Essays on economics networks

This thesis belongs to the growing field of economic networks. In particular, we develop three essays in which we study the problem of bargaining, discrete choice representation, and pricing in the context of networked markets. Despite analyzing very different problems, the three essays share the common feature of making use of a network representation to describe the market of interest.

In Chapter 1 we present an analysis of bargaining in networked markets. We make two contributions. First, we characterize market equilibria in a bargaining model, and find that players' equilibrium payoffs coincide with their degree of centrality in the network, as measured by Bonacich's centrality measure. This characterization allows us to map, in a simple way, network structures into market equilibrium outcomes, so that payoffs dispersion in networked markets is driven by players' network positions. Second, we show that the market equilibrium for our model converges to the so called eigenvector centrality measure. We show that the economic condition for reaching convergence is that the players' discount factor goes to one. In particular, we show how the discount factor, the matching technology, and the network structure interact in a very particular way in order to see the eigenvector centrality as the limiting case of our market equilibrium.

We point out that the eigenvector approach is a way of finding the most central or relevant players in terms of the “global” structure of the network, and to pay less attention to patterns that are more “local”. Mathematically, the eigenvector centrality captures the relevance of players in the bargaining process, using the eigenvector associated to the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of a given network. Thus our result may be viewed as an economic justification of the eigenvector approach in the context of bargaining in networked markets.

As an application, we analyze the special case of seller-buyer networks, showing how our framework may be useful for analyzing price dispersion as a function of sellers and buyers' network positions.

Finally, in Chapter 3 we study the problem of price competition and free entry in networked markets subject to congestion effects. In many environments, such as communication networks in which network flows are allocated, or transportation networks in which traffic is directed through the underlying road architecture, congestion plays an important role. In particular, we consider a network with multiple origins and a common destination node, where each link is owned by a firm that sets prices in order to maximize profits, whereas users want to minimize the total cost they face, which is given by the congestion cost plus the prices set by firms. In this environment, we introduce the notion of Markovian traffic equilibrium to establish the existence and uniqueness of a pure strategy price equilibrium, without assuming that the demand functions are concave nor imposing particular functional forms for the latency functions. We derive explicit conditions to guarantee existence and uniqueness of equilibria. Given this existence and uniqueness result, we apply our framework to study entry decisions and welfare, and establish that in congested markets with free entry, the number of firms exceeds the social optimum.

Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Some modified bifurcation problems with application to imperfection sensitivity in buckling

The branching theory of solutions of certain nonlinear elliptic partial differential equations is developed, when the nonlinear term is perturbed from unforced to forced. We find families of branching points and the associated nonisolated solutions which emanate from a bifurcation point of the unforced problem. Nontrivial solution branches are constructed which contain the nonisolated solutions, and the branching is exhibited. An iteration procedure is used to establish the existence of these solutions, and a formal perturbation theory is shown to give asymptotically valid results. The stability of the solutions is examined and certain solution branches are shown to consist of minimal positive solutions. Other solution branches which do not contain branching points are also found in a neighborhood of the bifurcation point.

The qualitative features of branching points and their associated nonisolated solutions are used to obtain useful information about buckling of columns and arches. Global stability characteristics for the buckled equilibrium states of imperfect columns and arches are discussed. Asymptotic expansions for the imperfection sensitive buckling load of a column on a nonlinearly elastic foundation are found and rigorously justified.

A singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem

We consider the following singularly perturbed linear two-point boundary-value problem:

Ly(x) ≡ Ω(ε)D_xy(x) - A(x,ε)y(x) = f(x,ε) 0≤x≤1 (1a)

By ≡ L(ε)y(0) + R(ε)y(1) = g(ε) ε → 0^+ (1b)

Here Ω(ε) is a diagonal matrix whose first m diagonal elements are 1 and last m elements are ε. Aside from reasonable continuity conditions placed on A, L, R, f, g, we assume the lower right mxm principle submatrix of A has no eigenvalues whose real part is zero. Under these assumptions a constructive technique is used to derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a unique solution of (1). These sufficient conditions are used to define when (1) is a regular problem. It is then shown that as ε → 0^+ the solution of a regular problem exists and converges on every closed subinterval of (0,1) to a solution of the reduced problem. The reduced problem consists of the differential equation obtained by formally setting ε equal to zero in (1a) and initial conditions obtained from the boundary conditions (1b). Several examples of regular problems are also considered.

