrations leads to an emergent correlation that appears to extend further than nearest neighbor.

New Insights from Aperiodic Variability of Young Stars

Nearly all young stars are variable, with the variability traditionally divided into two classes: periodic variables and aperiodic or "irregular" variables. Periodic variables have been studied extensively, typically using periodograms, while aperiodic variables have received much less attention due to a lack of standard statistical tools. However, aperiodic variability can serve as a powerful probe of young star accretion physics and inner circumstellar disk structure. For my dissertation, I analyzed data from a large-scale, long-term survey of the nearby North America Nebula complex, using Palomar Transient Factory photometric time series collected on a nightly or every few night cadence over several years. This survey is the most thorough exploration of variability in a sample of thousands of young stars over time baselines of days to years, revealing a rich array of lightcurve shapes, amplitudes, and timescales.

I have constrained the timescale distribution of all young variables, periodic and aperiodic, on timescales from less than a day to ~100 days. I have shown that the distribution of timescales for aperiodic variables peaks at a few days, with relatively few (~15%) sources dominated by variability on tens of days or longer. My constraints on aperiodic timescale distributions are based on two new tools, magnitude- vs. time-difference (Δm-Δt) plots and peak-finding plots, for describing aperiodic lightcurves; this thesis provides simulations of their performance and presents recommendations on how to apply them to aperiodic signals in other time series data sets. In addition, I have measured the error introduced into colors or SEDs from combining photometry of variable sources taken at different epochs. These are the first quantitative results to be presented on the distributions in amplitude and time scale for young aperiodic variables, particularly those varying on timescales of weeks to months.

Reconstructing Past Depositional and Diagenetic Processes through Quantitative Stratigraphic Analysis of the Martian Sedimentary Rock Record

High-resolution orbital and in situ observations acquired of the Martian surface during the past two decades provide the opportunity to study the rock record of Mars at an unprecedented level of detail. This dissertation consists of four studies whose common goal is to establish new standards for the quantitative analysis of visible and near-infrared data from the surface of Mars. Through the compilation of global image inventories, application of stratigraphic and sedimentologic statistical methods, and use of laboratory analogs, this dissertation provides insight into the history of past depositional and diagenetic processes on Mars. The first study presents a global inventory of stratified deposits observed in images from the High Resolution Image Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on-board the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter. This work uses the widespread coverage of high-resolution orbital images to make global-scale observations about the processes controlling sediment transport and deposition on Mars. The next chapter presents a study of bed thickness distributions in Martian sedimentary deposits, showing how statistical methods can be used to establish quantitative criteria for evaluating the depositional history of stratified deposits observed in orbital images. The third study tests the ability of spectral mixing models to obtain quantitative mineral abundances from near-infrared reflectance spectra of clay and sulfate mixtures in the laboratory for application to the analysis of orbital spectra of sedimentary deposits on Mars. The final study employs a statistical analysis of the size, shape, and distribution of nodules observed by the Mars Science Laboratory Curiosity rover team in the Sheepbed mudstone at Yellowknife Bay in Gale crater. This analysis is used to evaluate hypotheses for nodule formation and to gain insight into the diagenetic history of an ancient habitable environment on Mars.

Optimal Data Distributions in Machine Learning

In the first part of the thesis we explore three fundamental questions that arise naturally when we conceive a machine learning scenario where the training and test distributions can differ. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we show that in fact mismatched training and test distribution can yield better out-of-sample performance. This optimal performance can be obtained by training with the dual distribution. This optimal training distribution depends on the test distribution set by the problem, but not on the target function that we want to learn. We show how to obtain this distribution in both discrete and continuous input spaces, as well as how to approximate it in a practical scenario. Benefits of using this distribution are exemplified in both synthetic and real data sets.

In order to apply the dual distribution in the supervised learning scenario where the training data set is fixed, it is necessary to use weights to make the sample appear as if it came from the dual distribution. We explore the negative effect that weighting a sample can have. The theoretical decomposition of the use of weights regarding its effect on the out-of-sample error is easy to understand but not actionable in practice, as the quantities involved cannot be computed. Hence, we propose the Targeted Weighting algorithm that determines if, for a given set of weights, the out-of-sample performance will improve or not in a practical setting. This is necessary as the setting assumes there are no labeled points distributed according to the test distribution, only unlabeled samples.

Finally, we propose a new class of matching algorithms that can be used to match the training set to a desired distribution, such as the dual distribution (or the test distribution). These algorithms can be applied to very large datasets, and we show how they lead to improved performance in a large real dataset such as the Netflix dataset. Their computational complexity is the main reason for their advantage over previous algorithms proposed in the covariate shift literature.

In the second part of the thesis we apply Machine Learning to the problem of behavior recognition. We develop a specific behavior classifier to study fly aggression, and we develop a system that allows analyzing behavior in videos of animals, with minimal supervision. The system, which we call CUBA (Caltech Unsupervised Behavior Analysis), allows detecting movemes, actions, and stories from time series describing the position of animals in videos. The method summarizes the data, as well as it provides biologists with a mathematical tool to test new hypotheses. Other benefits of CUBA include finding classifiers for specific behaviors without the need for annotation, as well as providing means to discriminate groups of animals, for example, according to their genetic line.

