6 resultados para Second-order decision analysis

em CaltechTHESIS


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A description is given of experimental work on the damping of a second order electron plasma wave echo due to velocity space diffusion in a low temperature magnetoplasma. Sufficient precision was obtained to verify the theoretically predicted cubic rather than quadratic or quartic dependence of the damping on exciter separation. Compared to the damping predicted for Coulomb collisions in a thermal plasma in an infinite magnetic field, the magnitude of the damping was approximately as predicted, while the velocity dependence of the damping was weaker than predicted. The discrepancy is consistent with the actual non-Maxwellian electron distribution of the plasma.

In conjunction with the damping work, echo amplitude saturation was measured as a function of the velocity of the electrons contributing to the echo. Good agreement was obtained with the predicted J1 Bessel function amplitude dependence, as well as a demonstration that saturation did not influence the damping results.

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The Hamilton Jacobi Bellman (HJB) equation is central to stochastic optimal control (SOC) theory, yielding the optimal solution to general problems specified by known dynamics and a specified cost functional. Given the assumption of quadratic cost on the control input, it is well known that the HJB reduces to a particular partial differential equation (PDE). While powerful, this reduction is not commonly used as the PDE is of second order, is nonlinear, and examples exist where the problem may not have a solution in a classical sense. Furthermore, each state of the system appears as another dimension of the PDE, giving rise to the curse of dimensionality. Since the number of degrees of freedom required to solve the optimal control problem grows exponentially with dimension, the problem becomes intractable for systems with all but modest dimension.

In the last decade researchers have found that under certain, fairly non-restrictive structural assumptions, the HJB may be transformed into a linear PDE, with an interesting analogue in the discretized domain of Markov Decision Processes (MDP). The work presented in this thesis uses the linearity of this particular form of the HJB PDE to push the computational boundaries of stochastic optimal control.

This is done by crafting together previously disjoint lines of research in computation. The first of these is the use of Sum of Squares (SOS) techniques for synthesis of control policies. A candidate polynomial with variable coefficients is proposed as the solution to the stochastic optimal control problem. An SOS relaxation is then taken to the partial differential constraints, leading to a hierarchy of semidefinite relaxations with improving sub-optimality gap. The resulting approximate solutions are shown to be guaranteed over- and under-approximations for the optimal value function. It is shown that these results extend to arbitrary parabolic and elliptic PDEs, yielding a novel method for Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) of systems governed by partial differential constraints. Domain decomposition techniques are also made available, allowing for such problems to be solved via parallelization and low-order polynomials.

The optimization-based SOS technique is then contrasted with the Separated Representation (SR) approach from the applied mathematics community. The technique allows for systems of equations to be solved through a low-rank decomposition that results in algorithms that scale linearly with dimensionality. Its application in stochastic optimal control allows for previously uncomputable problems to be solved quickly, scaling to such complex systems as the Quadcopter and VTOL aircraft. This technique may be combined with the SOS approach, yielding not only a numerical technique, but also an analytical one that allows for entirely new classes of systems to be studied and for stability properties to be guaranteed.

The analysis of the linear HJB is completed by the study of its implications in application. It is shown that the HJB and a popular technique in robotics, the use of navigation functions, sit on opposite ends of a spectrum of optimization problems, upon which tradeoffs may be made in problem complexity. Analytical solutions to the HJB in these settings are available in simplified domains, yielding guidance towards optimality for approximation schemes. Finally, the use of HJB equations in temporal multi-task planning problems is investigated. It is demonstrated that such problems are reducible to a sequence of SOC problems linked via boundary conditions. The linearity of the PDE allows us to pre-compute control policy primitives and then compose them, at essentially zero cost, to satisfy a complex temporal logic specification.

