Earthquakes of the Nepal Himalaya : towards a physical model of the seismic cycle

Home to hundreds of millions of souls and land of excessiveness, the Himalaya is also the locus of a unique seismicity whose scope and peculiarities still remain to this day somewhat mysterious. Having claimed the lives of kings, or turned ancient timeworn cities into heaps of rubbles and ruins, earthquakes eerily inhabit Nepalese folk tales with the fatalistic message that nothing lasts forever. From a scientific point of view as much as from a human perspective, solving the mysteries of Himalayan seismicity thus represents a challenge of prime importance. Documenting geodetic strain across the Nepal Himalaya with various GPS and leveling data, we show that unlike other subduction zones that exhibit a heterogeneous and patchy coupling pattern along strike, the last hundred kilometers of the Main Himalayan Thrust fault, or MHT, appear to be uniformly locked, devoid of any of the “creeping barriers” that traditionally ward off the propagation of large events. The approximately 20 mm/yr of reckoned convergence across the Himalaya matching previously established estimates of the secular deformation at the front of the arc, the slip accumulated at depth has to somehow elastically propagate all the way to the surface at some point. And yet, neither large events from the past nor currently recorded microseismicity nearly compensate for the massive moment deficit that quietly builds up under the giant mountains. Along with this large unbalanced moment deficit, the uncommonly homogeneous coupling pattern on the MHT raises the question of whether or not the locked portion of the MHT can rupture all at once in a giant earthquake. Univocally answering this question appears contingent on the still elusive estimate of the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake in the Himalaya, and requires tight constraints on local fault properties. What makes the Himalaya enigmatic also makes it the potential source of an incredible wealth of information, and we exploit some of the oddities of Himalayan seismicity in an effort to improve the understanding of earthquake physics and cipher out the properties of the MHT. Thanks to the Himalaya, the Indo-Gangetic plain is deluged each year under a tremendous amount of water during the annual summer monsoon that collects and bears down on the Indian plate enough to pull it away from the Eurasian plate slightly, temporarily relieving a small portion of the stress mounting on the MHT. As the rainwater evaporates in the dry winter season, the plate rebounds and tension is increased back on the fault. Interestingly, the mild waggle of stress induced by the monsoon rains is about the same size as that from solid-Earth tides which gently tug at the planets solid layers, but whereas changes in earthquake frequency correspond with the annually occurring monsoon, there is no such correlation with Earth tides, which oscillate back-and-forth twice a day. We therefore investigate the general response of the creeping and seismogenic parts of MHT to periodic stresses in order to link these observations to physical parameters. First, the response of the creeping part of the MHT is analyzed with a simple spring-and-slider system bearing rate-strengthening rheology, and we show that at the transition with the locked zone, where the friction becomes near velocity neutral, the response of the slip rate may be amplified at some periods, which values are analytically related to the physical parameters of the problem. Such predictions therefore hold the potential of constraining fault properties on the MHT, but still await observational counterparts to be applied, as nothing indicates that the variations of seismicity rate on the locked part of the MHT are the direct expressions of variations of the slip rate on its creeping part, and no variations of the slip rate have been singled out from the GPS measurements to this day. When shifting to the locked seismogenic part of the MHT, spring-and-slider models with rate-weakening rheology are insufficient to explain the contrasted responses of the seismicity to the periodic loads that tides and monsoon both place on the MHT. Instead, we resort to numerical simulations using the Boundary Integral CYCLes of Earthquakes algorithm and examine the response of a 2D finite fault embedded with a rate-weakening patch to harmonic stress perturbations of various periods. We show that such simulations are able to reproduce results consistent with a gradual amplification of sensitivity as the perturbing period get larger, up to a critical period corresponding to the characteristic time of evolution of the seismicity in response to a step-like perturbation of stress. This increase of sensitivity was not reproduced by simple 1D-spring-slider systems, probably because of the complexity of the nucleation process, reproduced only by 2D-fault models. When the nucleation zone is close to its critical unstable size, its growth becomes highly sensitive to any external perturbations and the timings of produced events may therefore find themselves highly affected. A fully analytical framework has yet to be developed and further work is needed to fully describe the behavior of the fault in terms of physical parameters, which will likely provide the keys to deduce constitutive properties of the MHT from seismological observations.

Part I. Influence of membrane morphology on ion-exchange and charge propagation in composite polyelectrolyte electrode coatings. Part II. Dynamic surface tension measurements of polarization relaxation at mercury pool electrodes by the method of Wilhelmy.

Part I. Novel composite polyelectrolyte materials were developed that exhibit desirable charge propagation and ion-retention properties. The morphology of electrode coatings cast from these materials was shown to be more important for its electrochemical behavior than its chemical composition.