A similar technique is used to derive the properties of the solution of a particular difference scheme used to approximate (1). Under restrictions on the boundary conditions (1b) it is shown that for the stepsize much larger than ε the solution of the difference scheme, when applied to a regular problem, accurately represents the solution of the reduced problem.

Furthermore, the existence of a similarity transformation which block diagonalizes a matrix is presented as well as exponential bounds on certain fundamental solution matrices associated with the problem (1).

Equilibrium in dynamic economic models

The main theme running through these three chapters is that economic agents are often forced to respond to events that are not a direct result of their actions or other agents actions. The optimal response to these shocks will necessarily depend on agents' understanding of how these shocks arise. The economic environment in the first two chapters is analogous to the classic chain store game. In this setting, the addition of unintended trembles by the agents creates an environment better suited to reputation building. The third chapter considers the competitive equilibrium price dynamics in an overlapping generations environment when there are supply and demand shocks.

The first chapter is a game theoretic investigation of a reputation building game. A sequential equilibrium model, called the "error prone agents" model, is developed. In this model, agents believe that all actions are potentially subjected to an error process. Inclusion of this belief into the equilibrium calculation provides for a richer class of reputation building possibilities than when perfect implementation is assumed.

In the second chapter, maximum likelihood estimation is employed to test the consistency of this new model and other models with data from experiments run by other researchers that served as the basis for prominent papers in this field. The alternate models considered are essentially modifications to the standard sequential equilibrium. While some models perform quite well in that the nature of the modification seems to explain deviations from the sequential equilibrium quite well, the degree to which these modifications must be applied shows no consistency across different experimental designs.

The third chapter is a study of price dynamics in an overlapping generations model. It establishes the existence of a unique perfect-foresight competitive equilibrium price path in a pure exchange economy with a finite time horizon when there are arbitrarily many shocks to supply or demand. One main reason for the interest in this equilibrium is that overlapping generations environments are very fruitful for the study of price dynamics, especially in experimental settings. The perfect foresight assumption is an important place to start when examining these environments because it will produce the ex post socially efficient allocation of goods. This characteristic makes this a natural baseline to which other models of price dynamics could be compared.

Mathematical study of complex networks : brain, internet, and power grid

The dissertation is concerned with the mathematical study of various network problems. First, three real-world networks are considered: (i) the human brain network (ii) communication networks, (iii) electric power networks. Although these networks perform very different tasks, they share similar mathematical foundations. The high-level goal is to analyze and/or synthesis each of these systems from a “control and optimization” point of view. After studying these three real-world networks, two abstract network problems are also explored, which are motivated by power systems. The first one is “flow optimization over a flow network” and the second one is “nonlinear optimization over a generalized weighted graph”. The results derived in this dissertation are summarized below.

Brain Networks: Neuroimaging data reveals the coordinated activity of spatially distinct brain regions, which may be represented mathematically as a network of nodes (brain regions) and links (interdependencies). To obtain the brain connectivity network, the graphs associated with the correlation matrix and the inverse covariance matrix—describing marginal and conditional dependencies between brain regions—have been proposed in the literature. A question arises as to whether any of these graphs provides useful information about the brain connectivity. Due to the electrical properties of the brain, this problem will be investigated in the context of electrical circuits. First, we consider an electric circuit model and show that the inverse covariance matrix of the node voltages reveals the topology of the circuit. Second, we study the problem of finding the topology of the circuit based on only measurement. In this case, by assuming that the circuit is hidden inside a black box and only the nodal signals are available for measurement, the aim is to find the topology of the circuit when a limited number of samples are available. For this purpose, we deploy the graphical lasso technique to estimate a sparse inverse covariance matrix. It is shown that the graphical lasso may find most of the circuit topology if the exact covariance matrix is well-conditioned. However, it may fail to work well when this matrix is ill-conditioned. To deal with ill-conditioned matrices, we propose a small modification to the graphical lasso algorithm and demonstrate its performance. Finally, the technique developed in this work will be applied to the resting-state fMRI data of a number of healthy subjects.