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The current power grid is on the cusp of modernization due to the emergence of distributed generation and controllable loads, as well as renewable energy. On one hand, distributed and renewable generation is volatile and difficult to dispatch. On the other hand, controllable loads provide significant potential for compensating for the uncertainties. In a future grid where there are thousands or millions of controllable loads and a large portion of the generation comes from volatile sources like wind and solar, distributed control that shifts or reduces the power consumption of electric loads in a reliable and economic way would be highly valuable.

Load control needs to be conducted with network awareness. Otherwise, voltage violations and overloading of circuit devices are likely. To model these effects, network power flows and voltages have to be considered explicitly. However, the physical laws that determine power flows and voltages are nonlinear. Furthermore, while distributed generation and controllable loads are mostly located in distribution networks that are multiphase and radial, most of the power flow studies focus on single-phase networks.

This thesis focuses on distributed load control in multiphase radial distribution networks. In particular, we first study distributed load control without considering network constraints, and then consider network-aware distributed load control.

Distributed implementation of load control is the main challenge if network constraints can be ignored. In this case, we first ignore the uncertainties in renewable generation and load arrivals, and propose a distributed load control algorithm, Algorithm 1, that optimally schedules the deferrable loads to shape the net electricity demand. Deferrable loads refer to loads whose total energy consumption is fixed, but energy usage can be shifted over time in response to network conditions. Algorithm 1 is a distributed gradient decent algorithm, and empirically converges to optimal deferrable load schedules within 15 iterations.

We then extend Algorithm 1 to a real-time setup where deferrable loads arrive over time, and only imprecise predictions about future renewable generation and load are available at the time of decision making. The real-time algorithm Algorithm 2 is based on model-predictive control: Algorithm 2 uses updated predictions on renewable generation as the true values, and computes a pseudo load to simulate future deferrable load. The pseudo load consumes 0 power at the current time step, and its total energy consumption equals the expectation of future deferrable load total energy request.

Network constraints, e.g., transformer loading constraints and voltage regulation constraints, bring significant challenge to the load control problem since power flows and voltages are governed by nonlinear physical laws. Remarkably, distribution networks are usually multiphase and radial. Two approaches are explored to overcome this challenge: one based on convex relaxation and the other that seeks a locally optimal load schedule.

To explore the convex relaxation approach, a novel but equivalent power flow model, the branch flow model, is developed, and a semidefinite programming relaxation, called BFM-SDP, is obtained using the branch flow model. BFM-SDP is mathematically equivalent to a standard convex relaxation proposed in the literature, but numerically is much more stable. Empirical studies show that BFM-SDP is numerically exact for the IEEE 13-, 34-, 37-, 123-bus networks and a real-world 2065-bus network, while the standard convex relaxation is numerically exact for only two of these networks.

Theoretical guarantees on the exactness of convex relaxations are provided for two types of networks: single-phase radial alternative-current (AC) networks, and single-phase mesh direct-current (DC) networks. In particular, for single-phase radial AC networks, we prove that a second-order cone program (SOCP) relaxation is exact if voltage upper bounds are not binding; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact. For single-phase mesh DC networks, we prove that an SOCP relaxation is exact if 1) voltage upper bounds are not binding, or 2) voltage upper bounds are uniform and power injection lower bounds are strictly negative; we also modify the optimal load control problem so that its SOCP relaxation is always exact.

To seek a locally optimal load schedule, a distributed gradient-decent algorithm, Algorithm 9, is proposed. The suboptimality gap of the algorithm is rigorously characterized and close to 0 for practical networks. Furthermore, unlike the convex relaxation approach, Algorithm 9 ensures a feasible solution. The gradients used in Algorithm 9 are estimated based on a linear approximation of the power flow, which is derived with the following assumptions: 1) line losses are negligible; and 2) voltages are reasonably balanced. Both assumptions are satisfied in practical distribution networks. Empirical results show that Algorithm 9 obtains 70+ times speed up over the convex relaxation approach, at the cost of a suboptimality within numerical precision.