Part II. The Wilhelmy plate technique for measuring dynamic surface tension was extended to electrified liquid-liquid interphases. The dynamical response of the aqueous NaF-mercury electrified interphase was examined by concomitant measurement of surface tension, current, and applied electrostatic potential. Observations of the surface tension response to linear sweep voltammetry and to step function perturbations in the applied electrostatic potential (e.g., chronotensiometry) provided strong evidence that relaxation processes proceed for time-periods that are at least an order of magnitude longer than the time periods necessary to establish diffusion equilibrium. The dynamical response of the surface tension is analyzed within the context of non-equilibrium thermodynamics and a kinetic model that requires three simultaneous first order processes.

Storm track response to perturbations in climate

This thesis advances our understanding of midlatitude storm tracks and how they respond to perturbations in the climate system. The midlatitude storm tracks are regions of maximal turbulent kinetic energy in the atmosphere. Through them, the bulk of the atmospheric transport of energy, water vapor, and angular momentum occurs in midlatitudes. Therefore, they are important regulators of climate, controlling basic features such as the distribution of surface temperatures, precipitation, and winds in midlatitudes. Storm tracks are robustly projected to shift poleward in global-warming simulations with current climate models. Yet the reasons for this shift have remained unclear. Here we show that this shift occurs even in extremely idealized (but still three-dimensional) simulations of dry atmospheres. We use these simulations to develop an understanding of the processes responsible for the shift and develop a conceptual model that accounts for it.

We demonstrate that changes in the convective static stability in the deep tropics alone can drive remote shifts in the midlatitude storm tracks. Through simulations with a dry idealized general circulation model (GCM), midlatitude storm tracks are shown to be located where the mean available potential energy (MAPE, a measure of the potential energy available to be converted into kinetic energy) is maximal. As the climate varies, even if only driven by tropical static stability changes, the MAPE maximum shifts primarily because of shifts of the maximum of near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The temperature gradients shift in response to changes in the width of the tropical Hadley circulation, whose width is affected by the tropical static stability. Storm tracks generally shift in tandem with shifts of the subtropical terminus of the Hadley circulation.

We develop a one-dimensional diffusive energy-balance model that links changes in the Hadley circulation to midlatitude temperature gradients and so to the storm tracks. It is the first conceptual model to incorporate a dynamical coupling between the tropical Hadley circulation and midlatitude turbulent energy transport. Numerical and analytical solutions of the model elucidate the circumstances of when and how the storm tracks shift in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley circulation. They illustrate how an increase of only the convective static stability in the deep tropics can lead to an expansion of the Hadley circulation and a poleward shift of storm tracks.

The simulations with the idealized GCM and the conceptual energy-balance model demonstrate a clear link between Hadley circulation dynamics and midlatitude storm track position. With the help of the hierarchy of models presented in this thesis, we obtain a closed theory of storm track shifts in dry climates. The relevance of this theory for more realistic moist climates is discussed.

Using Earth Deformation Caused by Surface Mass Loading to Constrain the Elastic Structure of the Crust and Mantle

Surface mass loads come in many different varieties, including the oceans, atmosphere, rivers, lakes, glaciers, ice caps, and snow fields. The loads migrate over Earth's surface on time scales that range from less than a day to many thousand years. The weights of the shifting loads exert normal forces on Earth's surface. Since the Earth is not perfectly rigid, the applied pressure deforms the shape of the solid Earth in a manner controlled by the material properties of Earth's interior. One of the most prominent types of surface mass loading, ocean tidal loading (OTL), comes from the periodic rise and fall in sea-surface height due to the gravitational influence of celestial objects, such as the moon and sun. Depending on geographic location, the surface displacements induced by OTL typically range from millimeters to several centimeters in amplitude, which may be inferred from Global Navigation and Satellite System (GNSS) measurements with sub-millimeter precision. Spatiotemporal characteristics of observed OTL-induced surface displacements may therefore be exploited to probe Earth structure. In this thesis, I present descriptions of contemporary observational and modeling techniques used to explore Earth's deformation response to OTL and other varieties of surface mass loading. With the aim to extract information about Earth's density and elastic structure from observations of the response to OTL, I investigate the sensitivity of OTL-induced surface displacements to perturbations in the material structure. As a case study, I compute and compare the observed and predicted OTL-induced surface displacements for a network of GNSS receivers across South America. The residuals in three distinct and dominant tidal bands are sub-millimeter in amplitude, indicating that modern ocean-tide and elastic-Earth models well predict the observed displacement response in that region. Nevertheless, the sub-millimeter residuals exhibit regional spatial coherency that cannot be explained entirely by random observational uncertainties and that suggests deficiencies in the forward-model assumptions. In particular, the discrepancies may reveal sensitivities to deviations from spherically symmetric, non-rotating, elastic, and isotropic (SNREI) Earth structure due to the presence of the South American craton.