Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Symmetric representation of an integral domain over a subdomain

Let F(θ) be a separable extension of degree n of a field F. Let Δ and D be integral domains with quotient fields F(θ) and F respectively. Assume that Δ ᴝ D. A mapping φ of Δ into the n x n D matrices is called a Δ/D rep if (i) it is a ring isomorphism and (ii) it maps d onto dI_n whenever d ϵ D. If the matrices are also symmetric, φ is a Δ/D symrep.

Every Δ/D rep can be extended uniquely to an F(θ)/F rep. This extension is completely determined by the image of θ. Two Δ/D reps are called equivalent if the images of θ differ by a D unimodular similarity. There is a one-to-one correspondence between classes of Δ/D reps and classes of Δ ideals having an n element basis over D.

The condition that a given Δ/D rep class contain a Δ/D symrep can be phrased in various ways. Using these formulations it is possible to (i) bound the number of symreps in a given class, (ii) count the number of symreps if F is finite, (iii) establish the existence of an F(θ)/F symrep when n is odd, F is an algebraic number field, and F(θ) is totally real if F is formally real (for n = 3 see Sapiro, “Characteristic polynomials of symmetric matrices” Sibirsk. Mat. Ž. 3 (1962) pp. 280-291), and (iv) study the case D = Z, the integers (see Taussky, “On matrix classes corresponding to an ideal and its inverse” Illinois J. Math. 1 (1957) pp. 108-113 and Faddeev, “On the characteristic equations of rational symmetric matrices” Dokl. Akad. Nauk SSSR 58 (1947) pp. 753-754).

The case D = Z and n = 2 is studied in detail. Let Δ’ be an integral domain also having quotient field F(θ) and such that Δ’ ᴝ Δ. Let φ be a Δ/Z symrep. A method is given for finding a Δ’/Z symrep ʘ such that the Δ’ ideal class corresponding to the class of ʘ is an extension to Δ’ of the Δ ideal class corresponding to the class of φ. The problem of finding all Δ/Z symreps equivalent to a given one is studied.

Theoretical investigation of turbulent boundary layer over a wavy surface

The important features of the two-dimensional incompressible turbulent flow over a wavy surface of wavelength comparable with the boundary layer thickness are analyzed.

A turbulent field method using model equation for turbulent shear stress similar to the scheme of Bradshaw, Ferriss and Atwell (1967) is employed with suitable modification to cover the viscous sublayer. The governing differential equations are linearized based on the small but finite amplitude to wavelength ratio. An orthogonal wavy coordinate system, accurate to the second order in the amplitude ratio, is adopted to avoid the severe restriction to the validity of linearization due to the large mean velocity gradient near the wall. Analytic solution up to the second order is obtained by using the method of matched-asymptotic-expansion based on the large Reynolds number and hence the small skin friction coefficient.

In the outer part of the layer, the perturbed flow is practically "inviscid." Solutions for the velocity, Reynolds stress and also the wall pressure distributions agree well with the experimental measurement. In the wall region where the perturbed Reynolds stress plays an important role in the process of momentum transport, only a qualitative agreement is obtained. The results also show that the nonlinear second-order effect is negligible for amplitude ratio of 0.03. The discrepancies in the detailed structure of the velocity, shear stress, and skin friction distributions near the wall suggest modifications to the model are required to describe the present problem.