A hybrid-parallel framework for the nonlinear seismic analysis of very tall buildings

FRAME3D, a program for the nonlinear seismic analysis of steel structures, has previously been used to study the collapse mechanisms of steel buildings up to 20 stories tall. The present thesis is inspired by the need to conduct similar analysis for much taller structures. It improves FRAME3D in two primary ways.

First, FRAME3D is revised to address specific nonlinear situations involving large displacement/rotation increments, the backup-subdivide algorithm, element failure, and extremely narrow joint hysteresis. The revisions result in superior convergence capabilities when modeling earthquake-induced collapse. The material model of a steel fiber is also modified to allow for post-rupture compressive strength.

Second, a parallel FRAME3D (PFRAME3D) is developed. The serial code is optimized and then parallelized. A distributed-memory divide-and-conquer approach is used for both the global direct solver and element-state updates. The result is an implicit finite-element hybrid-parallel program that takes advantage of the narrow-band nature of very tall buildings and uses nearest-neighbor-only communication patterns.

Using three structures of varied sized, PFRAME3D is shown to compute reproducible results that agree with that of the optimized 1-core version (displacement time-history response root-mean-squared errors are ~〖10〗^(-5) m) with much less wall time (e.g., a dynamic time-history collapse simulation of a 60-story building is computed in 5.69 hrs with 128 cores—a speedup of 14.7 vs. the optimized 1-core version). The maximum speedups attained are shown to increase with building height (as the total number of cores used also increases), and the parallel framework can be expected to be suitable for buildings taller than the ones presented here.

PFRAME3D is used to analyze a hypothetical 60-story steel moment-frame tube building (fundamental period of 6.16 sec) designed according to the 1994 Uniform Building Code. Dynamic pushover and time-history analyses are conducted. Multi-story shear-band collapse mechanisms are observed around mid-height of the building. The use of closely-spaced columns and deep beams is found to contribute to the building's “somewhat brittle” behavior (ductility ratio ~2.0). Overall building strength is observed to be sensitive to whether a model is fracture-capable.

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary

Seismic structure above and below the core-mantle boundary (CMB) has been studied through use of travel time and waveform analyses of several different seismic wave groups. Anomalous systematic trends in observables document mantle heterogeneity on both large and small scales. Analog and digital data has been utilized, and in many cases the analog data has been optically scanned and digitized prior to analysis.

Differential travel times of S - SKS are shown to be an excellent diagnostic of anomalous lower mantle shear velocity (V s) structure. Wavepath geometries beneath the central Pacific exhibit large S- SKS travel time residuals (up to 10 sec), and are consistent with a large scale 0(1000 km) slower than average V_s region (≥3%). S - SKS times for paths traversing this region exhibit smaller scale patterns and trends 0(100 km) indicating V_s perturbations on many scale lengths. These times are compared to predictions of three tomographically derived aspherical models: MDLSH of Tanimoto [1990], model SH12_WM13 of Suet al. [1992], and model SH.10c.17 of Masters et al. [1992]. Qualitative agreement between the tomographic model predictions and observations is encouraging, varying from fair to good. However, inconsistencies are present and suggest anomalies in the lower mantle of scale length smaller than the present 2000+ km scale resolution of tomographic models. 2-D wave propagation experiments show the importance of inhomogeneous raypaths when considering lateral heterogeneities in the lowermost mantle.

A dataset of waveforms and differential travel times of S, ScS, and the arrival from the D" layer, Scd, provides evidence for a laterally varying V_s velocity discontinuity at the base of the mantle. Two different localized D" regions beneath the central Pacific have been investigated. Predictions from a model having a V_s discontinuity 180 km above the CMB agree well with observations for an eastern mid-Pacific CMB region. This thickness differs from V_s discontinuity thicknesses found in other regions, such as a localized region beneath the western Pacific, which average near 280 km. The "sharpness" of the V_s jump at the top of D", i.e., the depth range over which the V_s increase occurs, is not resolved by our data, and our data can in fact may be modeled equally well by a lower mantle with the increase in V_s at the top of D" occurring over a 100 krn depth range. It is difficult at present to correlate D" thicknesses from this study to overall lower mantle heterogeneity, due to uncertainties in the 3-D models, as well as poor coverage in maps of D" discontinuity thicknesses.