Quantifying Earthquake Collapse Risk of Tall Steel Moment Frame Buildings Using Rupture-to-Rafters Simulations

There is a sparse number of credible source models available from large-magnitude past earthquakes. A stochastic source model generation algorithm thus becomes necessary for robust risk quantification using scenario earthquakes. We present an algorithm that combines the physics of fault ruptures as imaged in laboratory earthquakes with stress estimates on the fault constrained by field observations to generate stochastic source models for large-magnitude (Mw 6.0-8.0) strike-slip earthquakes. The algorithm is validated through a statistical comparison of synthetic ground motion histories from a stochastically generated source model for a magnitude 7.90 earthquake and a kinematic finite-source inversion of an equivalent magnitude past earthquake on a geometrically similar fault. The synthetic dataset comprises of three-component ground motion waveforms, computed at 636 sites in southern California, for ten hypothetical rupture scenarios (five hypocenters, each with two rupture directions) on the southern San Andreas fault. A similar validation exercise is conducted for a magnitude 6.0 earthquake, the lower magnitude limit for the algorithm. Additionally, ground motions from the Mw7.9 earthquake simulations are compared against predictions by the Campbell-Bozorgnia NGA relation as well as the ShakeOut scenario earthquake. The algorithm is then applied to generate fifty source models for a hypothetical magnitude 7.9 earthquake originating at Parkfield, with rupture propagating from north to south (towards Wrightwood), similar to the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake. Using the spectral element method, three-component ground motion waveforms are computed in the Los Angeles basin for each scenario earthquake and the sensitivity of ground shaking intensity to seismic source parameters (such as the percentage of asperity area relative to the fault area, rupture speed, and risetime) is studied.

Under plausible San Andreas fault earthquakes in the next 30 years, modeled using the stochastic source algorithm, the performance of two 18-story steel moment frame buildings (UBC 1982 and 1997 designs) in southern California is quantified. The approach integrates rupture-to-rafters simulations into the PEER performance based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework. Using stochastic sources and computational seismic wave propagation, three-component ground motion histories at 636 sites in southern California are generated for sixty scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The ruptures, with moment magnitudes in the range of 6.0-8.0, are assumed to occur at five locations on the southern section of the fault. Two unilateral rupture propagation directions are considered. The 30-year probabilities of all plausible ruptures in this magnitude range and in that section of the fault, as forecast by the United States Geological Survey, are distributed among these 60 earthquakes based on proximity and moment release. The response of the two 18-story buildings hypothetically located at each of the 636 sites under 3-component shaking from all 60 events is computed using 3-D nonlinear time-history analysis. Using these results, the probability of the structural response exceeding Immediate Occupancy (IO), Life-Safety (LS), and Collapse Prevention (CP) performance levels under San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next thirty years is evaluated.

Furthermore, the conditional and marginal probability distributions of peak ground velocity (PGV) and displacement (PGD) in Los Angeles and surrounding basins due to earthquakes occurring primarily on the mid-section of southern San Andreas fault are determined using Bayesian model class identification. Simulated ground motions at sites within 55-75km from the source from a suite of 60 earthquakes (Mw 6.0 − 8.0) primarily rupturing mid-section of San Andreas fault are considered for PGV and PGD data.

Studies of response to earthquake ground motion

A study is made of the accuracy of electronic digital computer calculations of ground displacement and response spectra from strong-motion earthquake accelerograms. This involves an investigation of methods of the preparatory reduction of accelerograms into a form useful for the digital computation and of the accuracy of subsequent digital calculations. Various checks are made for both the ground displacement and response spectra results, and it is concluded that the main errors are those involved in digitizing the original record. Differences resulting from various investigators digitizing the same experimental record may become as large as 100% of the maximum computed ground displacements. The spread of the results of ground displacement calculations is greater than that of the response spectra calculations. Standardized methods of adjustment and calculation are recommended, to minimize such errors.

Studies are made of the spread of response spectral values about their mean. The distribution is investigated experimentally by Monte Carlo techniques using an electric analog system with white noise excitation, and histograms are presented indicating the dependence of the distribution on the damping and period of the structure. Approximate distributions are obtained analytically by confirming and extending existing results with accurate digital computer calculations. A comparison of the experimental and analytical approaches indicates good agreement for low damping values where the approximations are valid. A family of distribution curves to be used in conjunction with existing average spectra is presented. The combination of analog and digital computations used with Monte Carlo techniques is a promising approach to the statistical problems of earthquake engineering.

Methods of analysis of very small earthquake ground motion records obtained simultaneously at different sites are discussed. The advantages of Fourier spectrum analysis for certain types of studies and methods of calculation of Fourier spectra are presented. The digitizing and analysis of several earthquake records is described and checks are made of the dependence of results on digitizing procedure, earthquake duration and integration step length. Possible dangers of a direct ratio comparison of Fourier spectra curves are pointed out and the necessity for some type of smoothing procedure before comparison is established. A standard method of analysis for the study of comparative ground motion at different sites is recommended.