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(1) Equation of State of Komatiite

The equation of state (EOS) of a molten komatiite (27 wt% MgO) was detennined in the 5 to 36 GPa pressure range via shock wave compression from 1550°C and 0 bar. Shock wave velocity, US, and particle velocity, UP, in km/s follow the linear relationship US = 3.13(±0.03) + 1.47(±0.03) UP. Based on a calculated density at 1550°C, 0 bar of 2.745±0.005 glee, this US-UP relationship gives the isentropic bulk modulus KS = 27.0 ± 0.6 GPa, and its first and second isentropic pressure derivatives, K'S = 4.9 ± 0.1 and K"S = -0.109 ± 0.003 GPa-1.

The calculated liquidus compression curve agrees within error with the static compression results of Agee and Walker [1988a] to 6 GPa. We detennine that olivine (FO94) will be neutrally buoyant in komatiitic melt of the composition we studied near 8.2 GPa. Clinopyroxene would also be neutrally buoyant near this pressure. Liquidus garnet-majorite may be less dense than this komatiitic liquid in the 20-24 GPa interval, however pyropic-garnet and perovskite phases are denser than this komatiitic liquid in their respective liquidus pressure intervals to 36 GPa. Liquidus perovskite may be neutrally buoyant near 70 GPa.

At 40 GPa, the density of shock-compressed molten komatiite would be approximately equal to the calculated density of an equivalent mixture of dense solid oxide components. This observation supports the model of Rigden et al. [1989] for compressibilities of liquid oxide components. Using their theoretical EOS for liquid forsterite and fayalite, we calculate the densities of a spectrum of melts from basaltic through peridotitic that are related to the experimentally studied komatiitic liquid by addition or subtraction of olivine. At low pressure, olivine fractionation lowers the density of basic magmas, but above 14 GPa this trend is reversed. All of these basic to ultrabasic liquids are predicted to have similar densities at 14 GPa, and this density is approximately equal to the bulk (PREM) mantle. This suggests that melts derived from a peridotitic mantle may be inhibited from ascending from depths greater than 400 km.

The EOS of ultrabasic magmas was used to model adiabatic melting in a peridotitic mantle. If komatiites are formed by >15% partial melting of a peridotitic mantle, then komatiites generated by adiabatic melting come from source regions in the lower transition zone (≈500-670 km) or the lower mantle (>670 km). The great depth of incipient melting implied by this model, and the melt density constraint mentioned above, suggest that komatiitic volcanism may be gravitationally hindered. Although komatiitic magmas are thought to separate from their coexisting crystals at a temperature =200°C greater than that for modern MORBs, their ultimate sources are predicted to be diapirs that, if adiabatically decompressed from initially solid mantle, were more than 700°C hotter than the sources of MORBs and derived from great depth.

We considered the evolution of an initially molten mantle, i.e., a magma ocean. Our model considers the thermal structure of the magma ocean, density constraints on crystal segregation, and approximate phase relationships for a nominally chondritic mantle. Crystallization will begin at the core-mantle boundary. Perovskite buoyancy at > 70 GPa may lead to a compositionally stratified lower mantle with iron-enriched mangesiowiistite content increasing with depth. The upper mantle may be depleted in perovskite components. Olivine neutral buoyancy may lead to the formation of a dunite septum in the upper mantle, partitioning the ocean into upper and lower reservoirs, but this septum must be permeable.

(2) Viscosity Measurement with Shock Waves

We have examined in detail the analytical method for measuring shear viscosity from the decay of perturbations on a corrugated shock front The relevance of initial conditions, finite shock amplitude, bulk viscosity, and the sensitivity of the measurements to the shock boundary conditions are discussed. The validity of the viscous perturbation approach is examined by numerically solving the second-order Navier-Stokes equations. These numerical experiments indicate that shock instabilities may occur even when the Kontorovich-D'yakov stability criteria are satisfied. The experimental results for water at 15 GPa are discussed, and it is suggested that the large effective viscosity determined by this method may reflect the existence of ice VII on the Rayleigh path of the Hugoniot This interpretation reconciles the experimental results with estimates and measurements obtained by other means, and is consistent with the relationship of the Hugoniot with the phase diagram for water. Sound waves are generated at 4.8 MHz at in the water experiments at 15 GPa. The existence of anelastic absorption modes near this frequency would also lead to large effective viscosity estimates.

