Efficient methods for empirical tests of behavioral economics theories in laboratory and field experiments

In the quest for a descriptive theory of decision-making, the rational actor model in economics imposes rather unrealistic expectations and abilities on human decision makers. The further we move from idealized scenarios, such as perfectly competitive markets, and ambitiously extend the reach of the theory to describe everyday decision making situations, the less sense these assumptions make. Behavioural economics has instead proposed models based on assumptions that are more psychologically realistic, with the aim of gaining more precision and descriptive power. Increased psychological realism, however, comes at the cost of a greater number of parameters and model complexity. Now there are a plethora of models, based on different assumptions, applicable in differing contextual settings, and selecting the right model to use tends to be an ad-hoc process. In this thesis, we develop optimal experimental design methods and evaluate different behavioral theories against evidence from lab and field experiments.

We look at evidence from controlled laboratory experiments. Subjects are presented with choices between monetary gambles or lotteries. Different decision-making theories evaluate the choices differently and would make distinct predictions about the subjects' choices. Theories whose predictions are inconsistent with the actual choices can be systematically eliminated. Behavioural theories can have multiple parameters requiring complex experimental designs with a very large number of possible choice tests. This imposes computational and economic constraints on using classical experimental design methods. We develop a methodology of adaptive tests: Bayesian Rapid Optimal Adaptive Designs (BROAD) that sequentially chooses the "most informative" test at each stage, and based on the response updates its posterior beliefs over the theories, which informs the next most informative test to run. BROAD utilizes the Equivalent Class Edge Cutting (EC²) criteria to select tests. We prove that the EC² criteria is adaptively submodular, which allows us to prove theoretical guarantees against the Bayes-optimal testing sequence even in the presence of noisy responses. In simulated ground-truth experiments, we find that the EC² criteria recovers the true hypotheses with significantly fewer tests than more widely used criteria such as Information Gain and Generalized Binary Search. We show, theoretically as well as experimentally, that surprisingly these popular criteria can perform poorly in the presence of noise, or subject errors. Furthermore, we use the adaptive submodular property of EC² to implement an accelerated greedy version of BROAD which leads to orders of magnitude speedup over other methods.

We use BROAD to perform two experiments. First, we compare the main classes of theories for decision-making under risk, namely: expected value, prospect theory, constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) and moments models. Subjects are given an initial endowment, and sequentially presented choices between two lotteries, with the possibility of losses. The lotteries are selected using BROAD, and 57 subjects from Caltech and UCLA are incentivized by randomly realizing one of the lotteries chosen. Aggregate posterior probabilities over the theories show limited evidence in favour of CRRA and moments' models. Classifying the subjects into types showed that most subjects are described by prospect theory, followed by expected value. Adaptive experimental design raises the possibility that subjects could engage in strategic manipulation, i.e. subjects could mask their true preferences and choose differently in order to obtain more favourable tests in later rounds thereby increasing their payoffs. We pay close attention to this problem; strategic manipulation is ruled out since it is infeasible in practice, and also since we do not find any signatures of it in our data.

In the second experiment, we compare the main theories of time preference: exponential discounting, hyperbolic discounting, "present bias" models: quasi-hyperbolic (α, β) discounting and fixed cost discounting, and generalized-hyperbolic discounting. 40 subjects from UCLA were given choices between 2 options: a smaller but more immediate payoff versus a larger but later payoff. We found very limited evidence for present bias models and hyperbolic discounting, and most subjects were classified as generalized hyperbolic discounting types, followed by exponential discounting.

In these models the passage of time is linear. We instead consider a psychological model where the perception of time is subjective. We prove that when the biological (subjective) time is positively dependent, it gives rise to hyperbolic discounting and temporal choice inconsistency.

We also test the predictions of behavioral theories in the "wild". We pay attention to prospect theory, which emerged as the dominant theory in our lab experiments of risky choice. Loss aversion and reference dependence predicts that consumers will behave in a uniquely distinct way than the standard rational model predicts. Specifically, loss aversion predicts that when an item is being offered at a discount, the demand for it will be greater than that explained by its price elasticity. Even more importantly, when the item is no longer discounted, demand for its close substitute would increase excessively. We tested this prediction using a discrete choice model with loss-averse utility function on data from a large eCommerce retailer. Not only did we identify loss aversion, but we also found that the effect decreased with consumers' experience. We outline the policy implications that consumer loss aversion entails, and strategies for competitive pricing.

In future work, BROAD can be widely applicable for testing different behavioural models, e.g. in social preference and game theory, and in different contextual settings. Additional measurements beyond choice data, including biological measurements such as skin conductance, can be used to more rapidly eliminate hypothesis and speed up model comparison. Discrete choice models also provide a framework for testing behavioural models with field data, and encourage combined lab-field experiments.

