Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Sensor networks for geospatial event detection - theory and applications

This thesis presents theories, analyses, and algorithms for detecting and estimating parameters of geospatial events with today's large, noisy sensor networks. A geospatial event is initiated by a significant change in the state of points in a region in a 3-D space over an interval of time. After the event is initiated it may change the state of points over larger regions and longer periods of time. Networked sensing is a typical approach for geospatial event detection. In contrast to traditional sensor networks comprised of a small number of high quality (and expensive) sensors, trends in personal computing devices and consumer electronics have made it possible to build large, dense networks at a low cost. The changes in sensor capability, network composition, and system constraints call for new models and algorithms suited to the opportunities and challenges of the new generation of sensor networks. This thesis offers a single unifying model and a Bayesian framework for analyzing different types of geospatial events in such noisy sensor networks. It presents algorithms and theories for estimating the speed and accuracy of detecting geospatial events as a function of parameters from both the underlying geospatial system and the sensor network. Furthermore, the thesis addresses network scalability issues by presenting rigorous scalable algorithms for data aggregation for detection. These studies provide insights to the design of networked sensing systems for detecting geospatial events. In addition to providing an overarching framework, this thesis presents theories and experimental results for two very different geospatial problems: detecting earthquakes and hazardous radiation. The general framework is applied to these specific problems, and predictions based on the theories are validated against measurements of systems in the laboratory and in the field.

Part I. A study of the velocity structure of the earth by the use of core phases. Part II. The 1971 San Fernando earthquake series focal mechanisms and tectonics

The initial objective of Part I was to determine the nature of upper mantle discontinuities, the average velocities through the mantle, and differences between mantle structure under continents and oceans by the use of P'dP', the seismic core phase P'P' (PKPPKP) that reflects at depth d in the mantle. In order to accomplish this, it was found necessary to also investigate core phases themselves and their inferences on core structure. P'dP' at both single stations and at the LASA array in Montana indicates that the following zones are candidates for discontinuities with varying degrees of confidence: 800-950 km, weak; 630-670 km, strongest; 500-600 km, strong but interpretation in doubt; 350-415 km, fair; 280-300 km, strong, varying in depth; 100-200 km, strong, varying in depth, may be the bottom of the low-velocity zone. It is estimated that a single station cannot easily discriminate between asymmetric P'P' and P'dP' for lead times of about 30 sec from the main P'P' phase, but the LASA array reduces this uncertainty range to less than 10 sec. The problems of scatter of P'P' main-phase times, mainly due to asymmetric P'P', incorrect identification of the branch, and lack of the proper velocity structure at the velocity point, are avoided and the analysis shows that one-way travel of P waves through oceanic mantle is delayed by 0.65 to 0.95 sec relative to United States mid-continental mantle.

A new P-wave velocity core model is constructed from observed times, dt/dΔ's, and relative amplitudes of P'; the observed times of SKS, SKKS, and PKiKP; and a new mantle-velocity determination by Jordan and Anderson. The new core model is smooth except for a discontinuity at the inner-core boundary determined to be at a radius of 1215 km. Short-period amplitude data do not require the inner core Q to be significantly lower than that of the outer core. Several lines of evidence show that most, if not all, of the arrivals preceding the DF branch of P' at distances shorter than 143° are due to scattering as proposed by Haddon and not due to spherically symmetric discontinuities just above the inner core as previously believed. Calculation of the travel-time distribution of scattered phases and comparison with published data show that the strongest scattering takes place at or near the core-mantle boundary close to the seismic station.

In Part II, the largest events in the San Fernando earthquake series, initiated by the main shock at 14 00 41.8 GMT on February 9, 1971, were chosen for analysis from the first three months of activity, 87 events in all. The initial rupture location coincides with the lower, northernmost edge of the main north-dipping thrust fault and the aftershock distribution. The best focal mechanism fit to the main shock P-wave first motions constrains the fault plane parameters to: strike, N 67° (± 6°) W; dip, 52° (± 3°) NE; rake, 72° (67°-95°) left lateral. Focal mechanisms of the aftershocks clearly outline a downstep of the western edge of the main thrust fault surface along a northeast-trending flexure. Faulting on this downstep is left-lateral strike-slip and dominates the strain release of the aftershock series, which indicates that the downstep limited the main event rupture on the west. The main thrust fault surface dips at about 35° to the northeast at shallow depths and probably steepens to 50° below a depth of 8 km. This steep dip at depth is a characteristic of other thrust faults in the Transverse Ranges and indicates the presence at depth of laterally-varying vertical forces that are probably due to buckling or overriding that causes some upward redirection of a dominant north-south horizontal compression. Two sets of events exhibit normal dip-slip motion with shallow hypocenters and correlate with areas of ground subsidence deduced from gravity data. Several lines of evidence indicate that a horizontal compressional stress in a north or north-northwest direction was added to the stresses in the aftershock area 12 days after the main shock. After this change, events were contained in bursts along the downstep and sequencing within the bursts provides evidence for an earthquake-triggering phenomenon that propagates with speeds of 5 to 15 km/day. Seismicity before the San Fernando series and the mapped structure of the area suggest that the downstep of the main fault surface is not a localized discontinuity but is part of a zone of weakness extending from Point Dume, near Malibu, to Palmdale on the San Andreas fault. This zone is interpreted as a decoupling boundary between crustal blocks that permits them to deform separately in the prevalent crustal-shortening mode of the Transverse Ranges region.