(3) Equation of State of Molybdenum at 1400°C

Shock compression data to 96 GPa for pure molybdenum, initially heated to 1400°C, are presented. Finite strain analysis of the data gives a bulk modulus at 1400°C, K'S. of 244±2 GPa and its pressure derivative, K'OS of 4. A fit of shock velocity to particle velocity gives the coefficients of US = CO+S UP to be CO = 4.77±0.06 km/s and S = 1.43±0.05. From the zero pressure sound speed, CO, a bulk modulus of 232±6 GPa is calculated that is consistent with extrapolation of ultrasonic elasticity measurements. The temperature derivative of the bulk modulus at zero pressure, θKOSθT|P, is approximately -0.012 GPa/K. A thermodynamic model is used to show that the thermodynamic Grüneisen parameter is proportional to the density and independent of temperature. The Mie-Grüneisen equation of state adequately describes the high temperature behavior of molybdenum under the present range of shock loading conditions.

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The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is used to develop a general method for finding the spectral density for a class of randomly excited first order systems. This class consists of systems satisfying stochastic differential equations of form ẋ + f(x) = m/Ʃ/j = 1 hj(x)nj(t) where f and the hj are piecewise linear functions (not necessarily continuous), and the nj are stationary Gaussian white noise. For such systems, it is shown how the Laplace-transformed FP equation can be solved for the transformed transition probability density. By manipulation of the FP equation and its adjoint, a formula is derived for the transformed autocorrelation function in terms of the transformed transition density. From this, the spectral density is readily obtained. The method generalizes that of Caughey and Dienes, J. Appl. Phys., 32.11.

This method is applied to 4 subclasses: (1) m = 1, h1 = const. (forcing function excitation); (2) m = 1, h1 = f (parametric excitation); (3) m = 2, h1 = const., h2 = f, n1 and n2 correlated; (4) the same, uncorrelated. Many special cases, especially in subclass (1), are worked through to obtain explicit formulas for the spectral density, most of which have not been obtained before. Some results are graphed.

Dealing with parametrically excited first order systems leads to two complications. There is some controversy concerning the form of the FP equation involved (see Gray and Caughey, J. Math. Phys., 44.3); and the conditions which apply at irregular points, where the second order coefficient of the FP equation vanishes, are not obvious but require use of the mathematical theory of diffusion processes developed by Feller and others. These points are discussed in the first chapter, relevant results from various sources being summarized and applied. Also discussed is the steady-state density (the limit of the transition density as t → ∞).

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The problem motivating this investigation is that of pure axisymmetric torsion of an elastic shell of revolution. The analysis is carried out within the framework of the three-dimensional linear theory of elastic equilibrium for homogeneous, isotropic solids. The objective is the rigorous estimation of errors involved in the use of approximations based on thin shell theory.

The underlying boundary value problem is one of Neumann type for a second order elliptic operator. A systematic procedure for constructing pointwise estimates for the solution and its first derivatives is given for a general class of second-order elliptic boundary-value problems which includes the torsion problem as a special case.

The method used here rests on the construction of “energy inequalities” and on the subsequent deduction of pointwise estimates from the energy inequalities. This method removes certain drawbacks characteristic of pointwise estimates derived in some investigations of related areas.

Special interest is directed towards thin shells of constant thickness. The method enables us to estimate the error involved in a stress analysis in which the exact solution is replaced by an approximate one, and thus provides us with a means of assessing the quality of approximate solutions for axisymmetric torsion of thin shells.

Finally, the results of the present study are applied to the stress analysis of a circular cylindrical shell, and the quality of stress estimates derived here and those from a previous related publication are discussed.