P-wave velocity structure (V_p) at the base of the mantle is explored using the seismic phases SKS and SPdKS. SPdKS is formed when SKS waves at distances around 107° are incident upon the CMB with a slowness that allows for coupling with diffracted P-waves at the base of the mantle. The P-wave diffraction occurs at both the SKS entrance and exit locations of the outer core. SP_dKS arrives slightly later in time than SKS, having a wave path through the mantle and core very close to SKS. The difference time between SKS and SP_dKS strongly depends on V_p at the base of the mantle near SK Score entrance and exit points. Observations from deep focus Fiji-Tonga events recorded by North American stations, and South American events recorded by European and Eurasian stations exhibit anomalously large SP_dKS - SKS difference times. SKS and the later arriving SP_dKS phase are separated by several seconds more than predictions made by 1-D reference models, such as the global average PREM [Dziewonski and Anderson, 1981] model. Models having a pronounced low-velocity zone (5%) in V_p in the bottom 50-100 km of the mantle predict the size of the observed SP_dK S-SKS anomalies. Raypath perturbations from lower mantle V_s structure may also be contributing to the observed anomalies.

Outer core structure is investigated using the family of SmKS (m=2,3,4) seismic waves. SmKS are waves that travel as S-waves in the mantle, P-waves in the core, and reflect (m-1) times on the underside of the CMB, and are well-suited for constraining outermost core V_p structure. This is due to closeness of the mantle paths and also the shallow depth range these waves travel in the outermost core. S3KS - S2KS and S4KS - S3KS differential travel times were measured using the cross-correlation method and compared to those from reflectivity synthetics created from core models of past studies. High quality recordings from a deep focus Java Sea event which sample the outer core beneath the northern Pacific, the Arctic, and northwestern North America (spanning 1/8th of the core's surface area), have SmKS wavepaths that traverse regions where lower mantle heterogeneity is pre- dieted small, and are well-modeled by the PREM core model, with possibly a small V_p decrease (1.5%) in the outermost 50 km of the core. Such a reduction implies chemical stratification in this 50 km zone, though this model feature is not uniquely resolved. Data having wave paths through areas of known D" heterogeneity (±2% and greater), such as the source-side of SmKS lower mantle paths from Fiji-Tonga to Eurasia and Africa, exhibit systematic SmKS differential time anomalies of up to several seconds. 2-D wave propagation experiments demonstrate how large scale lower mantle velocity perturbations can explain long wavelength behavior of such anomalous SmKS times. When improperly accounted for, lower mantle heterogeneity maps directly into core structure. Raypaths departing from homogeneity play an important role in producing SmKS anomalies. The existence of outermost core heterogeneity is difficult to resolve at present due to uncertainties in global lower mantle structure. Resolving a one-dimensional chemically stratified outermost core also remains difficult due to the same uncertainties. Restricting study to higher multiples of SmKS (m=2,3,4) can help reduce the affect of mantle heterogeneity due to the closeness of the mantle legs of the wavepaths. SmKS waves are ideal in providing additional information on the details of lower mantle heterogeneity.

Effect of nonuniform seismic input on arch dams

Standard earthquake analyses of civil engineering structures use uniform ground motions even though considerable variations in both amplitude and phase can occur along the foundation interface for long-span bridges and large dams. The objective of this thesis is to quantify the effect that these nonuniformities have on the structural response.

The nonuniform, free-field motions of the foundation interface are assumed to be caused by incident plane body waves. The medium in which these waves travel is a linear, elastic half-space containing a canyon of uniform cross section in which the structure is placed. The solutions for the free-field motions that are due to incident SH, P and SV waves are calculated using the boundary element method.

An analysis of Pacoima (arch) dam located near Los Angeles, California, is performed for both uniform and nonuniform excitations. The important effect of nonuniformities in the free-field motions, sometimes leading to a decrease in the dam response and sometimes to an increase, is quantified.