Communication Networks: Congestion control techniques aim to adjust the transmission rates of competing users in the Internet in such a way that the network resources are shared efficiently. Despite the progress in the analysis and synthesis of the Internet congestion control, almost all existing fluid models of congestion control assume that every link in the path of a flow observes the original source rate. To address this issue, a more accurate model is derived in this work for the behavior of the network under an arbitrary congestion controller, which takes into account of the effect of buffering (queueing) on data flows. Using this model, it is proved that the well-known Internet congestion control algorithms may no longer be stable for the common pricing schemes, unless a sufficient condition is satisfied. It is also shown that these algorithms are guaranteed to be stable if a new pricing mechanism is used.

Electrical Power Networks: Optimal power flow (OPF) has been one of the most studied problems for power systems since its introduction by Carpentier in 1962. This problem is concerned with finding an optimal operating point of a power network minimizing the total power generation cost subject to network and physical constraints. It is well known that OPF is computationally hard to solve due to the nonlinear interrelation among the optimization variables. The objective is to identify a large class of networks over which every OPF problem can be solved in polynomial time. To this end, a convex relaxation is proposed, which solves the OPF problem exactly for every radial network and every meshed network with a sufficient number of phase shifters, provided power over-delivery is allowed. The concept of “power over-delivery” is equivalent to relaxing the power balance equations to inequality constraints.

Flow Networks: In this part of the dissertation, the minimum-cost flow problem over an arbitrary flow network is considered. In this problem, each node is associated with some possibly unknown injection, each line has two unknown flows at its ends related to each other via a nonlinear function, and all injections and flows need to satisfy certain box constraints. This problem, named generalized network flow (GNF), is highly non-convex due to its nonlinear equality constraints. Under the assumption of monotonicity and convexity of the flow and cost functions, a convex relaxation is proposed, which always finds the optimal injections. A primary application of this work is in the OPF problem. The results of this work on GNF prove that the relaxation on power balance equations (i.e., load over-delivery) is not needed in practice under a very mild angle assumption.

Generalized Weighted Graphs: Motivated by power optimizations, this part aims to find a global optimization technique for a nonlinear optimization defined over a generalized weighted graph. Every edge of this type of graph is associated with a weight set corresponding to the known parameters of the optimization (e.g., the coefficients). The motivation behind this problem is to investigate how the (hidden) structure of a given real/complex valued optimization makes the problem easy to solve, and indeed the generalized weighted graph is introduced to capture the structure of an optimization. Various sufficient conditions are derived, which relate the polynomial-time solvability of different classes of optimization problems to weak properties of the generalized weighted graph such as its topology and the sign definiteness of its weight sets. As an application, it is proved that a broad class of real and complex optimizations over power networks are polynomial-time solvable due to the passivity of transmission lines and transformers.

Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Metasomatism and magmatic assimilation at a gabbro-limestone contact, Christmas Mountains, Big Bend region, Texas

A composite stock of alkaline gabbro and syenite is intrusive into limestone of the Del Carmen, Sue Peake and Santa Elena Formations at the northwest end of the Christmas Mountains. There is abundant evidence of solution of wallrock by magma but nowhere are gabbro and limestone in direct contact. The sequence of lithologies developed across the intrusive contact and across xenoliths is gabbro, pyroxenite, calc-silicate skarn, marble. Pyroxenite is made up of euhedral crystals of titanaugite and sphene in a leucocratic matrix of nepheline, Wollastonite and alkali feldspar. The uneven modal distribution of phases in pyroxenite and the occurrence' of nepheline syenite dikes, intrusive into pyroxenite and skarn, suggest that pyroxenite represents an accumulation of clinopyroxene "cemented" together by late-solidifying residual magma of nepheline syenite composition. Assimilation of limestone by gabbroic magma involves reactions between calcite and magma and/or crystals in equilibrium with magma and crystallization of phases in which the magma is saturated, to supply energy for the solution reaction. Gabbroic magma was saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene at the time of emplacement. The textural and mineralogic features of pyroxenite can be produced by the reaction 2( 1-X) CALCITE + AN_XAB_l-X = (1-X) NEPHELINE+ 2(1-X) WOLLASTONITE+ X ANORTHITE+ 2(1-X) CO₂. Plagioclase in pyroxenite has corroded margins and is rimmed by nepheline, suggestive of resorption by magma. Anorthite and wollastonite enter solid solution in titanaugite. For each mole of calcite dissolved, approximately one mole of clinopyroxene was crystallized. Thus the amount of limestone that may be assimilated is limited by the concentration of potential clinopyroxene in the magma. Wollastonite appears as a phase when magma has been depleted in iron and magnesium by crystallization of titanaugite. The predominance of mafic and ultramafic compositions among contaminated rocks and their restriction to a narrow zone along the intrusive contact provides little evidence for the generation of a significant volume of desilicated magma as a result of limestone assimilation.

