6 resultados para Real Options Theory

em CaltechTHESIS


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In this thesis we uncover a new relation which links thermodynamics and information theory. We consider time as a channel and the detailed state of a physical system as a message. As the system evolves with time, ever present noise insures that the "message" is corrupted. Thermodynamic free energy measures the approach of the system toward equilibrium. Information theoretical mutual information measures the loss of memory of initial state. We regard the free energy and the mutual information as operators which map probability distributions over state space to real numbers. In the limit of long times, we show how the free energy operator and the mutual information operator asymptotically attain a very simple relationship to one another. This relationship is founded on the common appearance of entropy in the two operators and on an identity between internal energy and conditional entropy. The use of conditional entropy is what distinguishes our approach from previous efforts to relate thermodynamics and information theory.

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Methods that exploit the intrinsic locality of molecular interactions show significant promise in making tractable the electronic structure calculation of large-scale systems. In particular, embedded density functional theory (e-DFT) offers a formally exact approach to electronic structure calculations in which the interactions between subsystems are evaluated in terms of their electronic density. In the following dissertation, methodological advances of embedded density functional theory are described, numerically tested, and applied to real chemical systems.

First, we describe an e-DFT protocol in which the non-additive kinetic energy component of the embedding potential is treated exactly. Then, we present a general implementation of the exact calculation of the non-additive kinetic potential (NAKP) and apply it to molecular systems. We demonstrate that the implementation using the exact NAKP is in excellent agreement with reference Kohn-Sham calculations, whereas the approximate functionals lead to qualitative failures in the calculated energies and equilibrium structures.

Next, we introduce density-embedding techniques to enable the accurate and stable calculation of correlated wavefunction (CW) in complex environments. Embedding potentials calculated using e-DFT introduce the effect of the environment on a subsystem for CW calculations (WFT-in-DFT). We demonstrate that WFT-in-DFT calculations are in good agreement with CW calculations performed on the full complex.

We significantly improve the numerics of the algorithm by enforcing orthogonality between subsystems by introduction of a projection operator. Utilizing the projection-based embedding scheme, we rigorously analyze the sources of error in quantum embedding calculations in which an active subsystem is treated using CWs, and the remainder using density functional theory. We show that the embedding potential felt by the electrons in the active subsystem makes only a small contribution to the error of the method, whereas the error in the nonadditive exchange-correlation energy dominates. We develop an algorithm which corrects this term and demonstrate the accuracy of this corrected embedding scheme.

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Kohn-Sham density functional theory (KSDFT) is currently the main work-horse of quantum mechanical calculations in physics, chemistry, and materials science. From a mechanical engineering perspective, we are interested in studying the role of defects in the mechanical properties in materials. In real materials, defects are typically found at very small concentrations e.g., vacancies occur at parts per million, dislocation density in metals ranges from $10^{10} m^{-2}$ to $10^{15} m^{-2}$, and grain sizes vary from nanometers to micrometers in polycrystalline materials, etc. In order to model materials at realistic defect concentrations using DFT, we would need to work with system sizes beyond millions of atoms. Due to the cubic-scaling computational cost with respect to the number of atoms in conventional DFT implementations, such system sizes are unreachable. Since the early 1990s, there has been a huge interest in developing DFT implementations that have linear-scaling computational cost. A promising approach to achieving linear-scaling cost is to approximate the density matrix in KSDFT. The focus of this thesis is to provide a firm mathematical framework to study the convergence of these approximations. We reformulate the Kohn-Sham density functional theory as a nested variational problem in the density matrix, the electrostatic potential, and a field dual to the electron density. The corresponding functional is linear in the density matrix and thus amenable to spectral representation. Based on this reformulation, we introduce a new approximation scheme, called spectral binning, which does not require smoothing of the occupancy function and thus applies at arbitrarily low temperatures. We proof convergence of the approximate solutions with respect to spectral binning and with respect to an additional spatial discretization of the domain. For a standard one-dimensional benchmark problem, we present numerical experiments for which spectral binning exhibits excellent convergence characteristics and outperforms other linear-scaling methods.

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An experimental method combined with boundary layer theory is given for evaluating the added mass of a sphere moving along the axis of a circular cylinder filled with water or oil. The real fluid effects are separated from ideal fluid effects.

The experimental method consists essentially of a magnetic steel sphere propelled from rest by an electromagnetic coil in which the current is accurately controlled so that it only supplies force for a short time interval which is within the laminar flow regime of the fluid. The motion of the sphere as a function of time is recorded on single frame photographs using a short-arc multiple flash lamp with accurately controlled time intervals between flashes.

A concept of the effect of boundary layer displacement on the fluid flow around a sphere is introduced to evaluate the real fluid effects on the added mass. Surprisingly accurate agreement between experiment and theory is achieved.

