The strategic behavior of rational novices

There is a growing amount of experimental evidence that suggests people often deviate from the predictions of game theory. Some scholars attempt to explain the observations by introducing errors into behavioral models. However, most of these modifications are situation dependent and do not generalize. A new theory, called the rational novice model, is introduced as an attempt to provide a general theory that takes account of erroneous behavior. The rational novice model is based on two central principals. The first is that people systematically make inaccurate guesses when they are evaluating their options in a game-like situation. The second is that people treat their decisions similar to a portfolio problem. As a result, non optimal actions in a game theoretic sense may be included in the rational novice strategy profile with positive weights.

The rational novice model can be divided into two parts: the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept. In a theoretical chapter, the mathematics of the behavioral model and the equilibrium concept are introduced. The existence of the equilibrium is established. In addition, the Nash equilibrium is shown to be a special case of the rational novice equilibrium. In another chapter, the rational novice model is applied to a voluntary contribution game. Numerical methods were used to obtain the solution. The model is estimated with data obtained from the Palfrey and Prisbrey experimental study of the voluntary contribution game. It is found that the rational novice model explains the data better than the Nash model. Although a formal statistical test was not used, pseudo R^2 analysis indicates that the rational novice model is better than a Probit model similar to the one used in the Palfrey and Prisbrey study.

The rational novice model is also applied to a first price sealed bid auction. Again, computing techniques were used to obtain a numerical solution. The data obtained from the Chen and Plott study were used to estimate the model. The rational novice model outperforms the CRRAM, the primary Nash model studied in the Chen and Plott study. However, the rational novice model is not the best amongst all models. A sophisticated rule-of-thumb, called the SOPAM, offers the best explanation of the data.

Temperature effects on the activity coefficient of the bicarbonate ion

Natural waters may be chemically studied as mixed electrolyte solutions. Some important equilibrium properties of natural waters are intimately related to the activity-concentration ratios (i.e., activity coefficients) of the ions in solution. An Ion Interaction Model, which is based on Pitzer's (1973) thermodynamic model, is proposed in this dissertation. The proposed model is capable of describing the activity coefficient of ions in mixed electrolyte solutions. The effects of temperature on the equilibrium conditions of natural waters and on the activity coefficients of the ions in solution, may be predicted by means of the Ion Interaction Model presented in this work.

The bicarbonate ion, HCO₃^-, is commonly found in natural waters. This anion plays an important role in the chemical and thermodynamic properties of water bodies. Such properties are usually directly related to the activity coefficient of HCO₃^- in solution. The Ion Interaction Model, as proposed in this dissertation, is used to describe indirectly measured activity coefficients of HCO₃^- in mixed electrolyte solutions.

Experimental pH measurements of MCl-MHCO₃ and MCl-H₂CO₃ solutions at 25°C (where M = K⁺, Na⁺, NH₄⁺, Ca²⁺ or Mg²⁺) are used in this dissertation to evaluate indirectly the MHCO₃ virial coefficients. Such coefficients permit the prediction of the activity coefficient of HCO₃^- in mixed electrolyte solutions. The Ion Interaction Model is found to be an accurate method for predicting the activity coefficient of HCO₃^- within the experimental ionic strengths (0.2 to 3.0 m). The virial coefficients of KHCO₃ and NaHCO₃ and their respective temperature variations are obtained from similar experimental measurements at 10° and 40°C. The temperature effects on the NH₄HCO₃, Ca(HCO₃)₂, and Mg(HCO₃)₂ virial coefficients are estimated based on these results and the temperature variations of the virial coefficients of 40 other electrolytes.

Finally, the Ion Interaction Model is utilized to solve various problems of water chemistry where bicarbonate is present in solution.

