Deviation from standard inflationary cosmology and the problems in ekpyrosis

There are two competing models of our universe right now. One is Big Bang with inflation cosmology. The other is the cyclic model with ekpyrotic phase in each cycle. This paper is divided into two main parts according to these two models. In the first part, we quantify the potentially observable effects of a small violation of translational invariance during inflation, as characterized by the presence of a preferred point, line, or plane. We explore the imprint such a violation would leave on the cosmic microwave background anisotropy, and provide explicit formulas for the expected amplitudes $\langle a_{lm}a_{l'm'}^*\rangle$ of the spherical-harmonic coefficients. We then provide a model and study the two-point correlation of a massless scalar (the inflaton) when the stress tensor contains the energy density from an infinitely long straight cosmic string in addition to a cosmological constant. Finally, we discuss if inflation can reconcile with the Liouville's theorem as far as the fine-tuning problem is concerned. In the second part, we find several problems in the cyclic/ekpyrotic cosmology. First of all, quantum to classical transition would not happen during an ekpyrotic phase even for superhorizon modes, and therefore the fluctuations cannot be interpreted as classical. This implies the prediction of scale-free power spectrum in ekpyrotic/cyclic universe model requires more inspection. Secondly, we find that the usual mechanism to solve fine-tuning problems is not compatible with eternal universe which contains infinitely many cycles in both direction of time. Therefore, all fine-tuning problems including the flatness problem still asks for an explanation in any generic cyclic models.

Cooperative and market-based solutions to pollution abatement problems

This work concerns itself with the possibility of solutions, both cooperative and market based, to pollution abatement problems. In particular, we are interested in pollutant emissions in Southern California and possible solutions to the abatement problems enumerated in the 1990 Clean Air Act. A tradable pollution permit program has been implemented to reduce emissions, creating property rights associated with various pollutants.

Before we discuss the performance of market-based solutions to LA's pollution woes, we consider the existence of cooperative solutions. In Chapter 2, we examine pollutant emissions as a trans boundary public bad. We show that for a class of environments in which pollution moves in a bi-directional, acyclic manner, there exists a sustainable coalition structure and associated levels of emissions. We do so via a new core concept, one more appropriate to modeling cooperative emissions agreements (and potential defection from them) than the standard definitions.

However, this leaves the question of implementing pollution abatement programs unanswered. While the existence of a cost-effective permit market equilibrium has long been understood, the implementation of such programs has been difficult. The design of Los Angeles' REgional CLean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM) alleviated some of the implementation problems, and in part exacerbated them. For example, it created two overlapping cycles of permits and two zones of permits for different geographic regions. While these design features create a market that allows some measure of regulatory control, they establish a very difficult trading environment with the potential for inefficiency arising from the transactions costs enumerated above and the illiquidity induced by the myriad assets and relatively few participants in this market.

It was with these concerns in mind that the ACE market (Automated Credit Exchange) was designed. The ACE market utilizes an iterated combined-value call market (CV Market). Before discussing the performance of the RECLAIM program in general and the ACE mechanism in particular, we test experimentally whether a portfolio trading mechanism can overcome market illiquidity. Chapter 3 experimentally demonstrates the ability of a portfolio trading mechanism to overcome portfolio rebalancing problems, thereby inducing sufficient liquidity for markets to fully equilibrate.

With experimental evidence in hand, we consider the CV Market's performance in the real world. We find that as the allocation of permits reduces to the level of historical emissions, prices are increasing. As of April of this year, prices are roughly equal to the cost of the Best Available Control Technology (BACT). This took longer than expected, due both to tendencies to mis-report emissions under the old regime, and abatement technology advances encouraged by the program. Vve also find that the ACE market provides liquidity where needed to encourage long-term planning on behalf of polluting facilities.

Baryon number violation beyond the standard model

This thesis describes simple extensions of the standard model with new sources of baryon number violation but no proton decay. The motivation for constructing such theories comes from the shortcomings of the standard model to explain the generation of baryon asymmetry in the universe, and from the absence of experimental evidence for proton decay. However, lack of any direct evidence for baryon number violation in general puts strong bounds on the naturalness of some of those models and favors theories with suppressed baryon number violation below the TeV scale. The initial part of the thesis concentrates on investigating models containing new scalars responsible for baryon number breaking. A model with new color sextet scalars is analyzed in more detail. Apart from generating cosmological baryon number, it gives nontrivial predictions for the neutron-antineutron oscillations, the electric dipole moment of the neutron, and neutral meson mixing. The second model discussed in the thesis contains a new scalar leptoquark. Although this model predicts mainly lepton flavor violation and a nonzero electric dipole moment of the electron, it includes, in its original form, baryon number violating nonrenormalizable dimension-five operators triggering proton decay. Imposing an appropriate discrete symmetry forbids such operators. Finally, a supersymmetric model with gauged baryon and lepton numbers is proposed. It provides a natural explanation for proton stability and predicts lepton number violating processes below the supersymmetry breaking scale, which can be tested at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark matter candidate in this model carries baryon number and can be searched for in direct detection experiments as well. The thesis is completed by constructing and briefly discussing a minimal extension of the standard model with gauged baryon, lepton, and flavor symmetries.

Baryon and lepton numbers in particle physics beyond the standard model

The works presented in this thesis explore a variety of extensions of the standard model of particle physics which are motivated by baryon number (B) and lepton number (L), or some combination thereof. In the standard model, both baryon number and lepton number are accidental global symmetries violated only by non-perturbative weak effects, though the combination B-L is exactly conserved. Although there is currently no evidence for considering these symmetries as fundamental, there are strong phenomenological bounds restricting the existence of new physics violating B or L. In particular, there are strict limits on the lifetime of the proton whose decay would violate baryon number by one unit and lepton number by an odd number of units.

The first paper included in this thesis explores some of the simplest possible extensions of the standard model in which baryon number is violated, but the proton does not decay as a result. The second paper extends this analysis to explore models in which baryon number is conserved, but lepton flavor violation is present. Special attention is given to the processes of μ to e conversion and μ → eγ which are bound by existing experimental limits and relevant to future experiments.

The final two papers explore extensions of the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM) in which both baryon number and lepton number, or the combination B-L, are elevated to the status of being spontaneously broken local symmetries. These models have a rich phenomenology including new collider signatures, stable dark matter candidates, and alternatives to the discrete R-parity symmetry usually built into the MSSM in order to protect against baryon and lepton number violating processes.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.