Nuclear reactions leading to energy levels of Ar37 and K37

In view of recent interest in the Cl³⁷ (ʋ solar’^e-)Ar³⁷ reaction cross section, information on some aspects of mass 37 nuclei has been obtained using the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions. Ar³⁷ levels have been found at 0, 1.41, 1.62, 2.22, 2.50, 2.80, 3.17, 3.27, 3.53, 3.61, 3.71, (3.75), (3.90), 3.94, 4.02, (4.21), 4.28, 4.32, 4.40, 4.45, 4.58, 4.63, 4.74, 4.89, 4.98, 5.05, 5.10, 5.13, 5.21, 5.35, 5.41, 5.44, 5.54, 5.58, 5.67, 5.77, and 5.85 MeV (the underlined values correspond to previously tabulated levels). The nuclear temperature calculated from the Ar³⁷ level density is 1.4 MeV. Angular distributions of the lowest six levels with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ reaction at E_d = 10 MeV indicate a dominant direct interaction mechanism and the inapplicability of the 2I + 1 rule of the statistical model. Comparison of the spectra obtained with the K³⁹ (d, ∝) Ar³⁷ and Cl³⁵ (He³, p) Ar³⁷ reactions leads to the suggestion that the 5.13-MeV level is the T = 3/2 Cl³⁷ ground state analog. The ground state Q-value of the Ca⁴⁰ (p, ∝) K³⁷ reaction has been measured: -5179 ± 9 keV. This value implies a K³⁷ mass excess of -24804 ± 10 keV. Description of a NMR magnetometer and a sixteen-detector array used in conjunction with a 61-cm double-focusing magnetic spectrometer are included in appendices.

Stationary absolute distributions for chains of infinite order

Let {Ƶ_n}^∞_{n = -∞} be a stochastic process with state space S₁ = {0, 1, …, D – 1}. Such a process is called a chain of infinite order. The transitions of the chain are described by the functions

Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) = Ƥ(Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1} = i ⁽⁰⁾₁, Ƶ_{n - 2} = i ⁽⁰⁾₂, …) (i ɛ S₁), where i⁽⁰⁾ = (i⁽⁰⁾₁, i⁽⁰⁾₂, …) ranges over infinite sequences from S₁. If i⁽ⁿ⁾ = (i⁽ⁿ⁾₁, i⁽ⁿ⁾₂, …) for n = 1, 2,…, then i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾ means that for each k, i⁽ⁿ⁾_k = i⁽⁰⁾_k for all n sufficiently large.

Given functions Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) such that

(i) 0 ≤ Q_i(i⁽⁰) ≤ ξ ˂ 1

(ii)D – 1/Ʃ/i = 0 Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) Ξ 1

(iii) Q_i(i⁽ⁿ⁾) → Q_i(i⁽⁰⁾) whenever i⁽ⁿ⁾ → i⁽⁰⁾,

we prove the existence of a stationary chain of infinite order {Ƶ_n} whose transitions are given by

Ƥ (Ƶ_n = i | Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …) = Q_i(Ƶ_{n - 1}, Ƶ_{n - 2}, …)

With probability 1. The method also yields stationary chains {Ƶ_n} for which (iii) does not hold but whose transition probabilities are, in a sense, “locally Markovian.” These and similar results extend a paper by T.E. Harris [Pac. J. Math., 5 (1955), 707-724].

Included is a new proof of the existence and uniqueness of a stationary absolute distribution for an Nth order Markov chain in which all transitions are possible. This proof allows us to achieve our main results without the use of limit theorem techniques.

The statistical bootstrap model

A review is presented of the statistical bootstrap model of Hagedorn and Frautschi. This model is an attempt to apply the methods of statistical mechanics in high-energy physics, while treating all hadron states (stable or unstable) on an equal footing. A statistical calculation of the resonance spectrum on this basis leads to an exponentially rising level density ρ(m) ~ cm^-3 e^βom at high masses.

In the present work, explicit formulae are given for the asymptotic dependence of the level density on quantum numbers, in various cases. Hamer and Frautschi's model for a realistic hadron spectrum is described.

A statistical model for hadron reactions is then put forward, analogous to the Bohr compound nucleus model in nuclear physics, which makes use of this level density. Some general features of resonance decay are predicted. The model is applied to the process of NN annihilation at rest with overall success, and explains the high final state pion multiplicity, together with the low individual branching ratios into two-body final states, which are characteristic of the process. For more general reactions, the model needs modification to take account of correlation effects. Nevertheless it is capable of explaining the phenomenon of limited transverse momenta, and the exponential decrease in the production frequency of heavy particles with their mass, as shown by Hagedorn. Frautschi's results on "Ericson fluctuations" in hadron physics are outlined briefly. The value of β_o required in all these applications is consistently around [120 MeV]^-1 corresponding to a "resonance volume" whose radius is very close to ƛ_π. The construction of a "multiperipheral cluster model" for high-energy collisions is advocated.