Within 60 m of the intrusive contact with the gabbro, nodular chert in the Santa Elena Limestone reacted with the enveloping marble to form spherical nodules of high-temperature calc-silicate minerals. The phases wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, tilleyite and calcite, form a series of sharply-bounded, concentric monomineralic and two-phase shells which record a step-wise decrease in silica content from the core of a nodule to its rim. Mineral zones in the nodules vary 'with distance from the gabbro as follows:

0-5 m CALCITE + SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
5-16 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE ± SPURRITE + RANKINITE + WOLLASTONITE
16-31 m CALCITE + TILLEYITE + WOLLASTONITE
31-60 m CALCITE + WOLLASTONITE
60-plus CALCITE + QUARTZ

The mineral of a one-phase zone is compatible with the phases bounding it on either side but these phases are incompatible in the same volume of P-T-X_CO2.

Growth of a monomineralio zone is initiated by reaction between minerals of adjacent one-phase zones which become unstable with rising temperature to form a thin layer of a new single phase that separates the reactants and is compatible with both of them. Because the mineral of the new zone is in equilibrium with the phases at both of its contacts, gradients in the chemical potentials of the exchangeable components are established across it. Although zone boundaries mark discontinuities in the gradients of bulk composition, two-phase equilibria at the contacts demonstrate that the chemical potentials are continuous. Hence, Ca, Si and CO₂ were redistributed in the growing nodule by diffusion. A monomineralic zone grows at the expense of an adjacent zone by reaction between diffusing components and the mineral of the adjacent zone. Equilibria between two phases at zone boundaries buffers the chemical potentials of the diffusing species. Thus, within a monomineralic zone, the chemical potentials of the diffusing components are controlled external to the local assemblage by the two-phase equilibria at the zone boundaries.

Mineralogically zoned calc-silicate skarn occurs as a narrow band that separates pyroxenite and marble along the intrusive contact and forms a rim on marble xenoliths in gabbro. Skarn consists of melilite or idocrase pseudomorphs of melili te, one or two . stoichiometric calcsilicate phases and accessory Ti-Zr garnet, perovskite and magnetite. The sequence of mineral zones from pyroxenite to marble, defined by a characteristic calc-silicate, is wollastonite, rankinite, spurrite, calcite. Mineral assemblages of adjacent skarn zones are compatible and the set of zones in a skarn band defines a facies type, indicating that the different mineral assemblages represent different bulk compositions recrystallized under identical conditions. The number of phases in each zone is less than the number that might be expected to result from metamorphism of a general bulk composition under conditions of equilibrium, trivariant in P, T and u_CO2. The "special" bulk composition of each zone is controlled by reaction between phases of the zones bounding it on either side. The continuity of the gradients of composition of melilite and garnet solid solutions across the skarn is consistent with the local equilibrium hypothesis and verifies that diffusion was the mechanism of mass transport. The formula proportions of Ti and Zr in garnet from skarn vary antithetically with that of Si Which systematically decreases from pyroxenite to marble. The chemical potential of Si in each skarn zone was controlled by the coexisting stoichiometric calc-silicate phases in the assemblage. Thus the formula proportion of Si in garnet is a direct measure of the chemical potential of Si from point to point in skarn. Reaction between gabbroic magma saturated with plagioclase and clinopyroxene produced nepheline pyroxenite and melilite-wollastonite skarn. The calcsilicate zones result from reaction between calcite and wollastonite to form spurrite and rankinite.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Digested sludge: delineation and modeling for ocean disposal