Characterization of diverse megathrust fault behavior related to seismic supercycles, Mentawai Islands, Sumatra

Long paleoseismic histories are necessary for understanding the full range of behavior of faults, as the most destructive events often have recurrence intervals longer than local recorded history. The Sunda megathrust, the interface along which the Australian plate subducts beneath Southeast Asia, provides an ideal natural laboratory for determining a detailed paleoseismic history over many seismic cycles. The outer-arc islands above the seismogenic portion of the megathrust cyclically rise and subside in response to processes on the underlying megathrust, providing uncommonly good illumination of megathrust behavior. Furthermore, the growth histories of coral microatolls, which record tectonic uplift and subsidence via relative sea level, can be used to investigate the detailed coseismic and interseismic deformation patterns. One particularly interesting area is the Mentawai segment of the megathrust, which has been shown to characteristically fail in a series of ruptures over decades, rather than a single end-to-end rupture. This behavior has been termed a seismic “supercycle.” Prior to the current rupture sequence, which began in 2007, the segment previously ruptured during the 14th century, the late 16th to late 17th century, and most recently during historical earthquakes in 1797 and 1833. In this study, we examine each of these previous supercycles in turn.

First, we expand upon previous analysis of the 1797–1833 rupture sequence with a comprehensive review of previously published coral microatoll data and the addition of a significant amount of new data. We present detailed maps of coseismic uplift during the two great earthquakes and of interseismic deformation during the periods 1755–1833 and 1950–1997 and models of the corresponding slip and coupling on the underlying megathrust. We derive magnitudes of Mw 8.7–9.0 for the two historical earthquakes, and determine that the 1797 earthquake fundamentally changed the state of coupling on the fault for decades afterward. We conclude that while major earthquakes generally do not involve rupture of the entire Mentawai segment, they undoubtedly influence the progression of subsequent ruptures, even beyond their own rupture area. This concept is of vital importance for monitoring and forecasting the progression of the modern rupture sequence.

Turning our attention to the 14th century, we present evidence of a shallow slip event in approximately A.D. 1314, which preceded the “conventional” megathrust rupture sequence. We calculate a suite of slip models, slightly deeper and/or larger than the 2010 Pagai Islands earthquake, that are consistent with the large amount of subsidence recorded at our study site. Sea-level records from older coral microatolls suggest that these events occur at least once every millennium, but likely far less frequently than their great downdip neighbors. The revelation that shallow slip events are important contributors to the seismic cycle of the Mentawai segment further complicates our understanding of this subduction megathrust and our assessment of the region’s exposure to seismic and tsunami hazards.

Finally, we present an outline of the complex intervening rupture sequence that took place in the 16th and 17th centuries, which involved at least five distinct uplift events. We conclude that each of the supercycles had unique features, and all of the types of fault behavior we observe are consistent with highly heterogeneous frictional properties of the megathrust beneath the south-central Mentawai Islands. We conclude that the heterogeneous distribution of asperities produces terminations and overlap zones between fault ruptures, resulting in the seismic “supercycle” phenomenon.

Seismic reflection experiments imaging the physical nature of crustal structures in southern California

Seismic reflection methods have been extensively used to probe the Earth's crust and suggest the nature of its formative processes. The analysis of multi-offset seismic reflection data extends the technique from a reconnaissance method to a powerful scientific tool that can be applied to test specific hypotheses. The treatment of reflections at multiple offsets becomes tractable if the assumptions of high-frequency rays are valid for the problem being considered. Their validity can be tested by applying the methods of analysis to full wave synthetics.

