Markets and microstructure

This document contains three papers examining the microstructure of financial interaction in development and market settings. I first examine the industrial organization of financial exchanges, specifically limit order markets. In this section, I perform a case study of Google stock surrounding a surprising earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009, uncovering parameters that describe information flows and liquidity provision. I then explore the disbursement process for community-driven development projects. This section is game theoretic in nature, using a novel three-player ultimatum structure. I finally develop econometric tools to simulate equilibrium and identify equilibrium models in limit order markets.

In chapter two, I estimate an equilibrium model using limit order data, finding parameters that describe information and liquidity preferences for trading. As a case study, I estimate the model for Google stock surrounding an unexpected good-news earnings announcement in the 3rd quarter of 2009. I find a substantial decrease in asymmetric information prior to the earnings announcement. I also simulate counterfactual dealer markets and find empirical evidence that limit order markets perform more efficiently than do their dealer market counterparts.

In chapter three, I examine Community-Driven Development. Community-Driven Development is considered a tool empowering communities to develop their own aid projects. While evidence has been mixed as to the effectiveness of CDD in achieving disbursement to intended beneficiaries, the literature maintains that local elites generally take control of most programs. I present a three player ultimatum game which describes a potential decentralized aid procurement process. Players successively split a dollar in aid money, and the final player--the targeted community member--decides between whistle blowing or not. Despite the elite capture present in my model, I find conditions under which money reaches targeted recipients. My results describe a perverse possibility in the decentralized aid process which could make detection of elite capture more difficult than previously considered. These processes may reconcile recent empirical work claiming effectiveness of the decentralized aid process with case studies which claim otherwise.

In chapter four, I develop in more depth the empirical and computational means to estimate model parameters in the case study in chapter two. I describe the liquidity supplier problem and equilibrium among those suppliers. I then outline the analytical forms for computing certainty-equivalent utilities for the informed trader. Following this, I describe a recursive algorithm which facilitates computing equilibrium in supply curves. Finally, I outline implementation of the Method of Simulated Moments in this context, focusing on Indirect Inference and formulating the pseudo model.

Vibrational pooling and constrained equilibration on surfaces

In this thesis, we provide a statistical theory for the vibrational pooling and fluorescence time dependence observed in infrared laser excitation of CO on an NaCl surface. The pooling is seen in experiment and in computer simulations. In the theory, we assume a rapid equilibration of the quanta in the substrate and minimize the free energy subject to the constraint at any time t of a fixed number of vibrational quanta N(t). At low incident intensity, the distribution is limited to one- quantum exchanges with the solid and so the Debye frequency of the solid plays a key role in limiting the range of this one-quantum domain. The resulting inverted vibrational equilibrium population depends only on fundamental parameters of the oscillator (ω_e and ω_eχ_e) and the surface (ω_D and T). Possible applications and relation to the Treanor gas phase treatment are discussed. Unlike the solid phase system, the gas phase system has no Debye-constraining maximum. We discuss the possible distributions for arbitrary N-conserving diatom-surface pairs, and include application to H:Si(111) as an example.

Computations are presented to describe and analyze the high levels of infrared laser-induced vibrational excitation of a monolayer of absorbed ¹³CO on a NaCl(100) surface. The calculations confirm that, for situations where the Debye frequency limited n domain restriction approximately holds, the vibrational state population deviates from a Boltzmann population linearly in n. Nonetheless, the full kinetic calculation is necessary to capture the result in detail.

We discuss the one-to-one relationship between N and γ and the examine the state space of the new distribution function for varied γ. We derive the Free Energy, F = NγkT − kTln(∑P_n), and effective chemical potential, μn ≈ γkT, for the vibrational pool. We also find the anti correlation of neighbor vibrations leads to an emergent correlation that appears to extend further than nearest neighbor.

Synthesis and characterization of 1,1-di-tert-butyldiazene

The synthesis and direct observation of 1,1-di-tert-butyldiazene (16) at -127°C is described. The absorption spectrum of a red solution of 1,1-diazene 16 reveals a structured absorption band with λ max at 506 run (Me_2O, -125°C). The vibrational spacing in S_1 is about 1200 cm^(-1). The excited state of 16 emits weakly with a single maximum at 715 run observed in the fluorescence spectrum (Me_2O:CD_2Cl_2, -196°C). The proton NMR spectrum of 16 occurs as a singlet at 1.41 ppm. Monitoring this NMR absorption at -94^0 ± 2°C shows that 1,1-diazene 16 decomposes with a first-order rate of 1.8 x 10^(-3) sec(-1) to form isobutane, isobutylene and hexarnethylethane. This rate is 10^8 and 10^(34) times faster than the thermal decomposition of the corresponding cis and trans 1,2-di-tert-butyldiazene isomers. The free energy of activation for decomposition of 1,1-diazene 16 is found to be 12.5 ± 0.2 kcal/mol at -94°C which is much lower than the values of 19.1 and 19.4 kcal/lmole calculated at -94°C for N-(2,2,6,6- tetramethylpiperidyl)nitrene (3) and N-(2,2,5,5- tetrarnethylpyrrolidyl)nitrene (4), respectively. This difference between 16 and the cyclic-1,1-diazenes 3 and 4 can be attributed to a large steric interaction between the tert-butyl groups in 1,1-diazene 16.

In order to investigate the nature of the singlet-triplet gap in 1,1-diazenes, 2,5-di-tert-butyl-N-pyrrolynitrene (22) was generated but was found to be too reactive towards dimerization to be persistent. In the presence of dimethylsulfoxide, however, N-pyrrolynitrene (22) can be trapped as N-(2,5-di-tert-butyl- N'-pyrrolyl)dimethylsulfoxirnine (38). N-(2,5-di-tert-butyl-N'-pyrrolyl)dimethylsulfoximine (38-d^6) exchanges with free dimethylsulfoxide at 50°C in solution, presumably by generation and retrapping of pyrrolynitrene 22.