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Time, risk, and attention are all integral to economic decision making. The aim of this work is to understand those key components of decision making using a variety of approaches: providing axiomatic characterizations to investigate time discounting, generating measures of visual attention to infer consumers' intentions, and examining data from unique field settings.

Chapter 2, co-authored with Federico Echenique and Kota Saito, presents the first revealed-preference characterizations of exponentially-discounted utility model and its generalizations. My characterizations provide non-parametric revealed-preference tests. I apply the tests to data from a recent experiment, and find that the axiomatization delivers new insights on a dataset that had been analyzed by traditional parametric methods.

Chapter 3, co-authored with Min Jeong Kang and Colin Camerer, investigates whether "pre-choice" measures of visual attention improve in prediction of consumers' purchase intentions. We measure participants' visual attention using eyetracking or mousetracking while they make hypothetical as well as real purchase decisions. I find that different patterns of visual attention are associated with hypothetical and real decisions. I then demonstrate that including information on visual attention improves prediction of purchase decisions when attention is measured with mousetracking.

Chapter 4 investigates individuals' attitudes towards risk in a high-stakes environment using data from a TV game show, Jeopardy!. I first quantify players' subjective beliefs about answering questions correctly. Using those beliefs in estimation, I find that the representative player is risk averse. I then find that trailing players tend to wager more than "folk" strategies that are known among the community of contestants and fans, and this tendency is related to their confidence. I also find gender differences: male players take more risk than female players, and even more so when they are competing against two other male players.

Chapter 5, co-authored with Colin Camerer, investigates the dynamics of the favorite-longshot bias (FLB) using data on horse race betting from an online exchange that allows bettors to trade "in-play." I find that probabilistic forecasts implied by market prices before start of the races are well-calibrated, but the degree of FLB increases significantly as the events approach toward the end.

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Let F = Ǫ(ζ + ζ –1) be the maximal real subfield of the cyclotomic field Ǫ(ζ) where ζ is a primitive qth root of unity and q is an odd rational prime. The numbers u1=-1, uk=(ζk-k)/(ζ-ζ-1), k=2,…,p, p=(q-1)/2, are units in F and are called the cyclotomic units. In this thesis the sign distribution of the conjugates in F of the cyclotomic units is studied.

Let G(F/Ǫ) denote the Galoi's group of F over Ǫ, and let V denote the units in F. For each σϵ G(F/Ǫ) and μϵV define a mapping sgnσ: V→GF(2) by sgnσ(μ) = 1 iff σ(μ) ˂ 0 and sgnσ(μ) = 0 iff σ(μ) ˃ 0. Let {σ1, ... , σp} be a fixed ordering of G(F/Ǫ). The matrix Mq=(sgnσj(vi) ) , i, j = 1, ... , p is called the matrix of cyclotomic signatures. The rank of this matrix determines the sign distribution of the conjugates of the cyclotomic units. The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is associated with an ideal in the ring GF(2) [x] / (xp+ 1) in such a way that the rank of the matrix equals the GF(2)-dimension of the ideal. It is shown that if p = (q-1)/ 2 is a prime and if 2 is a primitive root mod p, then Mq is non-singular. Also let p be arbitrary, let ℓ be a primitive root mod q and let L = {i | 0 ≤ i ≤ p-1, the least positive residue of defined by ℓi mod q is greater than p}. Let Hq(x) ϵ GF(2)[x] be defined by Hq(x) = g. c. d. ((Σ xi/I ϵ L) (x+1) + 1, xp + 1). It is shown that the rank of Mq equals the difference p - degree Hq(x).

Further results are obtained by using the reciprocity theorem of class field theory. The reciprocity maps for a certain abelian extension of F and for the infinite primes in F are associated with the signs of conjugates. The product formula for the reciprocity maps is used to associate the signs of conjugates with the reciprocity maps at the primes which lie above (2). The case when (2) is a prime in F is studied in detail. Let T denote the group of totally positive units in F. Let U be the group generated by the cyclotomic units. Assume that (2) is a prime in F and that p is odd. Let F(2) denote the completion of F at (2) and let V(2) denote the units in F(2). The following statements are shown to be equivalent. 1) The matrix of cyclotomic signatures is non-singular. 2) U∩T = U2. 3) U∩F2(2) = U2. 4) V(2)/ V(2)2 = ˂v1 V(2)2˃ ʘ…ʘ˂vp V(2)2˃ ʘ ˂3V(2)2˃.

The rank of Mq was computed for 5≤q≤929 and the results appear in tables. On the basis of these results and additional calculations the following conjecture is made: If q and p = (q -1)/ 2 are both primes, then Mq is non-singular.