Three studies illustrate the application of these principles to investigations of the nature of the crust in southern California. A survey shot by the COCORP consortium in 1977 across the San Andreas fault near Parkfield revealed events in the record sections whose arrival time decreased with offset. The reflectors generating these events are imaged using a multi-offset three-dimensional Kirchhoff migration. Migrations of full wave acoustic synthetics having the same limitations in geometric coverage as the field survey demonstrate the utility of this back projection process for imaging. The migrated depth sections show the locations of the major physical boundaries of the San Andreas fault zone. The zone is bounded on the southwest by a near-vertical fault juxtaposing a Tertiary sedimentary section against uplifted crystalline rocks of the fault zone block. On the northeast, the fault zone is bounded by a fault dipping into the San Andreas, which includes slices of serpentinized ultramafics, intersecting it at 3 km depth. These interpretations can be made despite complications introduced by lateral heterogeneities.

In 1985 the Calcrust consortium designed a survey in the eastern Mojave desert to image structures in both the shallow and the deep crust. Preliminary field experiments showed that the major geophysical acquisition problem to be solved was the poor penetration of seismic energy through a low-velocity surface layer. Its effects could be mitigated through special acquisition and processing techniques. Data obtained from industry showed that quality data could be obtained from areas having a deeper, older sedimentary cover, causing a re-definition of the geologic objectives. Long offset stationary arrays were designed to provide reversed, wider angle coverage of the deep crust over parts of the survey. The preliminary field tests and constant monitoring of data quality and parameter adjustment allowed 108 km of excellent crustal data to be obtained.

This dataset, along with two others from the central and western Mojave, was used to constrain rock properties and the physical condition of the crust. The multi-offset analysis proceeded in two steps. First, an increase in reflection peak frequency with offset is indicative of a thinly layered reflector. The thickness and velocity contrast of the layering can be calculated from the spectral dispersion, to discriminate between structures resulting from broad scale or local effects. Second, the amplitude effects at different offsets of P-P scattering from weak elastic heterogeneities indicate whether the signs of the changes in density, rigidity, and Lame's parameter at the reflector agree or are opposed. The effects of reflection generation and propagation in a heterogeneous, anisotropic crust were contained by the design of the experiment and the simplicity of the observed amplitude and frequency trends. Multi-offset spectra and amplitude trend stacks of the three Mojave Desert datasets suggest that the most reflective structures in the middle crust are strong Poisson's ratio (σ) contrasts. Porous zones or the juxtaposition of units of mutually distant origin are indicated. Heterogeneities in σ increase towards the top of a basal crustal zone at ~22 km depth. The transition to the basal zone and to the mantle include increases in σ. The Moho itself includes ~400 m layering having a velocity higher than that of the uppermost mantle. The Moho maintains the same configuration across the Mojave despite 5 km of crustal thinning near the Colorado River. This indicates that Miocene extension there either thinned just the basal zone, or that the basal zone developed regionally after the extensional event.

On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Seismic structure along transitions from flat to normal subduction: central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan

The fine-scale seismic structure of the central Mexico, southern Peru, and southwest Japan subduction zones is studied using intraslab earthquakes recorded by temporary and permanent regional seismic arrays. The morphology of the transition from flat to normal subduction is explored in central Mexico and southern Peru, while in southwest Japan the spatial coincidence of a thin ultra-slow velocity layer (USL) atop the flat slab with locations of slow slip events (SSEs) is explored. This USL is also observed in central Mexico and southern Peru, where its lateral extent is used as one constraint on the nature of the flat-to-normal transitions.

In western central Mexico, I find an edge to this USL which is coincident with the western boundary of the projected Orozco Fracture Zone (OFZ) region. Forward modeling of the 2D structure of the subducted Cocos plate using a finite-difference algorithm provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure in this region and confirms the location of the USL edge. I propose that the Cocos slab is currently fragmenting into a North Cocos plate and a South Cocos plate along the projection of the OFZ, by a process analogous to that which occurred when the Rivera plate separated from the proto-Cocos plate 10 Ma.

In eastern central Mexico, observations of a sharp transition in slab dip near the abrupt end of the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB) suggest a possible slab tear located within the subducted South Cocos plate. The eastern lateral extent of the USL is found to be coincident with these features and with the western boundary of a zone of decreased seismicity, indicating a change in structure which I interpret as evidence of a possible tear. Analysis of intraslab seismicity patterns and focal mechanism orientations and faulting types provides further support for a possible tear in the South Cocos slab. This potential tear, together with the tear along the projection of the OFZ to the northwest, indicates a slab rollback mechanism in which separate slab segments move independently, allowing for mantle flow between the segments.