Smooth sets for borel equivalence relations and the covering property for σ-ideals of compact sets

This thesis is divided into three chapters. In the first chapter we study the smooth sets with respect to a Borel equivalence realtion E on a Polish space X. The collection of smooth sets forms σ-ideal. We think of smooth sets as analogs of countable sets and we show that an analog of the perfect set theorem for Σ¹₁ sets holds in the context of smooth sets. We also show that the collection of Σ¹₁ smooth sets is ∏¹₁ on the codes. The analogs of thin sets are called sparse sets. We prove that there is a largest ∏¹₁ sparse set and we give a characterization of it. We show that in L there is a ∏¹₁ sparse set which is not smooth. These results are analogs of the results known for the ideal of countable sets, but it remains open to determine if large cardinal axioms imply that ∏¹₁ sparse sets are smooth. Some more specific results are proved for the case of a countable Borel equivalence relation. We also study I(E), the σ-ideal of closed E-smooth sets. Among other things we prove that E is smooth iff I(E) is Borel.

In chapter 2 we study σ-ideals of compact sets. We are interested in the relationship between some descriptive set theoretic properties like thinness, strong calibration and the covering property. We also study products of σ-ideals from the same point of view. In chapter 3 we show that if a σ-ideal I has the covering property (which is an abstract version of the perfect set theorem for Σ¹₁ sets), then there is a largest ∏¹₁ set in I^int (i.e., every closed subset of it is in I). For σ-ideals on 2^ω we present a characterization of this set in a similar way as for C₁, the largest thin ∏¹₁ set. As a corollary we get that if there are only countable many reals in L, then the covering property holds for Σ¹₂ sets.

On an embedding property of generalized Carter subgroups

If E and F are saturated formations, we say that E is strongly contained in F if for any solvable group G with E-subgroup, E, and F-subgroup, F, some conjugate of E is contained in F. In this paper, we investigate the problem of finding the formations which strongly contain a fixed saturated formation E.

Our main results are restricted to formations, E, such that E = {G|G/F(G) ϵT}, where T is a non-empty formation of solvable groups, and F(G) is the Fitting subgroup of G. If T consists only of the identity, then E=N, the class of nilpotent groups, and for any solvable group, G, the N-subgroups of G are the Carter subgroups of G.

We give a characterization of strong containment which depends only on the formations E, and F. From this characterization, we prove:

If T is a non-empty formation of solvable groups, E = {G|G/F(G) ϵT}, and E is strongly contained in F, then

(1) there is a formation V such that F = {G|G/F(G) ϵV}.

(2) If for each prime p, we assume that T does not contain the class, S_p’, of all solvable p’-groups, then either E = F, or F contains all solvable groups.

This solves the problem for the Carter subgroups.

We prove the following result to show that the hypothesis of (2) is not redundant:

If R = {G|G/F(G) ϵS_r’}, then there are infinitely many formations which strongly contain R.

Rings faithfully represented on their left socle

In 1964 A. W. Goldie [1] posed the problem of determining all rings with identity and minimal condition on left ideals which are faithfully represented on the right side of their left socle. Goldie showed that such a ring which is indecomposable and in which the left and right principal indecomposable ideals have, respectively, unique left and unique right composition series is a complete blocked triangular matrix ring over a skewfield. The general problem suggested above is very difficult. We obtain results under certain natural restrictions which are much weaker than the restrictive assumptions made by Goldie.

We characterize those rings in which the principal indecomposable left ideals each contain a unique minimal left ideal (Theorem (4.2)). It is sufficient to handle indecomposable rings (Lemma (1.4)). Such a ring is also a blocked triangular matrix ring. There exist r positive integers K₁,..., K_r such that the i,j^th block of a typical matrix is a K_i x K_j matrix with arbitrary entries in a subgroup D_ij of the additive group of a fixed skewfield D. Each D_ii is a sub-skewfield of D and D_ri = D for all i. Conversely, every matrix ring which has this form is indecomposable, faithfully represented on the right side of its left socle, and possesses the property that every principal indecomposable left ideal contains a unique minimal left ideal.

The principal indecomposable left ideals may have unique composition series even though the ring does not have minimal condition on right ideals. We characterize this situation by defining a partial ordering ρ on {i, 2,...,r} where we set iρj if D_ij ≠ 0. Every principal indecomposable left ideal has a unique composition series if and only if the diagram of ρ is an inverted tree and every D_ij is a one-dimensional left vector space over D_ii (Theorem (5.4)).

We show (Theorem (2.2)) that every ring A of the type we are studying is a unique subdirect sum of less complex rings A₁,...,A_s of the same type. Namely, each A_i has only one isomorphism class of minimal left ideals and the minimal left ideals of different A_i are non-isomorphic as left A-modules. We give (Theorem (2.1)) necessary and sufficient conditions for a ring which is a subdirect sum of rings A_i having these properties to be faithfully represented on the right side of its left socle. We show ((4.F), p. 42) that up to technical trivia the rings A_i are matrix rings of the form

[...]. Each Q_j comes from the faithful irreducible matrix representation of a certain skewfield over a fixed skewfield D. The bottom row is filled in by arbitrary elements of D.

In Part V we construct an interesting class of rings faithfully represented on their left socle from a given partial ordering on a finite set, given skewfields, and given additive groups. This class of rings contains the ones in which every principal indecomposable left ideal has a unique minimal left ideal. We identify the uniquely determined subdirect summands mentioned above in terms of the given partial ordering (Proposition (5.2)). We conjecture that this technique serves to construct all the rings which are a unique subdirect sum of rings each having the property that every principal-indecomposable left ideal contains a unique minimal left ideal.