Experimental work was performed to delineate the system of digested sludge particles and associated trace metals and also to measure the interactions of sludge with seawater. Particle-size and particle number distributions were measured with a Coulter Counter. Number counts in excess of 10¹² particles per liter were found in both the City of Los Angeles Hyperion mesophilic digested sludge and the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (LACSD) digested primary sludge. More than 90 percent of the particles had diameters less than 10 microns.

Total and dissolved trace metals (Ag, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were measured in LACSD sludge. Manganese was the only metal whose dissolved fraction exceeded one percent of the total metal. Sedimentation experiments for several dilutions of LACSD sludge in seawater showed that the sedimentation velocities of the sludge particles decreased as the dilution factor increased. A tenfold increase in dilution shifted the sedimentation velocity distribution by an order of magnitude. Chromium, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn were also followed during sedimentation. To a first approximation these metals behaved like the particles.

Solids and selected trace metals (Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, and Zn) were monitored in oxic mixtures of both Hyperion and LACSD sludges for periods of 10 to 28 days. Less than 10 percent of the filterable solids dissolved or were oxidized. Only Ni was mobilized away from the particles. The majority of the mobilization was complete in less than one day.

The experimental data of this work were combined with oceanographic, biological, and geochemical information to propose and model the discharge of digested sludge to the San Pedro and Santa Monica Basins. A hydraulic computer simulation for a round buoyant jet in a density stratified medium showed that discharges of sludge effluent mixture at depths of 730 m would rise no more than 120 m. Initial jet mixing provided dilution estimates of 450 to 2600. Sedimentation analyses indicated that the solids would reach the sediments within 10 km of the point discharge.

Mass balances on the oxidizable chemical constituents in sludge indicated that the nearly anoxic waters of the basins would become wholly anoxic as a result of proposed discharges. From chemical-equilibrium computer modeling of the sludge digester and dilutions of sludge in anoxic seawater, it was predicted that the chemistry of all trace metals except Cr and Mn will be controlled by the precipitation of metal sulfide solids. This metal speciation held for dilutions up to 3000.

The net environmental impacts of this scheme should be salutary. The trace metals in the sludge should be immobilized in the anaerobic bottom sediments of the basins. Apparently no lifeforms higher than bacteria are there to be disrupted. The proposed deep-water discharges would remove the need for potentially expensive and energy-intensive land disposal alternatives and would end the discharge to the highly productive water near the ocean surface.

Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Development of protein-catalyzed capture (PCC) agents with application to the specific targeting of the E17K Point mutation of Akt1

This thesis describes the expansion and improvement of the iterative in situ click chemistry OBOC peptide library screening technology. Previous work provided a proof-of-concept demonstration that this technique was advantageous for the production of protein-catalyzed capture (PCC) agents that could be used as drop-in replacements for antibodies in a variety of applications. Chapter 2 describes the technology development that was undertaken to optimize this screening process and make it readily available for a wide variety of targets. This optimization is what has allowed for the explosive growth of the PCC agent project over the past few years.

These technology improvements were applied to the discovery of PCC agents specific for single amino acid point mutations in proteins, which have many applications in cancer detection and treatment. Chapter 3 describes the use of a general all-chemical epitope-targeting strategy that can focus PCC agent development directly to a site of interest on a protein surface. This technique utilizes a chemically-synthesized chunk of the protein, called an epitope, substituted with a click handle in combination with the OBOC in situ click chemistry libraries in order to focus ligand development at a site of interest. Specifically, Chapter 3 discusses the use of this technique in developing a PCC agent specific for the E17K mutation of Akt1. Chapter 4 details the expansion of this ligand into a mutation-specific inhibitor, with applications in therapeutics.