In southern Peru, observations of a gradual increase in slab dip coupled with a lack of any gaps or vertical offsets in the intraslab seismicity suggest a smooth contortion of the slab. Concentrations of focal mechanisms at orientations which are indicative of slab bending are also observed along the change in slab geometry. The lateral extent of the USL atop the horizontal Nazca slab is found to be coincident with the margin of the projected linear continuation of the subducting Nazca Ridge, implying a causal relationship, but not a slab tear. Waveform modeling of the 2D structure in southern Peru provides constraints on the velocity and geometry of the slab’s seismic structure and confirms the absence of any tears in the slab.

In southwest Japan, I estimate the location of a possible USL along the Philippine Sea slab surface and find this region of low velocity to be coincident with locations of SSEs that have occurred in this region. I interpret the source of the possible USL in this region as fluids dehydrated from the subducting plate, forming a high pore-fluid pressure layer, which would be expected to decrease the coupling on the plate interface and promote SSEs.

Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Structural Design under Seismic Risk Using Multiple Performance Objectives

Structural design is a decision-making process in which a wide spectrum of requirements, expectations, and concerns needs to be properly addressed. Engineering design criteria are considered together with societal and client preferences, and most of these design objectives are affected by the uncertainties surrounding a design. Therefore, realistic design frameworks must be able to handle multiple performance objectives and incorporate uncertainties from numerous sources into the process.

In this study, a multi-criteria based design framework for structural design under seismic risk is explored. The emphasis is on reliability-based performance objectives and their interaction with economic objectives. The framework has analysis, evaluation, and revision stages. In the probabilistic response analysis, seismic loading uncertainties as well as modeling uncertainties are incorporated. For evaluation, two approaches are suggested: one based on preference aggregation and the other based on socio-economics. Both implementations of the general framework are illustrated with simple but informative design examples to explore the basic features of the framework.

The first approach uses concepts similar to those found in multi-criteria decision theory, and directly combines reliability-based objectives with others. This approach is implemented in a single-stage design procedure. In the socio-economics based approach, a two-stage design procedure is recommended in which societal preferences are treated through reliability-based engineering performance measures, but emphasis is also given to economic objectives because these are especially important to the structural designer's client. A rational net asset value formulation including losses from uncertain future earthquakes is used to assess the economic performance of a design. A recently developed assembly-based vulnerability analysis is incorporated into the loss estimation.

The presented performance-based design framework allows investigation of various design issues and their impact on a structural design. It is a flexible one that readily allows incorporation of new methods and concepts in seismic hazard specification, structural analysis, and loss estimation.

Toppling Analysis of Precariously Balanced Rocks under Earthquake Excitation

Toppling analysis of a precariously balanced rock (PBR) can provide insights into the nature of ground motion that has not occurred at that location in the past and, by extension, realistic constraints on peak ground motions for use in engineering design. Earlier approaches have targeted simplistic 2-D models of the rock or modeled the rock-pedestal contact using spring-damper assemblies that require re-calibration for each rock. These analyses also assume that the rock does not slide on the pedestal. Here, a method to model PBRs in three dimensions is presented. The 3-D model is created from a point cloud of the rock, the pedestal, and their interface, obtained using Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS). The dynamic response of the model under earthquake excitation is simulated using a rigid body dynamics algorithm. The veracity of this approach is demonstrated by comparisons against data from shake table experiments. Fragility maps for toppling probability of the Echo Cliff PBR and the Pacifico PBR as a function of various ground motion parameters, rock-pedestal interface friction coefficient, and excitation direction are presented. The seismic hazard at these PBR locations is estimated using these maps. Additionally, these maps are used to assess whether the synthetic ground motions at these locations resulting from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault are realistic (toppling would indicate that the ground motions are unrealistically high).