On the solution of first excursion problems by simulation with applications to probabilistic seismic performance assessment

In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

Nonstationary response of structures and its application to earthquake engineering

This thesis presents a simplified state-variable method to solve for the nonstationary response of linear MDOF systems subjected to a modulated stationary excitation in both time and frequency domains. The resulting covariance matrix and evolutionary spectral density matrix of the response may be expressed as a product of a constant system matrix and a time-dependent matrix, the latter can be explicitly evaluated for most envelopes currently prevailing in engineering. The stationary correlation matrix of the response may be found by taking the limit of the covariance response when a unit step envelope is used. The reliability analysis can then be performed based on the first two moments of the response obtained.

The method presented facilitates obtaining explicit solutions for general linear MDOF systems and is flexible enough to be applied to different stochastic models of excitation such as the stationary models, modulated stationary models, filtered stationary models, and filtered modulated stationary models and their stochastic equivalents including the random pulse train model, filtered shot noise, and some ARMA models in earthquake engineering. This approach may also be readily incorporated into finite element codes for random vibration analysis of linear structures.

A set of explicit solutions for the response of simple linear structures subjected to modulated white noise earthquake models with four different envelopes are presented as illustration. In addition, the method has been applied to three selected topics of interest in earthquake engineering, namely, nonstationary analysis of primary-secondary systems with classical or nonclassical dampings, soil layer response and related structural reliability analysis, and the effect of the vertical components on seismic performance of structures. For all the three cases, explicit solutions are obtained, dynamic characteristics of structures are investigated, and some suggestions are given for aseismic design of structures.

Robust near-threshold QDI circuit analysis and design

The two most important digital-system design goals today are to reduce power consumption and to increase reliability. Reductions in power consumption improve battery life in the mobile space and reductions in energy lower operating costs in the datacenter. Increased robustness and reliability shorten down time, improve yield, and are invaluable in the context of safety-critical systems. While optimizing towards these two goals is important at all design levels, optimizations at the circuit level have the furthest reaching effects; they apply to all digital systems. This dissertation presents a study of robust minimum-energy digital circuit design and analysis. It introduces new device models, metrics, and methods of calculation—all necessary first steps towards building better systems—and demonstrates how to apply these techniques. It analyzes a fabricated chip (a full-custom QDI microcontroller designed at Caltech and taped-out in 40-nm silicon) by calculating the minimum energy operating point and quantifying the chip’s robustness in the face of both timing and functional failures.

Analysis-aware design of embedded systems software

In the past many different methodologies have been devised to support software development and different sets of methodologies have been developed to support the analysis of software artefacts. We have identified this mismatch as one of the causes of the poor reliability of embedded systems software. The issue with software development styles is that they are ``analysis-agnostic.'' They do not try to structure the code in a way that lends itself to analysis. The analysis is usually applied post-mortem after the software was developed and it requires a large amount of effort. The issue with software analysis methodologies is that they do not exploit available information about the system being analyzed.

In this thesis we address the above issues by developing a new methodology, called "analysis-aware" design, that links software development styles with the capabilities of analysis tools. This methodology forms the basis of a framework for interactive software development. The framework consists of an executable specification language and a set of analysis tools based on static analysis, testing, and model checking. The language enforces an analysis-friendly code structure and offers primitives that allow users to implement their own testers and model checkers directly in the language. We introduce a new approach to static analysis that takes advantage of the capabilities of a rule-based engine. We have applied the analysis-aware methodology to the development of a smart home application.