A quantitative investigation of the solar modulation of cosmic-ray protons and helium nuclei

The differential energy spectra of cosmic-ray protons and He nuclei have been measured at energies up to 315 MeV/nucleon using balloon- and satellite-borne instruments. These spectra are presented for solar quiet times for the years 1966 through 1970. The data analysis is verified by extensive accelerator calibrations of the detector systems and by calculations and measurements of the production of secondary protons in the atmosphere.

The spectra of protons and He nuclei in this energy range are dominated by the solar modulation of the local interstellar spectra. The transport equation governing this process includes as parameters the solar-wind velocity, V, and a diffusion coefficient, K(r,R), which is assumed to be a scalar function of heliocentric radius, r, and magnetic rigidity, R. The interstellar spectra, j_D, enter as boundary conditions on the solutions to the transport equation. Solutions to the transport equation have been calculated for a broad range of assumed values for K(r,R) and j_D and have been compared with the measured spectra.

It is found that the solutions may be characterized in terms of a dimensionless parameter, ψ(r,R) = ^∞∫_r V dr'/(K(r',R). The amount of modulation is roughly proportional to ψ. At high energies or far from the Sun, where the modulation is weak, the solution is determined primarily by the value of ψ (and the interstellar spectrum) and is not sensitive to the radial dependence of the diffusion coefficient. At low energies and for small r, where the effects of adiabatic deceleration are found to be large, the spectra are largely determined by the radial dependence of the diffusion coefficient and are not very sensitive to the magnitude of ψ or to the interstellar spectra. This lack of sensitivity to j_D implies that the shape of the spectra at Earth cannot be used to determine the interstellar intensities at low energies.

Values of ψ determined from electron data were used to calculate the spectra of protons and He nuclei near Earth. Interstellar spectra of the form j_D α (W - 0.25m)^-2.65 for both protons and He nuclei were found to yield the best fits to the measured spectra for these values of ψ, where W is the total energy and m is the rest energy. A simple model for the diffusion coefficient was used in which the radial and rigidity dependence are separable and K is independent of radius inside a modulation region which has a boundary at a distance D. Good agreement was found between the measured and calculated spectra for the years 1965 through 1968, using typical boundary distances of 2.7 and 6.1 A.U. The proton spectra observed in 1969 and 1970 were flatter than in previous years. This flattening could be explained in part by an increase in D, but also seemed to require that a noticeable fraction of the observed protons at energies as high at 50 to 100 MeV be attributed to quiet-time solar emission. The turnup in the spectra at low energies observed in all years was also attributed to solar emission. The diffusion coefficient used to fit the 1965 spectra is in reasonable agreement with that determined from the power spectra of the interplanetary magnetic field (Jokipii and Coleman, 1968). We find a factor of roughly 3 increase in ψ from 1965 to 1970, corresponding to the roughly order of magnitude decrease in the proton intensity at 250 MeV. The change in ψ might be attributed to a decrease in the diffusion coefficient, or, if the diffusion coefficient is essentially unchanged over that period (Mathews et al., 1971), might be attributed to an increase in the boundary distance, D.

Formal methods in the foundations of science

The intent of this study is to provide formal apparatus which facilitates the investigation of problems in the methodology of science. The introduction contains several examples of such problems and motivates the subsequent formalism.

A general definition of a formal language is presented, and this definition is used to characterize an individual’s view of the world around him. A notion of empirical observation is developed which is independent of language. The interplay of formal language and observation is taken as the central theme. The process of science is conceived as the finding of that formal language that best expresses the available experimental evidence.

To characterize the manner in which a formal language imposes structure on its universe of discourse, the fundamental concepts of elements and states of a formal language are introduced. Using these, the notion of a basis for a formal language is developed as a collection of minimal states distinguishable within the language. The relation of these concepts to those of model theory is discussed.

An a priori probability defined on sets of observations is postulated as a reflection of an individual’s ontology. This probability, in conjunction with a formal language and a basis for that language, induces a subjective probability describing an individual’s conceptual view of admissible configurations of the universe. As a function of this subjective probability, and consequently of language, a measure of the informativeness of empirical observations is introduced and is shown to be intuitively plausible – particularly in the case of scientific experimentation.

The developed formalism is then systematically applied to the general problems presented in the introduction. The relationship of scientific theories to empirical observations is discussed and the need for certain tacit, unstatable knowledge is shown to be necessary to fully comprehend the meaning of realistic theories. The idea that many common concepts can be specified only by drawing on knowledge obtained from an infinite number of observations is presented, and the problems of reductionism are examined in this context.

A definition of when one formal language can be considered to be more expressive than another is presented, and the change in the informativeness of an observation as language changes is investigated. In this regard it is shown that the information inherent in an observation may decrease for a more expressive language.

The general problem of induction and its relation to the scientific method are discussed. Two hypotheses concerning an individual’s selection of an optimal language for a particular domain of discourse are presented and specific examples from the introduction are examined.