Studies in nuclear reactor dynamics : I. The accuracy of point kinetics. II. The effect of delayed neutrons on the spectrum of the group-diffusion operator

This thesis is a theoretical work on the space-time dynamic behavior of a nuclear reactor without feedback. Diffusion theory with G-energy groups is used.

In the first part the accuracy of the point kinetics (lumped-parameter description) model is examined. The fundamental approximation of this model is the splitting of the neutron density into a product of a known function of space and an unknown function of time; then the properties of the system can be averaged in space through the use of appropriate weighting functions; as a result a set of ordinary differential equations is obtained for the description of time behavior. It is clear that changes of the shape of the neutron-density distribution due to space-dependent perturbations are neglected. This results to an error in the eigenvalues and it is to this error that bounds are derived. This is done by using the method of weighted residuals to reduce the original eigenvalue problem to that of a real asymmetric matrix. Then Gershgorin-type theorems .are used to find discs in the complex plane in which the eigenvalues are contained. The radii of the discs depend on the perturbation in a simple manner.

In the second part the effect of delayed neutrons on the eigenvalues of the group-diffusion operator is examined. The delayed neutrons cause a shifting of the prompt-neutron eigenvalue s and the appearance of the delayed eigenvalues. Using a simple perturbation method this shifting is calculated and the delayed eigenvalues are predicted with good accuracy.

Response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency

The response of linear, viscous damped systems to excitations having time-varying frequency is the subject of exact and approximate analyses, which are supplemented by an analog computer study of single degree of freedom system response to excitations having frequencies depending linearly and exponentially on time.

The technique of small perturbations and the methods of stationary phase and saddle-point integration, as well as a novel bounding procedure, are utilized to derive approximate expressions characterizing the system response envelope—particularly near resonances—for the general time-varying excitation frequency.

Descriptive measurements of system resonant behavior recorded during the course of the analog study—maximum response, excitation frequency at which maximum response occurs, and the width of the response peak at the half-power level—are investigated to determine dependence upon natural frequency, damping, and the functional form of the excitation frequency.

The laboratory problem of determining the properties of a physical system from records of its response to excitations of this class is considered, and the transient phenomenon known as “ringing” is treated briefly.

It is shown that system resonant behavior, as portrayed by the above measurements and expressions, is relatively insensitive to the specifics of the excitation frequency-time relation and may be described to good order in terms of parameters combining system properties with the time derivative of excitation frequency evaluated at resonance.

One of these parameters is shown useful for predicting whether or not a given excitation having a time-varying frequency will produce strong or subtle changes in the response envelope of a given system relative to the steady-state response envelope. The parameter is shown, additionally, to be useful for predicting whether or not a particular response record will exhibit the “ringing” phenomenon.

Applications of nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy to the study of medium-sized rings. I. Conformational properties of cycloheptane. II. Conformational properties of cycloöctane

Conformational equilibrium in medium-sized rings has been investigated by the temperature variation of the fluorine-19 n.m.r. spectra of 1, 1-difluorocycloalkanes and various substituted derivatives of them. Inversion has been found to be fast on the n.m.r. time scale at -180˚ for 1, 1-difluorocycloheptane, but slow for 1, 1-difluoro-4, 4-dimethylcycloheptane at -150˚. At low temperature, the latter compound affords a single AB pattern with a chemical-shift difference of 841 cps. which has been interpreted in terms of the twist-chair conformation with the methyl groups on the axis position and the fluorine atoms in the 4-position. At room temperature, the n.m.r. spectrum of 1, 1-difluoro-4-t-butylcycloheptane affords an AB pattern with a chemical-shift difference of 185 cps. The presence of distinct trans and gauche couplings from the adjacent hydrogens has been interpreted to suggest the existence of a single predominant form, the twist chair with the fluorine atoms on the axis position.

Investigation of 1, 1-difluorocycloöctane and 1, 1, 4, 4-tetrafluorocycloöctane has led to the detection of two kinetic processes both having activation energies of 8-10 kcal./mole but quite different A values. In light of these results eleven different conformations of cycloöctane along with a detailed description of the ways in which they may be interconverted are discussed. An interpretation involving the twist-boat conformation rapidly equilibrating through the saddle and the parallel-boat forms at room temperature is compatible with the results.