Electron flow through cytochrome P450

The cytochromes P450 (P450s) are a remarkable class of heme enzymes that catalyze the metabolism of xenobiotics and the biosynthesis of signaling molecules. Controlled electron flow into the thiolate-ligated heme active site allows P450s to activate molecular oxygen and hydroxylate aliphatic C–H bonds via the formation of high-valent metal-oxo intermediates (compounds I and II). Due to the reactive nature and short lifetimes of these intermediates, many of the fundamental steps in catalysis have not been observed directly. The Gray group and others have developed photochemical methods, known as “flash-quench,” for triggering electron transfer (ET) and generating redox intermediates in proteins in the absence of native ET partners. Photo-triggering affords a high degree of temporal precision for the gating of an ET event; the initial ET and subsequent reactions can be monitored on the nanosecond-to-second timescale using transient absorption (TA) spectroscopies. Chapter 1 catalogues critical aspects of P450 structure and mechanism, including the native pathway for formation of compound I, and outlines the development of photochemical processes that can be used to artificially trigger ET in proteins. Chapters 2 and 3 describe the development of these photochemical methods to establish electronic communication between a photosensitizer and the buried P450 heme. Chapter 2 describes the design and characterization of a Ru-P450-BM3 conjugate containing a ruthenium photosensitizer covalently tethered to the P450 surface, and nanosecond-to-second kinetics of the photo-triggered ET event are presented. By analyzing data at multiple wavelengths, we have identified the formation of multiple ET intermediates, including the catalytically relevant compound II; this intermediate is generated by oxidation of a bound water molecule in the ferric resting state enzyme. The work in Chapter 3 probes the role of a tryptophan residue situated between the photosensitizer and heme in the aforementioned Ru-P450 BM3 conjugate. Replacement of this tryptophan with histidine does not perturb the P450 structure, yet it completely eliminates the ET reactivity described in Chapter 2. The presence of an analogous tryptophan in Ru-P450 CYP119 conjugates also is necessary for observing oxidative ET, but the yield of heme oxidation is lower. Chapter 4 offers a basic description of the theoretical underpinnings required to analyze ET. Single-step ET theory is first presented, followed by extensions to multistep ET: electron “hopping.” The generation of “hopping maps” and use of a hopping map program to analyze the rate advantage of hopping over single-step ET is described, beginning with an established rhenium-tryptophan-azurin hopping system. This ET analysis is then applied to the Ru-tryptophan-P450 systems described in Chapter 2; this strongly supports the presence of hopping in Ru-P450 conjugates. Chapter 5 explores the implementation of flash-quench and other phototriggered methods to examine the native reductive ET and gas binding events that activate molecular oxygen. In particular, TA kinetics that demonstrate heme reduction on the microsecond timescale for four Ru-P450 conjugates are presented. In addition, we implement laser flash-photolysis of P450 ferrous–CO to study the rates of CO rebinding in the thermophilic P450 CYP119 at variable temperature. Chapter 6 describes the development and implementation of air-sensitive potentiometric redox titrations to determine the solution reduction potentials of a series of P450 BM3 mutants, which were designed for non-native cyclopropanation of styrene in vivo. An important conclusion from this work is that substitution of the axial cysteine for serine shifts the wild type reduction potential positive by 130 mV, facilitating reduction by biological redox cofactors in the presence of poorly-bound substrates. While this mutation abolishes oxygenation activity, these mutants are capable of catalyzing the cyclopropanation of styrene, even within the confines of an E. coli cell. Four appendices are also provided, including photochemical heme oxidation in ruthenium-modified nitric oxide synthase (Appendix A), general protocols (Appendix B), Chapter-specific notes (Appendix C) and Matlab scripts used for data analysis (Appendix D).

Conduction through thin titanium dioxide films

Conduction through TiO₂ films of thickness 100 to 450 Å have been investigated. The samples were prepared by either anodization of Ti evaporation of TiO₂, with Au or Al evaporated for contacts. The anodized samples exhibited considerable hysteresis due to electrical forming, however it was possible to avoid this problem with the evaporated samples from which complete sets of experimental results were obtained and used in the analysis. Electrical measurements included: the dependence of current and capacitance on dc voltage and temperature; the dependence of capacitance and conductance on frequency and temperature; and transient measurements of current and capacitance. A thick (3000 Å) evaporated TiO₂ film was used for measuring the dielectric constant (27.5) and the optical dispersion, the latter being similar to that for rutile. An electron transmission diffraction pattern of a evaporated film indicated an essentially amorphous structure with a short range order that could be related to rutile. Photoresponse measurements indicated the same band gap of about 3 ev for anodized and evaporated films and reduced rutile crystals and gave the barrier energies at the contacts.