Rational design of zinc phosphide heterojunction photovoltaics

The prospect of terawatt-scale electricity generation using a photovoltaic (PV) device places strict requirements on the active semiconductor optoelectronic properties and elemental abundance. After reviewing the constraints placed on an "earth-abundant" solar absorber, we find zinc phosphide (α-Zn₃P₂) to be an ideal candidate. In addition to its near-optimal direct band gap of 1.5 eV, high visible-light absorption coefficient (>10⁴ cm^-1), and long minority-carrier diffusion length (>5 μm), Zn₃P₂ is composed of abundant Zn and P elements and has excellent physical properties for scalable thin-film deposition. However, to date, a Zn₃P₂ device of sufficient efficiency for commercial applications has not been demonstrated. Record efficiencies of 6.0% for multicrystalline and 4.3% for thin-film cells have been reported, respectively. Performance has been limited by the intrinsic p-type conductivity of Zn₃P₂ which restricts us to Schottky and heterojunction device designs. Due to our poor understanding of Zn₃P₂ interfaces, an ideal heterojunction partner has not yet been found.

The goal of this thesis is to explore the upper limit of solar conversion efficiency achievable with a Zn₃P₂ absorber through the design of an optimal heterojunction PV device. To do so, we investigate three key aspects of material growth, interface energetics, and device design. First, the growth of Zn₃P₂ on GaAs(001) is studied using compound-source molecular-beam epitaxy (MBE). We successfully demonstrate the pseudomorphic growth of Zn₃P₂ epilayers of controlled orientation and optoelectronic properties. Next, the energy-band alignments of epitaxial Zn₃P₂ and II-VI and III-V semiconductor interfaces are measured via high-resolution x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy in order to determine the most appropriate heterojunction partner. From this work, we identify ZnSe as a nearly ideal n-type emitter for a Zn₃P₂ PV device. Finally, various II-VI/Zn₃P₂ heterojunction solar cells designs are fabricated, including substrate and superstrate architectures, and evaluated based on their solar conversion efficiency.

Hall coefficient and resistivity of an amorphous palladium-silicon alloy

The Hall coefficient and resistance in several specimens of an amorphous metallic alloy containing 80 at.% palladium and 20 at.% silicon have been investigated at temperatures between 4.2°K and room temperature. An ideal limiting behavior of these transport coefficients was analyzed on the basis of the nearly free electron model to yield a carrier density of 9 x 10²² cm.^-3, or about 1.7 electrons per palladium atom, and a mean free path of about 9Å which is almost constant with temperature. The deviations of the individual specimens from this ideal behavior, which were small but noticeable in the relative resistivity and much greater in the Hall coefficient, can be explained by invoking disk-shaped crystalline regions with low resistivity and a positive Hall coefficient. A detailed calculation shows how a volume fraction of such crystalline material too small to be noticed in X-ray diffraction could have a significant effect on the resistivity and a much greater effect on the Hall coefficient.

I. Baryon-antibaryon phase transition at high temperature. II. Inclusive virtual photon-hadron reactions in the parton model

Part I

Present experimental data on nucleon-antinucleon scattering allow a study of the possibility of a phase transition in a nucleon-antinucleon gas at high temperature. Estimates can be made of the general behavior of the elastic phase shifts without resorting to theoretical derivation. A phase transition which separates nucleons from antinucleons is found at about 280 MeV in the approximation of the second virial coefficient to the free energy of the gas.

Part II

The parton model is used to derive scaling laws for the hadrons observed in deep inelastic electron-nucleon scattering which lie in the fragmentation region of the virtual photon. Scaling relations are obtained in the Bjorken and Regge regions. It is proposed that the distribution functions become independent of both q² and ν where the Bjorken and Regge regions overlap. The quark density functions are discussed in the limit x→1 for the nucleon octet and the pseudoscalar mesons. Under certain plausible assumptions it is found that only one or two quarks of the six types of quarks and antiquarks have an appreciable density function in the limit x→1. This has implications for the quark fragmentation functions near the large momentum boundary of their fragmentation region. These results are used to propose a method of measuring the proton and neutron quark density functions for all x by making measurements on inclusively produced hadrons in electroproduction only. Implications are also discussed for the hadrons produced in electron-positron annihilation.