The results are interpreted in a self consistent manner by considering the effect of a large impurity concentration in the films and a correspondingly large ionic space charge. The resulting potential profile in the oxide film leads to a thermally assisted tunneling process between the contacts and the interior of the oxide. A general relation is derived for the steady state current through structures of this kind. This in turn is expressed quantitatively for each of two possible limiting types of impurity distributions, where one type gives barriers of an exponential shape and leads to quantitative predictions in c lose agreement with the experimental results. For films somewhat greater than 100 Å, the theory is formulated essentially in terms of only the independently measured barrier energies and a characteristic parameter of the oxide that depends primarily on the maximum impurity concentration at the contacts. A single value of this parameter gives consistent agreement with the experimentally observed dependence of both current and capacitance on dc voltage and temperature, with the maximum impurity concentration found to be approximately the saturation concentration quoted for rutile. This explains the relative insensitivity of the electrical properties of the films on the exact conditions of formation.

Synthetic Circuits for Feedback and Detection in Bacteria

Synthetic biology, by co-opting molecular machinery from existing organisms, can be used as a tool for building new genetic systems from scratch, for understanding natural networks through perturbation, or for hybrid circuits that piggy-back on existing cellular infrastructure. Although the toolbox for genetic circuits has greatly expanded in recent years, it is still difficult to separate the circuit function from its specific molecular implementation. In this thesis, we discuss the function-driven design of two synthetic circuit modules, and use mathematical models to understand the fundamental limits of circuit topology versus operating regimes as determined by the specific molecular implementation. First, we describe a protein concentration tracker circuit that sets the concentration of an output protein relative to the concentration of a reference protein. The functionality of this circuit relies on a single negative feedback loop that is implemented via small programmable protein scaffold domains. We build a mass-action model to understand the relevant timescales of the tracking behavior and how the input/output ratios and circuit gain might be tuned with circuit components. Second, we design an event detector circuit with permanent genetic memory that can record order and timing between two chemical events. This circuit was implemented using bacteriophage integrases that recombine specific segments of DNA in response to chemical inputs. We simulate expected population-level outcomes using a stochastic Markov-chain model, and investigate how inferences on past events can be made from differences between single-cell and population-level responses. Additionally, we present some preliminary investigations on spatial patterning using the event detector circuit as well as the design of stationary phase promoters for growth-phase dependent activation. These results advance our understanding of synthetic gene circuits, and contribute towards the use of circuit modules as building blocks for larger and more complex synthetic networks.

Cosmic Explosions: Observations Of Infant Hydrogen-Free Supernovae Towards An Understanding Of Their Parent Systems

Radiation in the first days of supernova explosions contains rich information about physical properties of the exploding stars. In the past three years, I used the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory to conduct one-day cadence surveys, in order to systematically search for infant supernovae. I show that the one-day cadences in these surveys were strictly controlled, that the realtime image subtraction pipeline managed to deliver transient candidates within ten minutes of images being taken, and that we were able to undertake follow-up observations with a variety of telescopes within hours of transients being discovered. So far iPTF has discovered over a hundred supernovae within a few days of explosions, forty-nine of which were spectroscopically classified within twenty-four hours of discovery.

Our observations of infant Type Ia supernovae provide evidence for both the single-degenerate and double-degenerate progenitor channels. On the one hand, a low-velocity Type Ia supernova iPTF14atg revealed a strong ultraviolet pulse within four days of its explosion. I show that the pulse is consistent with the expected emission produced by collision between the supernova ejecta and a companion star, providing direct evidence for the single degenerate channel. By comparing the distinct early-phase light curves of iPTF14atg to an otherwise similar event iPTF14dpk, I show that the viewing angle dependence of the supernova-companion collision signature is probably responsible to the difference of the early light curves. I also show evidence for a dark period between the supernova explosion and the first light of the radioactively-powered light curve. On the other hand, a peculiar Type Ia supernova iPTF13asv revealed strong near-UV emission and absence of iron in the spectra within the first two weeks of explosion, suggesting a stratified ejecta structure with iron group elements confined to the slow-moving part of the ejecta. With its total ejecta mass estimated to exceed the Chandrasekhar limit, I show that the stratification and large mass of the ejecta favor the double-degenerate channel.

In a separate approach, iPTF found the first progenitor system of a Type Ib supernova iPTF13bvn in the pre-explosion HST archival mages. Independently, I used the early-phase optical observations of this supernova to constrain its progenitor radius to be no larger than several solar radii. I also used its early radio detections to derive a mass loss rate of 3e-5 solar mass per year for the progenitor right before the supernova explosion. These constraints on the physical properties of the iPTF13bvn progenitor provide a comprehensive data set to test Type Ib supernova theories. A recent HST revisit to the iPTF13bvn site two years after the supernova explosion has confirmed the progenitor system.

Moving forward, the next frontier in this area is to extend these single-object analyses to a large sample of infant supernovae. The upcoming Zwicky Transient Facility with its fast survey speed, which is expected to find one infant supernova every night, is well positioned to carry out this task.